I know NWS had in their AFD the other day that cold chasing moisture rarely works but this was such an anomalous event could see something anomalous, like backside snow showers, happen.
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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Meh, GFS being the GFS hopefully but by the time our system develops we've lost our pac ridge and the country is flooded with pacific maritime air. I'm no jet extension expert but I'd blame it on an over extension here but I'm just a meany greeny meanager wannabe so what do I know. Lol
And the GEFs offered no hope either so on to the 12z to see if anything remotely favorable starts todayMeh, GFS being the GFS hopefully but by the time our system develops we've lost our pac ridge and the country is flooded with pacific maritime air. I'm no jet extension expert but I'd blame it on an over extension here but I'm just a meany greeny meanager wannabe so what do I know. Lol
Edit: EPS either..... yuck
I'm starting to think our best chance in this first winter window of opportunity is backside flurries and snow showers after the arctic front. Thankfully a lot of winter left yet
If it's any consolation for everyone not named Brent or Tarheel1, the wheels seems to be quickly falling off for the hyped up Midwest blizzard.
So everyone might get to be miserable, lol...
So everyone might get to be miserable, lol...
saw the models looked like Garbo last night, then was like yeah this one is dying, then saw the 06z eps look much improved lol
I'm actually a little intrigued by the post arctic front possibilities
Shaggy
Member
This hobby is so frustrating nowadays. It was so much easier and fun when all I needed was the 5 day planner on TWC showing rain in south Texas a mix over north central Texas and snow north of there. Then I'd know we had a shot at snow
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but...
alfoman
Member
Looks like the TPV gets pushed up in bewteen the NAO and western ridge on the 6Z rather than it getting trapped underneath the connecting block between the two. We need that established connection to occur to prevent the NW Pacific energy train from trugging along as well.
I just think the CAA/dry air infiltration is gonna be to strong for backside flurries tbh, we have no favorable vort max orientation swinging through to help us out, it would help a lot of it closed off closer or the trailing “tail” digs more to our south
TDF had -TSSN in it's extracted data on the 6z NAM so that definitely means the energy is there. It's just timing and lining up with available moisture.
Like I said last night, if the ICON is correct in it’s trajectory of how the cold air pushes in, we absolutely could see a burst of snow come through.
Also, harkening back to last year, the 3K NAM and HRRR had a good winter in these scattered snow shower situations.
*IF* the canadian is right, it's 15F in my backyard at 4PM on Friday
rburrel2
Member
GFS and CMC look really similar for the 27th storm. This threat is another thread the needle situation, but has better odds than the Friday arctic plunge ever had, imo. At least with this system it looks like we may need it to trend towards less digging. I'd much rather need that adjustment than needing a clipper to dig more than shown.
Stormlover
Member
NBM at only 10:1, so these may be low
Brent
Member
Even here I'm like meh. I mean yeah it may snow an inch or two but this is Tulsa not Dallas or Alabama and that is not a winter storm. The wind and cold is gonna be by far the bigger story
12z NAM is a total and complete disaster. The so-called blizzard is basically just a glorified arctic front now. ?
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Tulsa averages less than 10" of snow per year so an inch or two would still be pretty significant I would think.