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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Looked outside and just drizzle, need rates, and the Convective stuff isn’t looking as promising no more on the hrrr
 
Dark here in GBoro. See if we can get thisbinstability shower to punch through the melting layer.
My guess is its between 1500 to 2000 feet shallowbright above our heads.
 
metwannabe said:
Moderate white drizzle lol
Click to expand...

Upon closer inspection, and comparing KRAX w/ KAKQ radar reflectivities, looks like even the lowest radar beam is overshooting much the precip in Halifax, Warren, & Vance counties. This means it is likely being generated below 5,000-6,000 feet (850mb ish to sfc). It's gonna be tough, although far from impossinle, to get the Bergeron process going if the 850mb temps where this precip is being generated (apparently) are way above -10C (forecast soundings showed between 0C and -5C). I guess a few isolated spots could be mixing w/ snow perhaps, but this kind of environment actually favors freezing drizzle over snow if sfc temps were below 32F.
 
Someone said NC was suppose to look like this today
giphy.gif
 
Models haven’t really been picking out the precip we’re seeing to our north east and to our west.. seems maybe there’s another solution we haven’t seen Thats about to take place
 
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