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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

Complicated setup for models to handle. The main longwave's exit, the associated cold front, the two (or three) waves that come in the wake of the longwave trough.. It'll be tough to get much of this inland without some warm air advection occurring east of the waves (off the coast in the Atlantic)// otherwise you're just asking a low pressure system to form in the middle of a cold airmass, which won't happen.

I could see this surprising some folks in eastern NC and SC, but I'm not sure we see much of a massive NW trend with this thing. Hope I'm wrong though.

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Snowlover87 said:
They won't get above 0 tomorrow then they'll be 60 by Tuesday.
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If you can ever look at Denver’s average highs, they never get lower than about 40, but it’s because their weather is so freakin bi-polar… it’s common for them to be 65 one day and then 15 with snow the next
 
NWS just updated like I have no words for this. Even February 2021 wasn't this cold in the middle of the day

Thursday
A chance of snow and freezing rain before 7am, then snow likely between 7am and 3pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing and cold, with a temperature falling to around 1 by 11am.
 
Chazwin said:
If you can ever look at Denver’s average highs, they never get lower than about 40, but it’s because their weather is so freakin bi-polar… it’s common for them to be 65 one day and then 15 with snow the next
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I just couldnt deal with that. I like for temps to be fairly uniform without such big day to day changes.
 
bouncycorn said:
Complicated setup for models to handle. The main longwave's exit, the associated cold front, the two (or three) waves that come in the wake of the longwave trough.. It'll be tough to get much of this inland without some warm air advection occurring east of the waves (off the coast in the Atlantic)// otherwise you're just asking a low pressure system to form in the middle of a cold airmass, which won't happen.

I could see this surprising some folks in eastern NC and SC, but I'm not sure we see much of a massive NW trend with this thing. Hope I'm wrong though.

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With that being said, though, I think the best scenario for those inland would be the first wave going a bit more negative and bringing the frontogenesis axis north, then the second wave can really mature the low pressure system and sling moisture west over the Carolinas.
 
Personally I think we see more digging of any waves coming down the trough. We have shown the last few years of sharpening troughs and digging waves further to the southwest as we get into the 3-5 day range. Maybe it doesn't happen here, but I am in a I think it will until it shows me it's not scenario. Looking how much better this has trended in about a 36 hour timespan.
 
Snowlover87 said:
I just couldnt deal with that. I like for temps to be fairly uniform without such big day to day changes.
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Oh I enjoy wild temperature swings like that around here, but it’s because they are so rare to see here. My favorite one was the 24 hour swing CLT had with the February 1994 Ice Storm… on Wednesday of that week the 5pm temperature was 76 degrees, and 24 hours later it was 26 with heavy sleet. All that said, if I lived in Denver, wild swings like that would probably get old
 
Chazwin said:
Oh I enjoy wild temperature swings like that around here, but it’s because they are so rare to see here. My favorite one was the 24 hour swing CLT had with the February 1994 Ice Storm… on Wednesday of that week the 5pm temperature was 76 degrees, and 24 hours later it was 26 with heavy sleet. All that said, if I lived in Denver, wild swings like that would probably get old
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I wouldn't like the wild temperature swings all the time. I like it occasionally like this week when temps will plummet. It will be fun to watch.
 
With the stationary front that far south/east, you'll have a hard time generating much of a cyclone in a prime position. This could obviously change but ideally you want sufficient frontogenesis at least around 28.0 lat / 30-31 long..

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Look how much better this trended in the 50/50 region and with the trough in general. Now we just need this to shift west around Louisiana which is not a tall ask at this range at all. We are asking for about 100-150 west shifts with plenty of time left. This isn't one of those needing changes with 24 hours left type of deal.
 
One aspect I haven't really heard much about is the affects this might have on Florida, especially the crops. I noticed the areas around Ocala are forecast to have 2 nights in the low 20s and a third in the upper 20s, even Orlando getting to freezing for two nights with a high of 47 in between. Okeechobee probably getting some frost with 2 nights at 35. Phil gonna have to bundle up!
 
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