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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

GaStorm said:
How reliable is the UK snow map compared to others? This would be good for my area if it's not ice.
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It has been steady. That last run started to broaden out those colored areas outside of the core which is a good sign imo. Euro should come in similar. With that said I would gradually knock numbers by 1/2 to 1/3 as you get down into that lighter purple transition zone beneath the core
 
GEFS went north some...which matters if your on the southern extent.
 
Something knowone is talking about. While all the snow will be so much fun. The models show probably very heavy rain Thursday through Saturday next week. Areas that’s seen 2ft of snow will have rapid melting and major life threatening flooding possible land slides. That is a legitimate concern later in the week for western NC
 
Does anyone know about the WRF model, what range it’s effective in, and how well it typically performs? Looks like a short range model that goes out to 48 hours, but should it really not be considered outside of a shorter time frame?


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i don’t know that ensembles are the best tool when the system is on your doorstep. It’s time to put more weight in the mesoscale models imo the precip is there but we need to sniff out these boundaries
 
WRAL now going for 1-3" for most of Wake. I'd gladly take that, would be amazing by December standards. Hopefully we get snow and not sleet or ZR.

NWS RAH also gives a 1% chance of 12 inches or more...so you're saying there's a chance? Lol.
 
CyclonicFury said:
WRAL now going for 1-3" for most of Wake. I'd gladly take that, would be amazing by December standards. Hopefully we get snow and not sleet or ZR.

NWS RAH also gives a 1% chance of 12 inches or more...so you're saying there's a chance? Lol.
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I think more like 3 to 6 from east to west.
 
GEFS look way more realistic for GA and SC. The southern edge of the snow total map may not even verify given a strong warm nose of mixing.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
i don’t know that ensembles are the best tool when the system is on your doorstep. It’s time to put more weight in the mesoscale models imo the precip is there but we need to sniff out these boundaries
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I think WebberWeather was saying this a while ago. One or two runs of the ensembles can skew the results greatly. Look on the latest run how there is a large swath in Georgia/SC, likely due to an outlier run with a far different track or temps


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