Forevertothee
Member
GSP
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 435 AM Sunday: The latter part of the week looks quiet
and seasonally cool with temps remaining below normal as high
pressure moves across the region on Thursday and weakens offshore
Friday. From that point onward, the situation gets much more
interesting and complicated because of a split flow pattern
that supports a cold continental high over the nrn Plains and a
developing srn stream system on Friday into Saturday. Have been
looking at this one for the last few days with some interest and it
still looks like a race between the arrival of the cold air spilling
over the mtns and the precip developing along a warm front caught
up in the fast-moving confluent flow aloft. The model trends are
looking more compelling early this morning, as for the last few
runs the models show decent consistency with the sfc high moving
over the Midwest and bridging over the mtns by Friday evening in
time to bring the low level dry air into the nrn tier just ahead
of the precip, which arrives from the WSW after midnight. In other
words, the cold air wins the race, at least for the area along/N
of I-40. In this scenario, the precip development would quickly
lock in a cold air damming wedge that would bring even more cold
air down from the north. The result would be a wintry mess across
at least the nrn parts of the fcst area starting by sunrise and
continuing thru Saturday and into Saturday night as the primary
sfc low moves past to the south and then off the mid-Atlantic
coast Sunday morning. The GEFS plume diagrams bear out this trend
across the NW Piedmont and mtns as well, with the p-type looking
like an equal chance of all four types on Saturday/Saturday
night. As for the forecast, some tweaks have been made to delay
the onset into Saturday morning, but eventually a likely prob
will be featured. Have followed the temp trend downward, which
improves the chances of wintry precip across the NC part of the
fcst area. For this issuance, the consensus among neighboring
offices was to limit the precip to rain v. snow, but the reality
would be something quite a bit more messy if the model guidance
was to verify. There is plenty of time to fine tune this. For
the time being, suffice to say that readers should start paying
attention to the winter storm potential next weekend.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 435 AM Sunday: The latter part of the week looks quiet
and seasonally cool with temps remaining below normal as high
pressure moves across the region on Thursday and weakens offshore
Friday. From that point onward, the situation gets much more
interesting and complicated because of a split flow pattern
that supports a cold continental high over the nrn Plains and a
developing srn stream system on Friday into Saturday. Have been
looking at this one for the last few days with some interest and it
still looks like a race between the arrival of the cold air spilling
over the mtns and the precip developing along a warm front caught
up in the fast-moving confluent flow aloft. The model trends are
looking more compelling early this morning, as for the last few
runs the models show decent consistency with the sfc high moving
over the Midwest and bridging over the mtns by Friday evening in
time to bring the low level dry air into the nrn tier just ahead
of the precip, which arrives from the WSW after midnight. In other
words, the cold air wins the race, at least for the area along/N
of I-40. In this scenario, the precip development would quickly
lock in a cold air damming wedge that would bring even more cold
air down from the north. The result would be a wintry mess across
at least the nrn parts of the fcst area starting by sunrise and
continuing thru Saturday and into Saturday night as the primary
sfc low moves past to the south and then off the mid-Atlantic
coast Sunday morning. The GEFS plume diagrams bear out this trend
across the NW Piedmont and mtns as well, with the p-type looking
like an equal chance of all four types on Saturday/Saturday
night. As for the forecast, some tweaks have been made to delay
the onset into Saturday morning, but eventually a likely prob
will be featured. Have followed the temp trend downward, which
improves the chances of wintry precip across the NC part of the
fcst area. For this issuance, the consensus among neighboring
offices was to limit the precip to rain v. snow, but the reality
would be something quite a bit more messy if the model guidance
was to verify. There is plenty of time to fine tune this. For
the time being, suffice to say that readers should start paying
attention to the winter storm potential next weekend.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
