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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Lmao wut

fv3p_asnow_eus_30.png
 
Bordereline major to major SN/IP/ZR storms at ATL during 29 weak to low end moderate El Nino winters since 1876-7:

12/29, 12/31-1/1, 1/1, 1/7, 1/8, 1/22, 1/23, 1/23, 1/26, 1/28-9, 2/4-6, 2/7-8, 2/15, 2/23, 2/26, 3/2, 3/2, 3/14 meaning main clumps very late Dec-early Jan, late Jan-early Feb, and late Feb-very early Mar. Middle 1/3's of DJF pretty quiet for whatever reason, which may be randomness.

- 18 storms during 16 winters (two winters had two, each) out of a total of ~29 weak to low end moderate Nino winters since 1876-7. So, ~55% chance per weak to low end moderate Nino winter for borderline major to major SN, IP, and/or ZR at ATL.
- 6 of these 18 during 5 of the 29 winters were a major ZR: 1/7, 1/8, 1/23, 1/28-9, 2/4-6, 2/7-8 (these last two back to back in 1905)
- The other 12 were mainly SN or IP: 12/29, 12/31-1/1, 1/1, 1/22, 1/23, 1/26, 2/15, 2/23, 2/26, 3/2, 3/2, 3/14
 
What Ive learned from watching these dagum models and threads over the past fifteen years is this. No one knew what the next few weeks would do and that is still the case.

So far the climate models have flip flopped, the Euro weeklies have flip flopped, December was gonna torch, until it wasnt and now it is again, the PV was gonna strengthen and kill winter until it is now under a SSW event.

Everyone one needs to get outside and get some fresh air.
 
Interesting runs tonight. Euro dug a bit further south and goofus and new goofus did as well. 2m temps going to need to continue to trend better tho
 
I was just taking a look over the 0z Euro, the low does close off, but the track of low is further south and east than the 0z GFS. The Euro is also warmer. At this time, I would go between the two with the track of low. The low may develop further south like what the 0z Euro showed, but I think it will still track just west of the apps. I say this because, as the low tracks northeastward, a ridge builds in over central/south central Canada (roughly) and far southeastern/eastern Canada. If that holds, the trajectory of low would be just west of the apps, because the low wants to make it between those ridges. The GFS OP has been fairly consistent with the track of low over the past days (5 total runs now since the 18z run Friday) Still, the snow chances are there for northern AL/GA/TN up thought the apps.
 
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