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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

whatalife said:
The weeklies are trash that far out.


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Sometimes that is true but it did predict this warm up we have coming. If we aren't going to talk about what the models show, good and bad, why do we have these threads? Just reporting what I saw, if you don't like it, then don't read them.
 
MichaelJ said:
RIF, that is why I said IF and that it was long range projection
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Ok. I'm hoping we can at least score with another storm similar to what was just saw but with colder air. Doesn't have to be extreme cold since the snowpack will be there.
 
MichaelJ said:
Sometimes that is true but it did predict this warm up we have coming. If we aren't going to talk about what the models show, good and bad, why do we have these threads? Just reporting what I saw, if you don't like it, then don't read them.
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I’m fine with it. I meant nothing by my comment towards you. I just don’t think the models have a solid handle on what will or won’t happen w/the stratospheric warming event...


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whatalife said:
So I guess we should hug the CFSV2
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Trash model. We toss
 
I think we will probably be on the warmer side of things next 2-3 weeks, we are in MJO hell right now. Though, with how active we seem to be the warmth may be muted for the SE and centered in the plains. Models agree on a slow crawl through the warm phases, just glad we aren't doing this end of January.

Though on a positive note, traveling through ph3-6 should be a necessary evil for the strat help we hope to get.


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Kylo said:
I think we will probably be on the warmer side of things next 2-3 weeks, we are in MJO hell right now. Though, with how active we seem to be the warmth may be muted for the SE and centered in the plains. Models agree on a slow crawl through the warm phases, just glad we aren't doing this end of January.

Though on a positive note, traveling through ph3-6 should be a necessary evil for the strat help we hope to get.


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?- to get our cold we have to go through warm phases, happens every year everywhere. Everything is still on track for a cold January- March. The lag time is always off 1-2 weeks. The models will catch up so I don’t ever worry what they are saying at the moment.
 
NoSnowATL said:
?- to get our cold we have to go through warm phases, happens every year everywhere. Everything is still on track for a cold January- March. The lag time is always off 1-2 weeks. The models will catch up so I don’t ever worry what they are saying at the moment.
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Agreed...it's going to painful the next 2-3 weeks but back half should be great. Atleast that's what I am telling myself.
 
Kylo said:
I think we will probably be on the warmer side of things next 2-3 weeks, we are in MJO hell right now. Though, with how active we seem to be the warmth may be muted for the SE and centered in the plains. Models agree on a slow crawl through the warm phases, just glad we aren't doing this end of January.

Though on a positive note, traveling through ph3-6 should be a necessary evil for the strat help we hope to get.


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Yeah, winter is on break for a while. I wouldn't expect things to pick back up until the second week of January when we get back into phase 8 mjo. That corresponds to the weeklies as well. The good news, the -AO is getting going and it's getting blocky up north as expected. We've just got the ridges and troughs in all the wrong places. After New Years I bet we're rollin again.
 
I certainly didn't mean to imply that the EURO weeklies are always right or set in stone. I consider it more of a warning shot that we might not get the cold as early as we thought or want. However as GaStorm mentioned, you can get snow if the placement of a strong high to our north and a southerly storm track without a lot of cold air (ergo last weekend for the western and some central parts of NC.) To get the vast majority of the board involved however, we will need stable fresh cold to have a shot for our friends in Ala Miss., Ga, SC, Tn, and the eastern part of NC
 
I remember all of this pattern relaxation complacent torch talk about the same time last year. The bottom fell out around New Years
 
Well, we’re punting until mid January now!? Nice!
Glad we got that roof crushing , tree killing, historic snowstorm out of the way! I’ve already got 25% of normal snowfall! Gonna be a 09/10 redux! Backloaded backpedaling
 
MichaelJ said:
I certainly didn't mean to imply that the EURO weeklies are always right or set in stone. I consider it more of a warning shot that we might not get the cold as early as we thought or want. However as GaStorm mentioned, you can get snow if the placement of a strong high to our north and a southerly storm track without a lot of cold air (ergo last weekend for the western and some central parts of NC.) To get the vast majority of the board involved however, we will need stable fresh cold to have a shot for our friends in Ala Miss., Ga, SC, Tn, and the eastern part of NC
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Another repeat with more snowpack would allow a better setup in the CAD areas for sure.
 
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