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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Rain Cold said:
It's not a bad pattern as in temps are going to be blazing into the 70s and 80s. But it doesn't look like it will be conducive to any wintry threats for most of the SE. There isn't enough of a cold air tap, and there is the usual dirth of high pressure to the north. Plenty of lows swinging by up there, though. It's what happens when you have an energetic Pac Jet with no sustained PNA. This is all speculation based on what the models are showing currently. It might change at 18z. But I'm starting to have this feeling that we're going to still be having this discussion at the end of the month.
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There is no sugar coating this. We can hang our hat on it’s wrong and it will change tomorrow though.

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Kylo said:
There is no sugar coating this. We can hang our hat on it’s wrong and it will change tomorrow though.

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Post these maps with caution. Some people will say you are heat mongering and are being annoying ??‍♂️

Low over Alaska. Low near Greenland. Trough out west. Ridge in the east. Ugly. Just plain ugly. But probably at least a half truth modeled in there somewhere
 
ontherocks said:
Speaking of MJO, since it’s somewhat slow in here, can someone give me a brief synopsis of what this is/how it works? Or point me to an article where I can get some learns on this? Thanks!
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Go to our WIKI link and "Search MJO". This will answer your questions. The WIKI link is a great tool and source of info.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Post these maps with caution. Some people will say you are heat mongering and are being annoying ??‍♂️

Low over Alaska. Low near Greenland. Trough out west. Ridge in the east. Ugly. Just plain ugly. But probably at least a half truth modeled in there somewhere
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Ugly is 80s and sweltering humidity on Christmas, I don’t see that.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Post these maps with caution. Some people will say you are heat mongering and are being annoying ??‍♂️

Low over Alaska. Low near Greenland. Trough out west. Ridge in the east. Ugly. Just plain ugly. But probably at least a half truth modeled in there somewhere
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Is it odd that I get some enjoyment that people lose there minds over maps like that :p

In all seriousness, it’s a really bad modeled pattern and if it’s correct will take some time to get out of. The good news is that it can’t any worse than what the EPS/GEFS are showing, only up from here.

So I don’t get eggs thrown at me and run off this site, one winter that had a similar look last half of Dec was 87/88. We know what happened first week of January. So it can change fast.

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RollTide18 said:
Ugly is 80s and sweltering humidity on Christmas, I don’t see that.
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I agree, although If we lock a pattern like that in, it’s only a matter of time before we have to break the shorts back out. I don’t see that happening though. I think it will be a very transient “warm up” if ANYTHING, before we go back to our regular scheduled programming of a backloaded blocky winter
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I agree, although If we lock a pattern like that in, it’s only a matter of time before we have to break the shorts back out. I don’t see that happening though. I think it will be a very transient “warm up” if ANYTHING, before we go back to our regular scheduled programming of a backloaded blocky winter
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True, I just think that we’ve gotten used to one extreme or another, there’s either a very cold blocky period or a very warm SER dominated period but not much in the way of a normal winter in the south, which is what we’re going to experience for the next few weeks.
 
MRStorm said:
Go to our WIKI link and "Search MJO". This will answer your questions. The WIKI link is a great tool and source of info.
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Thanks!
Um, so yeah, the WIKI is great! I will now spend my entire holiday season reading that! I can’t believe I’ve lurked for years without diving into that! Y’all, if you haven’t been there, get you some of that WIKI ed, thanks so much for all who’ve contributed!
 
ontherocks said:
Thanks!
Um, so yeah, the WIKI is great! I will now spend my entire holiday season reading that! I can’t believe I’ve lurked for years without diving into that! Y’all, if you haven’t been there, get you some of that WIKI ed, thanks so much for all who’ve contributed!
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:):):):p:p:p:cool::cool::cool:;);););););););)

This is about one of the most gratifying posts an old Curmudgeon can read.
Lot's of kudos to FS (@ForsythSnow), by the way!
 
Here’s something that’ll change but still, something good for the discouraged

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I keep seeing posts about how there isn’t a good cold source and that the cold is on the other side of the world . The op runs have Canada cold as Sh** , the gefs has Canada cold as s$$$ in the medium to long range as well


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Yeah, even tho it's 384 hours out on the gfs, that's some hella cold air in canada, just need a system to bring it down
 
Storm5 said:
I keep seeing posts about how there isn’t a good cold source and that the cold is on the other side of the world . The op runs have Canada cold as Sh** , the gefs has Canada cold as s$$$ in the medium to long range as well


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Haven't you heard...shorts weather on the way....SMDH
 
On a more positive note, the Canadian Rockies get smoked over the next 2 weeks. They will be digging out for a while
 
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