• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

GSP

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 435 AM Sunday: The latter part of the week looks quiet
and seasonally cool with temps remaining below normal as high
pressure moves across the region on Thursday and weakens offshore
Friday. From that point onward, the situation gets much more
interesting and complicated because of a split flow pattern
that supports a cold continental high over the nrn Plains and a
developing srn stream system on Friday into Saturday. Have been
looking at this one for the last few days with some interest and it
still looks like a race between the arrival of the cold air spilling
over the mtns and the precip developing along a warm front caught
up in the fast-moving confluent flow aloft. The model trends are
looking more compelling early this morning, as for the last few
runs the models show decent consistency with the sfc high moving
over the Midwest and bridging over the mtns by Friday evening in
time to bring the low level dry air into the nrn tier just ahead
of the precip, which arrives from the WSW after midnight. In other
words, the cold air wins the race, at least for the area along/N
of I-40. In this scenario, the precip development would quickly
lock in a cold air damming wedge that would bring even more cold
air down from the north. The result would be a wintry mess across
at least the nrn parts of the fcst area starting by sunrise and
continuing thru Saturday and into Saturday night as the primary
sfc low moves past to the south and then off the mid-Atlantic
coast Sunday morning. The GEFS plume diagrams bear out this trend
across the NW Piedmont and mtns as well, with the p-type looking
like an equal chance of all four types on Saturday/Saturday
night. As for the forecast, some tweaks have been made to delay
the onset into Saturday morning, but eventually a likely prob
will be featured. Have followed the temp trend downward, which
improves the chances of wintry precip across the NC part of the
fcst area. For this issuance, the consensus among neighboring
offices was to limit the precip to rain v. snow, but the reality
would be something quite a bit more messy if the model guidance
was to verify. There is plenty of time to fine tune this. For
the time being, suffice to say that readers should start paying
attention to the winter storm potential next weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
fv3p_asnow_eus_37.png
Someone beat me to it, but oh well, here is the replacement. South trend continues
 
Euro and new GFS model runs are interesting. Also find it encouraging the Euro still interacts the low with the northern stream towards the end, which floods more WAA into areas outside of the main CAD areas. If no interaction occurs, which is possible, RDU folks and SC. Midlands will see an even more wintry scenario. Something to watch and that is hinted on a lot of the ensemble runs.
 
Another scenario here most of us would feel impossible to believe would be an extremely suppressed, weak system. Not likely, but all options still on the table this far out. As usual we are always riding a razors edge.
 
Alright I'm drilling down with some soundings and stuff. Turns out that the GFS and the FV3 aren't too far apart when it comes to the ptype.. the ridiculous amounts this far South are not correct, as it's a mixed bag on either modeling.

The GFS is actually more robust in Wintry ptype very far South while the FV3 is trying it's hardest to contain it to the Upstate/Northern Midlands and into SC but the wedge does win out briefly.. with a sleet/mix scenario into the ATL region.. and a nasty ice mess for CLT/GSP.

The FV3 map from tidbits is seeing "sleet" mixed in with the rain through a large chunk of SC and registering it as all snow since it's frozen I'm thinking.

Here is an example frame for the CAE area:
cae.PNG


And here is the same time/example for CLT:
clt.PNG
 
I'd also like to note that the 06z GEFS is backing way off versus it's 00z run... and the ptype maps for most the members look nothing as ridiculous as the FV3/GFS 06z OP runs.

View attachment 7923
So otherwise, GEFS is backing off for the Midlands of South Carolina, Look Im in southern SC but I want Columbia to see something because its long overdue there.
 
So otherwise, GEFS is backing off for the Midlands of South Carolina, Look Im in southern SC but I want Columbia to see something because its long overdue there.
The 00z GEFS mean had a wide swath of much higher accumulations into Western NC/Upstate also that it backed away from this time around. Here is the image from 00z:

fdsfd.png
 
Trends look to be favoring some kind of winter storm from overnight. I see distinctly most that favor are of a CAD type, but from what the Euro showed, snow is still possible at the end of beginning in N GA though upstate SC. Still a week or so to go but at least there's going to be something to watch. Just beware of the day 5 or 4 disappearance. Happens a lot and everyone melts down only to climb the cliff the next day. I do see some overrunning scenarios such as this beauty from the EPS. Sorry Birminghamnand south folks.
us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120200_186_508_215_m18.png
 
Back
Top