Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[TheBatman]

I am sure this could change things either way correct?

Yes. More data the models will start coming together on a closer solution.

 

[stormcentral]

 

[ForsythSnow]

Getting closer in Atlanta

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Well if it's showing that and potentially underestimating the CAD, and since it's trending more towards a colder CAD setup, we should see that line come further south.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Euro is a beaut. Jimmy is back, Jack!

 

[DadOfJax]

Any thoughts on Gatlinburg for those people who understand the geography and its effects in these situations?

 

[Metwannabe]

Low goes more ots and not up the coast this run... thought it would've been a little colder on the north side

 

[scroback]

Thanks for your explanation. My feeling is that you base everything on the GFS and I don't trust ANY global model to make a flat statement like you made even though it is possible based of your reasoning. However, until the NAM and RGEM get into range I won't agree that it will go farther west than the Triad area. That is fine though, everyone including me make some flat statements that end up proven wrong.

It's possible lol. I'm most familiar with the caviots of the GFS, but I do know CAD, nwp and "well forecast" can never be used in the same sentence. I'll probably look at some peer reviewed articles about nwp and CAD tonight. While it sounds like I'm cherry picking, I do recall Jan 2017 being in >95% probs of 6" of snow on the EPS in Raleigh, but it RAINED the whole night, with a dusting at the end of the precip

 

[Kylo]

For Raleigh, it's about 0.5" QPF of front end sleet/snow then 1.5" of very cold rain. But triad and mountains get crushed with backside too.

 

[Rain Cold]

Does the backside make it in here, Kylo?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Valid point from Burger over on the other board

“This run is also colder for most of NC on this run at the 925 level. As it sniffs out that CAD it should start reflecting that more and more“

 

[Metwannabe]

Does the backside make it in here, Kylo?

I'm glad I'm reading a weather forum and know what you are talking about....

 

[Kylo]

Does the backside make it in here, Kylo?

The backside rain gets us heavy. The 850 line just stays in Chatham county the whole time...pain.

Verbatim it's 33F rain You know how we roll in these events.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We hug the Euro and Ukie with all we’ve got

 

[Rain Cold]

The backside rain gets us heavy. The 850 line just stays in Chatham county the whole time...pain.
View attachment 8488
View attachment 8487

Great. Of course.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

For Raleigh, it's about 0.5" QPF of front end sleet/snow then 1.5" of very cold rain. But triad and mountains get crushed with backside too.


View attachment 8486

Wow!! This run put Northern Midlands of SC back in the picture possibly.

 

[Kylo]

Great. Of course.

Verbatim it's 33F rain You know how we roll in these events.

 

[Arcc]

You think you would have a snowier look further south with the low being further south.

It's because y'all are looking for the "L" not the isobars. The system a hybrid miller A/B with the energy transfer. The first low is sitting over AL with the secondary starting to form over FL. However, this only matters for the back end snow possible for the Carolina's.

 

[Rain Cold]

I'm glad I'm reading a weather forum and know what you are talking about....

The backside is always very tricky.

 

[Tarheel1]

All hail the king!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

12z models trended better for 85 west and especially 77 west in nc