Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Kylo]

Faux snow map

 

[Rain Cold]

Euro. Looks downpourish for Wake.
View attachment 8825
View attachment 8824

It's really close, if you just look at 850s, which you really can't do.

 

[Metwannabe]

Euro. Looks downpourish for Wake.
View attachment 8825
View attachment 8824

Eww

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[BirdManDoomW]

12z Euro looks north with moisture too

 

[Rain Cold]

Main axis still north of the Fake Version 3.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Faux snow map

View attachment 8827

Wow, looks almost exactly like the GFS ensemble mean.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Main axis still north of the Fake Version 3.

I think you meant the Fantastic Version.

 

[Rain Cold]

So the question now is, when does the FV3 finally cave? I'm guessing 0z tonight.

 

[Brick Tamland]

So the question now is, when does the FV3 finally cave? I'm guessing 0z tonight.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Who knows, the FV3 might just be a genius! Although it won't be what it showed at 384, it was showing a storm happening around this period all the way back then!

 

[Storm5]

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[BirdManDoomW]

Warm nose for central NC foothills and half of Yadkin County. Totals appear legit for northern foothills and central/northern mountains tho.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Euro is way off. No way theres rain that far north in the piedmont. Im going with the FV3.

 

[NCSNOW]

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Me and packfan are like maybe 100 yards in the purple snow on that frame. And it will be hammering at that point 40dbz. Saw it on the nam one frame as well

 

[ontherocks]

Faux snow map

View attachment 8827

So in my attempt to learn, are the things that make this map inaccurate for snow totals some of the following:
1. It includes anything frozen (sleet, fr)
2. It is a 10:1 ratio and we don’t have that with this storm
3. It’s under estimating the warm nose
?? Is this kinda right? What else am I missing.....

 

[snowlover91]

The primary difference between the FV3 and Euro is the FV3 has cooler air aloft, the 850 map shows this clearly. Since the FV3 isn't really tested in this setup it's tough to know if it's way off or not. Only 1-2C aloft will make a big difference here. It's interesting the 850s on the 3km NAM match the FV3 better than the Euro...

Euro

FV3

3km NAM

The warm nose can be seen clearly here on this sounding... it's very shallow but enough.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Yes do not forget the possibility of a natural disaster occurring just a few days after the storm given the heavy rain threat. Mostly foothills/mountains but I could see river flooding down east too.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Euro is way off. No way theres rain that far north in the piedmont. Im going with the FV3.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE
Euro is not good in short range and it has the low further north into southern Ga that’s why it’s warm also.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Interesting post by someone at the other board about the FV3.

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania. We had a snowstorm on 11/15. Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area. The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior. The Mets blew them off. The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said. We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office. On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW. By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet. We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”. The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk. The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.