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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Storm5 said:
I keep seeing posts about how there isn’t a good cold source and that the cold is on the other side of the world . The op runs have Canada cold as Sh** , the gefs has Canada cold as s$$$ in the medium to long range as well


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That is one good change that is occurring. Currently trop PV is in Siberia but a piece heads toward NA.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Big ridge out west. If a clipper is going to deliver for folks in the south, I would imagine this is how it needs to be done View attachment 9138
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Just curious about consistancy in this time period with this model, this was yesterday at 240 on the 12z fv3....How does it compare to 210 18z today?
 
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I'm fine as long as we start seeing a good pattern emerging on the models at new years, and we can start cranking it mid January. Ninos are supposed to be backloaded anyway, and this year may just live up to that expectation. If we start seeing glory on the models 1/1 I'm good. After that, and were still seeing crud way out I'll start being bummed a bit. I'd hate to lose January as a whole. But I really think the mjo is running the show, whenever we get into phase 8 again well get the ball rolling again. From what I understand that thing is pulsing at a good clip so it shouldn't be too long.

I got 6 inches of snow, still some on the ground. I'm good for a month for sure!:)
 
To funny. While all the other models say doom and gloom.......the CFSV2 paints a different picture
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If that low develops a lot sooner, further south, and if the track changes more to the east, there would be more snow across the south. The track of low still has a chance at changing. The GEFS MSLP anomaly (that I posted above) has the track of low more east. Still another full week out. Nice to see something at least we can track this weekend and next week.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Guess he’s watching cold chasing moisture. A shot nonetheless. Man look at that 540 line deep into the gulf. Sexy View attachment 9178
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That isnt cold chasing moisture, its wrap around precip in the cold sector of a low pressure system. When people use the term "cold chasing moisture" it is a weenie way of saying what most people call a Cold Front.
 
Arcc said:
That isnt cold chasing moisture, its wrap around precip in the cold sector of a low pressure system. When people use the term "cold chasing moisture" it is a weenie way of saying what most people call a Cold Front.
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yeah I had one eye open looking at surface maps. Looks legit at 500
 
Euro op is very close to this as well. Let's see what doc brings tonight. Actually doc is deeper with the upper trof
 
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