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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Kudos to the new gfs. Had qpf and big pplyers pegged from over 7 days out. LR NEW GFSAND EURO did stellar. Nam was to far north with accums and had warm nose to beefed up.

Ended up with 8 and some change before sleet took over. Loved the low visibility wind wept heavy snow this morning. Plenty more of where this came from. But buyer beware. I said in Nov that there would be some biggies and big heart break this year because of thermal and mixing issues. These beefed up waves in the stj are notorious for it , like we just saw. Well be tracking more this year than we did 2009/2010 no doubt in my mind.
 
The main part of the storm may be over, but we're not done with clown maps yet.
namconus_asnow_seus_13.png
 
Umm..I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NAM underdone on amounts when it’s playing catch-up with a system like this. Huge bust potential. I’m actually staying up for the euro...again unfortunately
 
I cannot imagine being someone who lives in North Carolina. Back to back storms with a possible 12+ total in the span of 2-3 days. Wow!! In December to boot!
 
Welp.. even during a ULL, now the hrrr shows this with rain, what could possibly go wrong....
 

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J.C. said:
I drove back from Asheville this morning and there was snow patches all the way down to mile marker 154 into Georgia on I-85, just a dusting, but still at low elevation. Our local channels refer to that entire region as the "northeast Georgia mountains." Cobb and Forsyth county have more mountains than any county I-85 comes close to. As a matter of fact, you don't even exceed 1500' until you reach Rabun County from that side. This storm was very CAD based, and it was interesting to see how many much higher elevations west of Towns County and the southwestern mountains of North Carolina completely left out.
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Yeah it's pretty low out to the east of the mountains. I sit at around 1200' and the local mountain, Sawnee Mountain. peaks at 1970', which according to the radar is showing mix right now.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah it's pretty low out to the east of the mountains. I sit at around 1200' and the local mountain, Sawnee Mountain. peaks at 1970', which according to the radar is showing mix right now.
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I thought for sure you would get in on the action last night. What did your low end up coming to? The station closest to me had 33 for a few hours. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a few flakes tonight.
 
NCSNOW said:
Kudos to the new gfs. Had qpf and big pplyers pegged from over 7 days out. LR NEW GFSAND EURO did stellar. Nam was to far north with accums and had warm nose to beefed up.

Ended up with 8 and some change before sleet took over. Loved the low visibility wind wept heavy snow this morning. Plenty more of where this came from. But buyer beware. I said in Nov that there would be some biggies and big heart break this year because of thermal and mixing issues. These beefed up waves in the stj are notorious for it , like we just saw. Well be tracking more this year than we did 2009/2010 no doubt in my mind.
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I love tracking big cold rains 8-10 days out! That was fun! Looking forward to many more!
 
J.C. said:
I thought for sure you would get in on the action last night. What did your low end up coming to? The station closest to me had 33 for a few hours. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a few flakes tonight.
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32.9 I believe was the low. Literally 1 degree or so off. Saw nothing because the 925 mb layer wasn't cold enough soon enough for sleet even.
 
I say Jim Cantore easily sees 3”...but if NAM keeps playing catch-up I wouldn’t rule out 6-12”..maybe not Boone but some higher peaks of WNC.
 
Btw, RDU only needs another 2.2" tomorrow w/ this ULL to break the single-storm snow/sleet record for a December winter storm that's still held by December 11-12 1958. It's funny how some on this forum talked about this very record several weeks ago & I pointed out how weak the record is for central and northern Wake Co relative to the rest of central NC, lo & behold we're trying to break it (finally). I'd definitely still include tomorrow's snow into the total snow/sleet because it would be virtually impossible to separate the two events using early-mid 20th century data.
December 11-12 1958 NC Snowmap.png
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah... with 0 support of any other model, even its own family, it’s out to lunch.
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ehh I wouldn’t go that far...even the HRRR is playing catch-up. 2-5” totals near Raleigh...and all of the mountains...certainly trending more widespread
 
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