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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
I’ve seen snow at 41 degrees , you missed my point . The point is the moisture is gonna be scattered in nature and temps are very warm.

I think expectations are unrealistic because we are jealous of the Carolinas

I guess IF we see anything falls we should count it as a win


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I agree, like I said, I'm not expecting some surprise snow event or anything but scattered convective snow showers is a slight possibility and that would be a win if it materialized.
 
GFS has a lot of credit in handling moisture eroding on the northern edge. Seen this model handle it really well in past for areas like Boone, Jefferson, Wilkes/Surry. I think further south trends continue.
 
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_48.png
So is this ULL intensifying with this short range model?
 
The difference between the mesoscale models and globals with the 850 low track is certainly interesting. The Euro and FV3 both take it through northern Louisiana while the RGEM and 3km NAM want to take it into northern Mississippi and Alabama, likely the reason they are so much warmer still than globals. Sometimes the RGEM and 3km NAM can have a north/amped bias at the edge of their forecast range so this will be something to watch. If you like snow and ice you want a look like this below to show up soon on the meso models.
fv3p_z850_vort_us_7.png
 
I'd expect precip to be a little more expansive north, SW flow aloft over top the CAD dome.....3k picking up on that better
Nomanslandva said:
It is mine today:) Seriously, I know it is a good one. I am baffled at the difference between the 12 and 3k NAM up here. I have stepped back from the edge.
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A met by the name of Snowgoose69on Amerwx had this to say for my ATL folks:

I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z(NAM) verified as shown (which it likely won't). There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across. Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected. I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX.
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