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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
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Throws a good amount of sleet down in the central piedmont, and ice near CLT
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Brick Tamland said:
Interesting post by someone at the other board about the FV3.

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania. We had a snowstorm on 11/15. Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area. The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior. The Mets blew them off. The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said. We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office. On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW. By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet. We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”. The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk. The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.
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Man I couldn’t imagine getting snow that early.


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I’m not sure why Jim Cantore is picking Asheville over Blowing Rock. The warm nose is strong for the foothills and mountains around there. Still a big event but temps alone I would go north.
 
Burgertime on the other board shows exactly what I see. 546 thickness suggests the the northern mountains and foothills are the only locations that can take the clown map verbatim. Waves of sleet south of Taylorsville, NC.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I’m not sure why Jim Cantore is picking Asheville over Blowing Rock. The warm nose is strong for the foothills and mountains around there. Still a big event but temps alone I would go north.
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HurricaneTracker actually alluded to the fact that with this setup if it does warm up, higher elevations aren't necessarily better than central mountains. His words:

'Boone will see slightly more sleet because they are actually *too high* in elevation and above the wedge into the warm nose.'
 
Also, I am not seeing anything that central mountains are going to have a warm nose problem. If anything, I expect the wedge to be strong there than in many high elevation areas along the Tennessee border.
 
ontherocks said:
So in my attempt to learn, are the things that make this map inaccurate for snow totals some of the following:
1. It includes anything frozen (sleet, fr)
2. It is a 10:1 ratio and we don’t have that with this storm
3. It’s under estimating the warm nose
?? Is this kinda right? What else am I missing.....
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Yep for all 3. I like this site for snow maps but doesn't have Euro/UK.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
 
Ugh oh. GFS had a round 2 trending winter storm for western nc Thursday night...given snow would already be on the ground. Looks icy.
 
Just catching up on the models for today but geez the NAM looks good. Can we get one more tick south over the next couple of runs.

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Since we are getting in close range I guess we can throw out the Euro and start focusing on the short range models correct ?
 
How did euro look with the upper low. Sorry at work haven't had the chance to look. Freebie site looks better
 
Rain Cold said:
It's really close, if you just look at 850s, which you really can't do.
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I know the other day I said it's fun being on the line in these big events, and it is, makes it fun to track. But as it get's closer you wonder 'what if'. A lot of us will be 20-30 miles from 6" event, unless the furnace really gets going.

 
Kylo said:
I know the other day I said it's fun being on the line in these big events, and it is, makes it fun to track. But as it get's closer you wonder 'what if'. A lot of us will be 20-30 miles from 6" event, unless the furnace really gets going.

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I don't think it's snowed 6" at my house since the Christmas storm of 2010. I honestly feel like we're going to end that streak this year, but I doubt very much it will be with this one.

I did like the NWS briefing that talked about how the precip type would be rate-driven and that they didn't expect a lot of ZR here. I guess if that is the case and the stars aligned just right, we could get some sustained heavy snow, since it looks like the column is pretty close to freezing. But we won't know for sure until it's underway. Such is life in the transition zone.
 
Looking closer at the Euro run in the 1 hour increments, it models snow for Wake through about 17z on Sunday where this much snow has fallen by then. Eyeballing the QPF during this period looks like 0.7-0.8".

9-km ECMWF USA Surface 1-Hourly Southeast US 1-h Precip Type & MSLP 52.png

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