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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Not too far off for here in GA per the NAM. Haven't seen much talk for GA but I think we might be in for at least a flizzard if it gets slightly more moist.
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Ollie Williams said:
As @Webberweather53 was saying, Miller A’s really don’t favor CLT. I can see a NW trend, but with the low over SE New England, I doubt we see a big one. I think that the best case scenario would be February 2020, which I know you guys didn’t bode well. But hey, I really hope I’m wrong. This is really an eastern Piedmont NW NC storm at best.
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I think it depends on the track and strength of the Miller A. Central and eastern NC do best when it is a cyclone that rapidly intensifies over the Atlantic, usually with a deformation band with the low 100 m or so off the coast, such as Jan 2000. Western Piedmont does best with weak tracking gulf lows that pull up more gulf moisture without bringing up too much WAA.
 
Stormdoc said:
I think it depends on the track and strength of the Miller A. Central and eastern NC do best when it is a cyclone that rapidly intensifies over the Atlantic, usually with a deformation band with the low 100 m or so off the coast, such as Jan 2000. Western Piedmont does best with weak tracking gulf lows that pull up more gulf moisture without bringing up too much WAA.
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Another thing with Miller A storms for the southern NC Piedmont is that the cut off can on the west edge can be very tight. I was living in in the southern tip of Cabarrus County near the Rocky River when the Crusher hit and my neighborhood got 10-12 inches while 10 miles to the southeast had 16-18” and 10 miles to the northwest had only 2-4”
 
Ollie Williams said:
As @Webberweather53 was saying, Miller A’s really don’t favor CLT. I can see a NW trend, but with the low over SE New England, I doubt we see a big one. I think that the best case scenario would be February 2020, which I know you guys didn’t bode well. But hey, I really hope I’m wrong. This is really an eastern Piedmont NW NC storm at best.
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Here's a table I made last year in one of my grad classes, using the data I linked in the spreadsheet available here: http://www.webberweather.com/upload...ndjfma_noaa_esrl_nao_pna_wpo_epo_indices.xlsx), where I broke down 3 types of winter storm that often impact NC in winter (Miller A, Hybrid (elements of both Miller A & B, often anafrontal type systems, & Miller B/CAD). I chose 5 long-term reliable stations across NC & far SE VA, went back to 1948, and looked only at storms where at least a majority (3 of 5) of these stations recorded at least 1" of snow, found 111 storms in total, and the results are pretty interesting:

Raleigh's bread & butter is obviously Miller A events as is Greensboro's & Charlotte usually gets shafted more relatively speaking. Interestingly, though neither Greensboro, Raleigh, or Charlotte received more snow overall for the 37 hyrbid/anafrontal/overrunning type winter storm cases I looked at (storms like Jan 1988 would be a good example) & Charlotte received as much snow as Raleigh for Miller B & hybrid type winter storms. Thus, an interesting thought emerges in that, if you were to somehow remove Miller A type winter storms from our winter storm climatology & be left only w/ hybrid/anafrontal & Miller B winter storms, Charlotte would have the same snow/ice climo as Raleigh, even though CLT sees ~50% (ish) less snow on average than RDU.

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Chazwin said:
Another thing with Miller A storms for the southern NC Piedmont is that the cut off can on the west edge can be very tight. I was living in in the southern tip of Cabarrus County near the Rocky River when the Crusher hit and my neighborhood got 10-12 inches while 10 miles to the southeast had 16-18” and 10 miles to the northwest had only 2-4”
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Best storm of my life not just because of the insane amount of snow but because it was a complete surprise. Fischel wouldn't cave until there was a foot on the ground and it was just getting started.
 
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