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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Last minute north trends commencing in all future runs. I think Sparta NC will be max. Watch out south-west VA too.
 
I think models is under doing the strength of wedge because outside today it’s really chilly and lower dewpoints today than what was forecasted. Gfs is doing a horrible job with wedge but the Fv3 is doing much better.
 
At hour 60 of the 12z RGEM, you can see the moisture associated with the trailing ULL very clearly on the precip maps in N AL/GA.

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif
 
Most of the changes we see at this stage will be within the range of model "noise" and variability from run to run. In order to detect any significant trends you'd want to look at a series of 3-4 runs to see if there is a consistent shift north/south with features. One model run from one model is definitely not a trend. As we get into the reliable range of the meso models this afternoon they will imo be the models of choice to watch closely, especially the 3km NAM and RGEM combo which is tough to beat.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I think models is under doing the strength of wedge because outside today it’s really chilly and lower dewpoints today than what was forecasted. Gfs is doing a horrible job with wedge but the Fv3 is doing much better.
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Being that we live in the south, most of the time we get last minute north trend before the event. Not saying it will happen, but very possible that the north trend will continue as most models have it. Also we do have the short range models south, so who knows
 
Upstate and NC an additional few inches out of the trailing ULL. This storm is going into Tues for those areas. Just crazy long duration of winter weather

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Precip shield was a smidge north but other features about the same to be honest .and I think GFS is still having thermal issues.
 
About 2 days away from snow hitting the ground in our northern zones. I don’t think last minute climo trends are noise when you walk a fine line given the critical thermal profile for nearly everyone.
 
I would say still seeing positive trends and looks from the models for the people who will see frozen and or freezing precip .very cold rain .here, but it's all good. At least it's not 75 to 80 degrees .
 
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