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Pattern December 2023

griteater said:
It's kind of remarkable to me that we're even having the conversation given the big trough off the west coast, but I think the sneaky factor here is the El Nino induced low height pattern from Baja to Florida. Less SE ridge type La Nina influence. So a well-timed cold shot over the Northeast gets us closer
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Yep. Nothing suggesting a SER anytime soon as well. Height anoms look dominant over can, and -SCAND typically correlates with no SER
 
griteater said:
It's kind of remarkable to me that we're even having the conversation given the big trough off the west coast, but I think the sneaky factor here is the El Nino induced low height pattern from Baja to Florida. Less SE ridge type La Nina influence. So a well-timed cold shot over the Northeast gets us closer
Click to expand...
Yeah for sure. And I guess that's kind of what I meant from my earlier GFS post from earlier. I keep seeing the repeating big trough just off the west coast. Not the very best. But as we get deeper into winter (if that feature remains semi-permanent), we'll have a better shot as average temps continue to gradually decline. It's almost always about timing down here anyway. I just always feel better to see real cold nearby to be tapped.

As an aside, I remember how we used to worry about things like convection interfering with our moisture transport or a dry slot or whatever. Now, it seems hard to even advance to that stage of worry. It's more like, when is there going to be any cold air around? Where are all the systems, etc.?
 
Still don't see much of anything to get enthused about when it comes to snow/ice.

Decently favorable circulation pattern at times, but no real cold air in sight & that'll probably remain the case for the next few-several weeks.

If it were up to me, I'd actually like to see the trough drop into the west-central US for a little while to build up the snow pack to the north & west, then come eastward later in January (this is actually what happened in 2015-16). Not having that snow cover there could come back to bite us later in winter when we want a sustained cold/snowy look that we've tended to get in winters like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Still don't see much of anything to get enthused about when it comes to snow/ice.

Decently favorable circulation pattern at times, but no real cold air in sight & that'll probably remain the case for the next few-several weeks.

If it were up to me, I'd actually like to see the trough drop into the west-central US for a little while to build up the snow pack to the north & west, then come eastward later in January (this is actually what happened in 2015-16). Not having that snow cover there could come back to bite us later in winter when we want a sustained cold/snowy look that we've tended to get in winters like this.
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Snow cover across the northern tier is pitiful right now …. We need that to build soon
 
So bad
gfs_asnow_us_60.png
 
tennessee storm said:
Snow cover across the northern tier is pitiful right now …. We need that to build soon
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Yeah this is truly pitiful for the middle of December.

No real solid source of cold air from what I can see through the end of the month, and even the air mass that's there is modifying very quickly on approach, in large part because there's no real snow cover to our north to keep it refrigerated. Highly doubt we see anything legitimate until this changes in a massive way.

I'd rather see the trough out west for at least a week or two s.t. we can fill in everything over the northern Rockies, Midwest, & Great Lakes first.

Keep in mind, we also haven't even seen the truly mild period over N America set in yet, which is going to zap even more of this snow over the northern tier & Canada.

Imho, we're a really long ways off from a consistently good pattern (for snow) around here. Sure, the circulation pattern is conducive at times, but the air mass that's in place & being fluxed into the CONUS is not.

Screenshot 2023-12-15 at 10.09.11 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this is truly pitiful for the middle of December.

No real solid source of cold air from what I can see through the end of the month, and even the air mass that's there is modifying very quickly on approach, in large part because there's no real snow cover to our north to keep it refrigerated. Highly doubt we see anything legitimate until this changes in a massive way.

I'd rather see the trough out west for at least a week or two s.t. we can fill in everything over the northern Rockies, Midwest, & Great Lakes first.

Keep in mind, we also haven't even seen the truly mild period over N America set in yet, which is going to zap even more of this snow over the northern tier & Canada.

Imho, we're a really long ways off from a consistently good pattern (for snow) around here. Sure, the circulation pattern is conducive at times, but the air mass that's in place & being fluxed into the CONUS is not.

