• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Stepped away from computer for a few hours, glad to come back to this! It amazes (and frustrates) me sometimes how nonlinear the sensible weather response can be to some of the underlying mechanisms in the atmosphere. I mean, this run was really just a steady continuation of the slow trend we've seen on the GFS, and yet...
gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh54_trend.gif
 
RVD said:
Stepped away from computer for a few hours, glad to come back to this! It amazes (and frustrates) me sometimes how nonlinear the sensible weather response can be to some of the underlying mechanisms in the atmosphere. I mean, this run was really just a steady continuation of the slow trend we've seen on the GFS, and yet...
View attachment 55709
Click to expand...
Would be very nice if we could see this on other models as well

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
 
Man those models are looking good. I see as usual that rain snow line isn’t breaking into SC. Bummer.
 
ajr said:
We've seen much worse than this temperature profile -- it's really just the surface layer we need to worry about. Wouldn't be surprised if this system overperformed under the ULL.

View attachment 55719

View attachment 55718
View attachment 55720
Click to expand...
That’s easily a heavy wet snow sounding as the important 925/850/700mb layers are below freezing, that’s straight up wet snow soundings there tho, and some lift There in the DGZ
 
Last edited:
Ollie Williams said:
Notice the 18z Euro continues the trend with pieces 1 and two of our storm, getting more separated. While not as separated as the GFS, definitely heading in the right direction.
View attachment 55721
Click to expand...
Very good to see, does make sense the euro probably would slowly trend to it rather than it doing so fast
 
Even in the upstate the boundary layer is about as thin as you can get. Spartanburg is below freezing at the 850’s and 33 degrees at the 925. You get any form of slightly moderate rates and you will have snowfall. Also remember that temperatures will be crashing quickly as the day goes on and it’s just a matter of making sure the moisture is going to be around.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The two waves didn't phase this run, but too much interaction, and wastes some of the moisture.
View attachment 55722
Click to expand...

Yeah even if they don't phase, it's clear even on the GFS/NAM that the northern stream piece is still tugging on that southern stream piece. The more separation the better, otherwise the southern stream begins to accelerate.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top