Pattern December 2023

[Myfrotho704_]

step 1, clog the Atlantic up. Step 2 now is retrograding those lower heights in the pacific to introduce colder air back in the pattern

 

[packfan98]

Looks like the target date for below average temperatures and a more favorable pattern for winter weather chances in the SE starts 12/28 on recent model runs. Let’s see if we can get that to hold. That’s getting into prime climo for early January. fingers crossed!

 

[NCSNOW]

Looks like the target date for below average temperatures and a more favorable pattern for winter weather chances in the SE starts 12/28 on recent model runs. Let’s see if we can get that to hold. That’s getting into prime climo for early January. fingers crossed!

Or maybe start it a few days earlier, Not so much to get snow, but we don't torch Christmas Day like it was looking a couple days ago.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Ran into a graupel shower heading into the office this morning.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[weatherfide]

I raise you a GEM, UK and Euro. My three beat your one, crappy American model.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

All I see is improvement Christmas and beyond on the ENS. It’s not the final product we want, and not close, but the right direction. Clogging up the Atlantic and undercutting first is key

 

[Itryatgolf]

All I see is improvement Christmas and beyond on the ENS. It’s not the final product we want, and not close, but the right direction. Clogging up the Atlantic and undercutting first is key View attachment 138582View attachment 138583View attachment 138584

I'm hoping for more improvement moving forward as well

 

[Chazwin]

All I see is improvement Christmas and beyond on the ENS. It’s not the final product we want, and not close, but the right direction. Clogging up the Atlantic and undercutting first is key View attachment 138582View attachment 138583View attachment 138584

Yeah definitely looking a lot better than a few days ago. I still think that it will take a couple weeks once the pattern change starts to get things right for a winter storm in the south, but if things start just after Christmas we could have things primed and ready for peak climo.

 

[tennessee storm]

Yeah definitely looking a lot better than a few days ago. I still think that it will take a couple weeks once the pattern change starts to get things right for a winter storm in the south, but if things start just after Christmas we could have things primed and ready for peak climo.

Not trying be Debbie downer any means. Even that look looks transient cold to me, better then nothing

 

[Chazwin]

Not trying be Debbie downer any means. Even that look looks transient cold to me, better then nothing

You’re right. Like Fro said, it’s by no means what we want to get to, but it’s a step in the right direction. The biggest thing about that look is that you won’t see our source regions continue to get flooded with Pacific air

 

[NCSNOW]

GFS loves to run lows up to our west constantly. One thing ive noticed when thumbing through 360hr runs 4x a day. Getting a good steady sample diet with the active Southern Stream Jet cranking storms out every 4-5 days.

 

[BullCityWx]

Maybe we eventually warm up but for now ?‍

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[NCSNOW]

Can you imagine the meltdown if this weekends storm would have had enough cold air. We started the coastal storm thread this was a ride the coast. Now its shifted to an Apps Runner. Fear the NW trend when tracking this year

 

[BullCityWx]

?

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[LukeBarrette]

How about Round 2 on the 30th??
We need to build the Ark it seems

 

[JHS]

Can you imagine the meltdown if this weekends storm would have had enough cold air. We started the coastal storm thread this was a ride the coast. Now its shifted to an Apps Runner. Fear the NW trend when tracking this year

It has started to shift back to the east. We still get lots of rain, but I wonder just how far east it will shift. This could still be only a coastal storm with the center out over the gulf stream.