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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

I'm guessing this one is going to end up being a weird Apps Runner-Miller B like transfer based on what I'm seeing unless the system outruns the high. If it does then it might just be an Apps Runner.
 
The GFS sending the low into north Texas in this run looks to be related to convective feedback in the model and thus is potentially spurious, the low in following frames slides along the Gulf coast.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png
 
High still looks good, icy precip not responding!
 
Jon said:
wayyyy too warm this run, this run won’t be good


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Confluence in NE looks great! This model is crap!
 
Still a nice snowstorm for the triad of N.C. and apps. Triad with 6-8”+ give or take.


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I’ve heard this thing is 7 days out for the last 4 days. Wouldn’t it be fair to say it’s 5 days out? Because by this time Friday, I am pretty sure everyone will have a idea on what this thing is going to do. Idk, just an opinion.
 
And yeah, I gotta laugh a little bit at the look the surface is producing. The confluence is actually stronger this run in the NE, yet the low is north?
 
Robert West said:
I’ve heard this thing is 7 days out for the last 4 days. Wouldn’t it be fair to say it’s 5 days out? Because by this time Friday, I am pretty sure everyone will have a idea on what this thing is going to do. Idk, just an opinion.
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The snow will begin in western areas in 5 days so yeah its 5 days away for some areas.
 
Jon said:
Still a nice snowstorm for the triad of N.C. and apps. Triad with 6-8”+ give or take.


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Atleast suppression isn’t showing up on GFS!
 
A clipper scooting across southern Quebec, Ontario, and New England within the northern branch of the jet by the time our storm encroaches on the Carolinas is certainly worth monitoring in future runs. This s/w sends a reinforcing shot of cold air to the north and significantly amps the surface high in the northeast US and Lakes w/ CAA and confluence leading to substantial surface pressure rises as the storm is ongoing.

gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png
 
I don’t believe the gfs. No way it cuts into central Texas and starts going back SE. Let’s just see how the 0z looks like. No worries :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
A clipper scooting across southern Quebec, Ontario, and New England within the northern branch of the jet by the time our storm encroaches on the Carolinas is certainly worth monitoring in future runs. This s/w sends a reinforcing shot of cold air to the north and significantly amps the surface high in the northeast US and Lakes w/ CAA and confluence leading to substantial surface pressure rises as the storm is ongoing.

View attachment 7987
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Is this good or bad? For snow
 
Webberweather53 said:
A clipper scooting across southern Quebec, Ontario, and New England within the northern branch of the jet by the time our storm encroaches on the Carolinas is certainly worth monitoring in future runs. This s/w sends a reinforcing shot of cold air to the north and significantly amps the surface high in the northeast US and Lakes w/ CAA and confluence leading to substantial surface pressure rises as the storm is ongoing.

View attachment 7987
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Hence, the rain-snow line sinks southward in NC and towards upstate SC later in the run and the surface low is suppressed even further. We'll just have to wait & see how NWP handles this clipper as verification nears, little details like these matter a lot.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29 (1).png
 
The rain it is showing over northern Georgia at 174 would likely be snow as 850s are below freezing with the surface temps in the mid 30s
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hence, the rain-snow line sinks southward in NC and towards upstate SC later in the run and the surface low is suppressed even further. We'll just have to wait & see how NWP handles this clipper as verification nears, little details like these matter a lot.
View attachment 7988
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The clipper showing up a few days ago for Tues/Wed, vanished right?
 
Whoever actually gets hit, this looks to be a long duration storm like Feb 2014. Easily 36 hour event.
 
Congrats N.C. this run. Still gives me 5-6 which is a win for December. Glad I cashed out at 30 inches.
 
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