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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

From what I could tell, the FV3 did great with track, but was too cold further south into GA and other regions. We can say that it is precise and somewhat accurate. I would give it a B for performance this time around.

The HRRR and WRF models were too cold and blasted the regions in GA too cold too early. However, they were fair for other regions. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll give them both a C.

The CMC was too jumpy and definitely flunked further out but I'll give it credit as I will the GFS for not being so cold, but for NC it was way too warm. Both get a C+.

The Euro was like the WRF and HRRR, too fast on the cold for GA. It otherwise was good with the track except the few wobbles but might have been too generous to some areas. B+ here.

The ICON was way too warm. F.

Lastly, the NAM seemed to perform greatly in the 3 KM runs. The mix never made it out of the mountains in GA and it was close, but maybe a bit colder for other parts further east in NC. A-.

Just my analysis from what I could tell. Feel free to correct anything I said since I might have missed something or may not have enough info.
 
ForsythSnow said:
From what I could tell, the FV3 did great with track, but was too cold further south into GA and other regions. We can say that it is precise and somewhat accurate. I would give it a B for performance this time around.

The HRRR and WRF models were too cold and blasted the regions in GA too cold too early. However, they were fair for other regions. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll give them both a C.

The CMC was too jumpy and definitely flunked further out but I'll give it credit as I will the GFS for not being so cold, but for NC it was way too warm. Both get a C+.

The Euro was like the WRF and HRRR, too fast on the cold for GA. It otherwise was good with the track except the few wobbles but might have been too generous to some areas. B+ here.

The ICON was way too warm. F.

Lastly, the NAM seemed to perform greatly in the 3 KM runs. The mix never made it out of the mountains in GA and it was close, but maybe a bit colder for other parts further east in NC. A-.

Just my analysis from what I could tell. Feel free to correct anything I said since I might have missed something or may not have enough info.
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I agree. Going forward, we will weigh the FV3 more heavily for track and trends. As for the NAM, it has a history of being accurate with the thermals, especially within 12 hours of the event. This combo will be my "go-to" during the next winter event, once we get into the Nam's wheelhouse.
 
I sit pretty with this ULL, somebody could get 3-4 inches if it snows on you for 5+ hours like the hrrr Is showing
 
metwannabe said:
Tomorrow could be as fun as today, unpredictable, more dynamic maybe convective... seriously someone could score tomorrow.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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I looked at the models yesterday about this and they weren't enthused, haven't looked today until the 18z runs. Be nice to see flakes fly two days in a row.
 
Yeah, I think a convective snow burst would be nice, Is thundersnow in the question or will the ull be to weak for that
 
Top report I saw was 24” in south-west Virginia. I think I did really well my forecast minus a few areas in the GSP area did better than I thought and I certainly missed the forecast for Brick in Raleigh.
 
I'm in the same boat as Rain Cold and SD here with my one inch of frozen slop. LOL at some folks saying the FV3 is awesome. Let's see, it forecast a 6-7 inch snowfall for MBY. The HRRR and RAP did just as bad as they forecast 6+ inches as the storm was beginning. The 3K NAM even gave me 4+ inches. The only models that even came close to getting it right were the RGEM and GGEM as they both forecast less than an inch. Those will be the models that I will be watching for MBY from now on.
 
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DarkKnight said:
My Carolina friends on here I have a question for you. How did cad perform on this event?? I know I saw a lot of you guys mention it. Just curious and trying to learn.
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I thought most models did well. A lot showin 32-35 In GSP proper, and a lot of people were saying that was gonna be too warm, but not really, I never got below 33 and had a “ great” accumulation of sleet for those temps and 10 hours of rain before hand!
 
Another nowcasting situation, watch for blossoming precip along the mountains, foothills, eastern tennessee and northern Georgia
 
ForsythSnow said:
From what I could tell, the FV3 did great with track, but was too cold further south into GA and other regions. We can say that it is precise and somewhat accurate. I would give it a B for performance this time around.

The HRRR and WRF models were too cold and blasted the regions in GA too cold too early. However, they were fair for other regions. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll give them both a C.

The CMC was too jumpy and definitely flunked further out but I'll give it credit as I will the GFS for not being so cold, but for NC it was way too warm. Both get a C+.

The Euro was like the WRF and HRRR, too fast on the cold for GA. It otherwise was good with the track except the few wobbles but might have been too generous to some areas. B+ here.

The ICON was way too warm. F.

Lastly, the NAM seemed to perform greatly in the 3 KM runs. The mix never made it out of the mountains in GA and it was close, but maybe a bit colder for other parts further east in NC. A-.

Just my analysis from what I could tell. Feel free to correct anything I said since I might have missed something or may not have enough info.
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I drove back from Asheville this morning and there was snow patches all the way down to mile marker 154 into Georgia on I-85, just a dusting, but still at low elevation. Our local channels refer to that entire region as the "northeast Georgia mountains." Cobb and Forsyth county have more mountains than any county I-85 comes close to. As a matter of fact, you don't even exceed 1500' until you reach Rabun County from that side. This storm was very CAD based, and it was interesting to see how many much higher elevations west of Towns County and the southwestern mountains of North Carolina completely left out.
 
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