View attachment 138651
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Thankfully not everyone agrees with your consistently negative predictions.
 
MB22 said:
He's a warmanista. Can see right through his shtick.
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He's not a warm monger. Due to the jet extension, it will flood Canada/Northern US with mild Pacific air reducing the snow cover to little or nothing. It's a well known fact that lack of snow cover = cold air shots are more transient and modifying in nature. When the +EPO turns negative, it'll take a week or two for the snow cover in the Plains/Midwest to build back up to a suitable amount, and until we get good enough snow cover up north, the cold air will be transient and modified in nature. It's better for us to wait for the Plains/Midwest to get snow cover so the arctic cold masses gets colder and less modifying.
 
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SD said:
The end of the eps looked manageable. Obviously the devil would be in the details but independent jets with the potential to deliver just cold enough air, phase, or wedge is good enough for at this lead time
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Yea, i think our best hope to get frozen next few weeks is pulling a rabit out of the hat and catching a NY HP to Cad us at just the right time. There will be enough snow on the ground around the lakes and new england. Just need the mechanism to fan it on down.
 
NCSNOW said:
Yea, i think our best hope to get frozen next few weeks is pulling a rabit out of the hat and catching a NY HP to Cad us at just the right time. There will be enough snow on the ground around the lakes and new england. Just need the mechanism to fan it on down.
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Agreed. If you look at that map Webb posted earlier, SE Canada and even interior northern New England appears to be holding on to their snow pack the best. It looks like the Atlantic is going to start getting junked up enough to slow the flow down some so a well placed and timed HP could set something up at least east of the mountains. It’s not certainly not likely, but if I recall, that’s basically what happened with the early January 2002 storm… very little snow cover was in place across the northern Plains and Midwest. In fact I think after the storm was over, ATL, GSP, CLT, and RDU all had as much as twice the amount of snow for that season to date than cities like Chicago and Minneapolis.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this is truly pitiful for the middle of December.

No real solid source of cold air from what I can see through the end of the month, and even the air mass that's there is modifying very quickly on approach, in large part because there's no real snow cover to our north to keep it refrigerated. Highly doubt we see anything legitimate until this changes in a massive way.

I'd rather see the trough out west for at least a week or two s.t. we can fill in everything over the northern Rockies, Midwest, & Great Lakes first.

Keep in mind, we also haven't even seen the truly mild period over N America set in yet, which is going to zap even more of this snow over the northern tier & Canada.

Imho, we're a really long ways off from a consistently good pattern (for snow) around here. Sure, the circulation pattern is conducive at times, but the air mass that's in place & being fluxed into the CONUS is not.

View attachment 138651
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I'm sure I have a bad memory but this seems about as paltry as it gets for mid Dec. NE cities, entire Great Lakes region, almost the entire states of Montana, Minnesota, Nevada, and most of the Northern Plains ALL snowless. That's pretty remarkable to me.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah for sure. And I guess that's kind of what I meant from my earlier GFS post from earlier. I keep seeing the repeating big trough just off the west coast. Not the very best. But as we get deeper into winter (if that feature remains semi-permanent), we'll have a better shot as average temps continue to gradually decline. It's almost always about timing down here anyway. I just always feel better to see real cold nearby to be tapped.

As an aside, I remember how we used to worry about things like convection interfering with our moisture transport or a dry slot or whatever. Now, it seems hard to even advance to that stage of worry. It's more like, when is there going to be any cold air around? Where are all the systems, etc.?
Click to expand...

I agree it's hard to get excited with the vortex off the west coast. We really just need to wait for that thing to retrograde. I want to see Alaska firmly in a ridge and flow coming over the ridge due south. That's when we really end up on the right side of grits gauge. For December though, I'll take seasonal and cool all day. Run to the mountains and it'll snow. No complaints for me on this December so far. Gets me in the mood for January which is usually our best chance each year now.
 
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