• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s easily a heavy wet snow sounding as the important 925/850/700mb layers are below freezing, that’s straight up wet snow soundings there tho, and some lift There in the DGZ
Click to expand...
Yeah, looks like a sounding that would result in 32-33F realistically at the surface, assuming decent rates. Not ideal for accumulation, but workable.
 
Here’s the sounding for KECG at hour 78.

db9d9f9e0fb4dd11a28ddebb0c769de4.jpg
 
Enjoy the event. More to come when I’m not banned. A lot will reference the bad storms tonight to winter weather within 7 days. Watch out more to come too.
 
This is impressive -- a little more negative tilt and the NE would have been in business, right?

1607129482476.png
 
This is a little better. Not sure how this will work out though.

a353e079c3922f7a7297ded782d3190b.jpg


Wet bulb at 33°, dew point at 30°, and temp at 36°.
 
iGRXY said:
Even in the upstate the boundary layer is about as thin as you can get. Spartanburg is below freezing at the 850’s and 33 degrees at the 925. You get any form of slightly moderate rates and you will have snowfall. Also remember that temperatures will be crashing quickly as the day goes on and it’s just a matter of making sure the moisture is going to be around.
Click to expand...
What about Pickens county sc
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, looks like a sounding that would result in 32-33F realistically at the surface, assuming decent rates. Not ideal for accumulation, but workable.
Click to expand...
In all honesty I don’t get too concerned with surface temperatures 32-33 degrees for a daytime snowfall in December and early January. The sun angle is at its lowest of the year now. Just today I was outside in the middle of the afternoon and with full overcast and little drizzle falling, it almost had an evening twilight look.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yo @Ollie Williams i know the EPS will still probably suck but did it improve at H5 with less interaction with that first N/S piece
Click to expand...
Yup! I did trend in the right direction, but not enough to really get my attention.
output_NkiWJP.gif
Slightly better run on the mean though, albeit barely
18z
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-7493600.png
12z
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-7493600.png
Members: Several more over central NC
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-7623200.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-7623200.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top