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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Webberweather53 said:
The climatological window in which most El Nino winters throughout the observed record have benefited the Carolinas the most is sometime during the 2nd half of January and thru early March. Before some lose their minds over impatience, it's important to remind them that this year has an argument to be the snowiest El Nino winter, and perhaps the snowiest winter in general thru the 2nd week of December on record with arguably the biggest winter storm observed this early in the season, and our statewide average on the year is already ahead of about 35-45% of entire winters already thanks to that storm last week, and we're a really long ways from when most El Nino winters like this typically hit their stride, and to be quite honest we're putting a serious hurting on most El Nino winters atm, it's not even close. If we get 1 more storm of comparable magnitude to the December 8-10th event later this winter, that would give NC as a whole more snow than all of last winter, which was among the snowiest of the 2000s thus far.

Via World Climate Service, polar vortex displacement events, like the one that's forecast to occur near the end of December this winter, are usually not followed by a tropospheric response (negative NAO/AO) until about 3 weeks later which ironically also puts us somewhere around mid to perhaps late January to benefit from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.

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Usually, in El Nino winters, the biggest event of the season in NC doesn't show up until mid-late January and sometimes as late as mid-late March, this winter is far from over and you could even perhaps go insofar as to say the best is yet to come. Just be patient...

Here's a few examples that came to my mind from both recent & ancient NINO winters with the biggest event of the winter in this aforementioned window (mid January- early March) during a NINO background state. I could come up with more examples (February 9-11 1973, March 1-2 1980, etc.) but I'm pretty sure you'll get the point well before then.
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In other words, take Calipari's advice and enjoy the process
 
0z GFS run, I do notice some difference between the 18z and 0z at H5. The northern stream is digging down further. Phase may happen a lot sooner than on previous runs. Also, this run maybe colder with more snow acorss the south.
 
gfs_asnow_seus_25.png
 
This is looking pretty good to me on the GFS...getting pretty frustrated that I might miss out on at least seeing some snow showers because I'm going to Lafayette a little over a day after it.

Not really a case where I'd chase as I'd be wasting my time since we're all going...
 
That looks so beautiful on the 0z GFS tonight. Nice comma shape, (at hr 132) that's an indication that it's indeed a strong low. Nice wrap around snows. Things keep getting better and better with this system. Who knows, this may end up being a strong winter storm for some. Plus, it's going to be really windy behind that low, no doubt about it, wind chills would be really cold!
 
Winter storm for Alabama Tennessee Georgia western nc. But upstate South Carolina won’t see nothing out of this one


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WxWatch said:
That looks so beautiful on the 0z GFS tonight. Nice comma shape, (at hr 132) that's an indication that it's indeed a strong low. Nice wrap around snows. Things keep getting better and better with this system. Who knows, this may end up being a strong winter storm for some. Plus, it's going to be really windy behind that low, no doubt about it, wind chills would be really cold!
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Hopefully we will. I have Never remember seeing a setup like this one.
 
Folks that will be on the east side of low, beware that there maybe severe weather with this strong storm system. That's a very fast flowing jet streak, severe wx is likely. With a setup like this, strong severe storms aren't out of the question.
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