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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The storm has Ryan Maue's attention...
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I got a question. Where is the cold air coming from? A HP in the NE or a HP in the Plains?

There's a push of colder air in SE Canada that allows the high located in the Northeast to funnel colder than average air (this time of the year) down.

The High in question that sets up, moves in tandem with the low pressure system... timing is key here, of course.
 
Needs to keep coming south I honestly hope this thing doesn’t look good until the day before the event and then rip out my heart by going way north. Already had that with Georgia football
 
I will make a call for upstate, 3-8" sn/ip and up to .25" ice. That's a pretty safe bet.

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Rah NWS has "snow likely" Saturday night, aggressive for them to say the least, especially as far east as mby

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Agree, that is heavily unlike them!! I remember quoting them on multiple occasions when everyone was snow-weenieing and saying well "RAH isn't calling for that", and everyone tried to tell me why (they are conservative).
 
Mets may be willing to take things a big more seriously after what has happened in recent years, particularly in the Atlanta area.
 
I will make a call for upstate, 3-8" sn/ip and up to .25" ice. That's a pretty safe bet.

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I’m gonna make a call/guess too:
TR - 8-10”, 1/4 inch ice
Greenville downtown: 5-7” 1/4 “ ice
South of 85 ( me) : 1-3” , 1/2” ice
 
Given the forecast track of this low, I hope it isn't a case of strong Gulf convection preventing development northward as seen in the past with the northern fringes getting dried up due to low DP's and CAA from the NNE.
Seen it before....
 
Given the forecast track of this low, I hope it isn't a case of strong Gulf convection preventing development northward as seen in the past with the northern fringes getting dried up due to low DP's and CAA from the NNE.
Seen it before....

We don't want to see something super amplified in the Gulf area for parts of SC/NC/NE GA either. It's looking like the idea from the quick EPS maps I looked at is to keep the system weaker until it goes off the coast of FL/SC and starts to amplify it at that point.. which may be the best case scenario for many in NC.
 
We don't want to see something super amplified in the Gulf area for parts of SC/NC/NE GA either. It's looking like the idea from the quick EPS maps I looked at is to keep the system weaker until it goes off the coast of FL/SC and starts to amplify it at that point.. which may be the best case scenario for many in NC.
Yes, when you see that convection just to the SE rotating NW, then I'm a happy camper here in NC.
 
I will see about possibly making it easier to use sometime. Maybe an animation slider or something. ;) Thanks for those links!

The pink "Loop Models by Day" does allow for a look between the xZ major ops, GFS, CMS, NAVGEM (?), FV3 (x2) and Euro.
 
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