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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

While CMC appeared lackluster, I like what it did by trending to gfs/nam with a slow N/S piece, next up is slowing it down more than allowing it to tilt better
 
If I was a betting guy I wouldn’t bet on any snow outside the mountains mon/Tuesday. But that comes with a disclaimer if there was a type of system that could surprise someone outside the mountains it’s this one. You got a low pressure to far off the coast to do much. You also have some northern energy trying to swoop down. You don’t need many adjustments to at least see flakes outside the mountains. It’s close


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I think a lot of the drier runs on the 12z suite is because the southern energy is now almost "between" phasing with the first N/S piece and phasing with the second N/S piece. Thus less amplification. Hopefully we can continue trending it slower/more separated from the first piece to get more interaction with the second.
 
RVD said:
I think a lot of the drier runs on the 12z suite is because the southern energy is now almost "between" phasing with the first N/S piece and phasing with the second N/S piece. Thus less amplification. Hopefully we can continue trending it slower/more separated from the first piece to get more interaction with the second.
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Exactly, clear trend on CMC to do that
 
Here's the 12z Ukie energy and precip. It's being stubborn with the first two pieces of energy and really wants to phase them. When the third catches up it does try to change over NE NC (sorry about the resolution on the energy one, not sure what happened):



 
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