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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

SD said:
I'd guess that's a lot of bright banding but lots of models have .5-1 between onset and changeover so its going to come down

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Surface temps worry me most.
Hopefully we can ring out every drop while thermals offer us this opportunity.
 
If only, like in summer, we could have clear nights with optimal RC, then heavy precip falls. High of 44 with thick cloud cover be darned.
 
Rain Cold said:
It’s been consistently showing a warm nose.
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Exactly. Folks around here have memory loss every winter. It's the same old song and dance with the models. The globals look good and then we get in range of the hi res CAMs, and the warm nose says goodbye to the snow. They don't believe the NAM or RGEM until it's too late. Both of these models are giving me less than .5 inches of snow now. The RAP and the HRRR are giving me 6+ inches of snow. This is going to be an epic battle between these models on the Wake/Johnston line.
 
Avalanche said:
Surface temps worry me most.
Hopefully we can ring out every drop while thermals offer us this opportunity.
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If we can get snow/sleet going we should get down near freezing fairly quickly. Im still fairly not confident in any solution with this event since we could easily pile up 6-8 by morning if things go perfect. Conversely we could wake up to nothing on the ground and a rain sleet mix

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Only been looking at this same radar for 12 hours
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SD said:
If we can get snow/sleet going we should get down near freezing fairly quickly. Im still fairly not confident in any solution with this event since we could easily pile up 6-8 by morning if things go perfect. Conversely we could wake up to nothing on the ground and a rain sleet mix

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Is there any feature that can keep TP's constant long enough to get that 6-8? I haven't looked at a model today so I don't know how HP is influencing this system and its ability to make snow a real threat here.
 
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