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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

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This has been trend lately with gfs/fv3, but I also believe this could be even further SW as some other models have more of a suppression and colder. This image here, IF IF plays out right then places in central Ga will have a nice suprise also.
 
Not to shoot anyone down, but this is perfect for south-west VA down into north-west NC if any last minute north jog of 50 miles occurs like it has done in recent years. This could be a rare all heavy snow event given the wiggle room we now have to keep the ice and sleet near Statesville south.
 
The moisture fetch from this system is going to be insane, already blossoming up across the Arklatex region right now. I haven't check to any ground truth to it yet, but just the fact that it's revving up now gets you hyped to start transitioning into storm mode now that we finally have something to watch evolve within hours. I wonder if we'll be over or under 50 here tomorrow, I'm betting under especially if the layer of clouds streaming in tonight thicken up after sunrise and throughout the day tomorrow.
 
dsaur said:
Just have to wait and see how stout the cad is. It's always under forecast. I'll be now time for most of Ga, and if some gets it, it won't be everyone. But cad is ever tricky, and it can give good surprises. A favorite sleet storm comes to mind.
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Well if GA gets backside snow, it won't be from the CAD, but from the CAA from the northwest as the upper level trough swings through.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The moisture fetch from this system is going to be insane, already blossoming up across the Arklatex region right now. I haven't check to any ground truth to it yet, but just the fact that it's revving up now gets you hyped to start transitioning into storm mode now that we finally have something to watch evolve within hours. I wonder if we'll be over or under 50 here tomorrow, I'm betting under especially if the layer of clouds streaming in tonight thicken up after sunrise and throughout the day tomorrow.
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Whats your expectations for us??
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The moisture fetch from this system is going to be insane, already blossoming up across the Arklatex region right now. I haven't check to any ground truth to it yet, but just the fact that it's revving up now gets you hyped to start transitioning into storm mode now that we finally have something to watch evolve within hours. I wonder if we'll be over or under 50 here tomorrow, I'm betting under especially if the layer of clouds streaming in tonight thicken up after sunrise and throughout the day tomorrow.
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I was wondering the same. There were some light returns over me earlier and I had some very light sleet fall for a bit around 11. One of the forecast radars on 11alive had sleet pushing in again around 7AM in the morning into West GA.
 
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Can't help to think how far south the low is and backside energy on the RGEM 0z. Something to watch also
 
I am increasingly not buying the switchover to rain a lot of forecasts have for the CLT area. Maybe towards Rock Hill, and the Southern and Southeast suburbs but not CLT proper.
 
SimeonNC said:
I am increasingly not buying the switchover to rain a lot of forecasts have for the CLT area. Maybe towards Rock Hill, and the Southern and Southeast suburbs but not CLT proper.
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It’s likely going to be 31 or 32 degree freezing rain but the impact would be more like a cold rain. However, I think sleet totals there could be huge in northern mecklenburg....maybe even staying sleety instead of rain drops. I’m mostly using the CMC temps for this Charlotte metro analysis.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s likely going to be 31 or 32 degree freezing rain but the impact would be more like a cold rain. However, I think sleet totals there could be huge in northern mecklenburg....maybe even staying sleety instead of rain drops. I’m mostly using the CMC temps for this Charlotte metro analysis.
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You think northern mecklenburg would get a good bit of snow before the sleet sets in ?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Whats your expectations for us??
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I'm still thinking the same scenario I've been mentioning the past couple of days. It's likely mostly rain, but I still think Atlanta will get sleet/freezing rain out of this, it's just a matter of how much if any accumulates and that I don't feel like can be determined until we nail down the timing on the HP building in to establish our CAD. I actually made a preliminary map tonight, but decided not to post it. Timing is so critical with this. We need this CAD to be in place ahead of this storm to better our chances of seeing some wintry mix even if it's a miniscule amount. On the plus side if all else fails, we can punt to Monday/Tuesday instead. lol

MBell said:
I was wondering the same. There were some light returns over me earlier and I had some very light sleet fall for a bit around 11. One of the forecast radars on 11alive had sleet pushing in again around 7AM in the morning into West GA.
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Maybe that band of precip in Northern MS/AR could arrive in W. GA by then assuming it holds together.
 
A little off topic, but I’m concerned for some sneaky icing/mix around Raleigh south into South Carolina with moisture coming off the Atlantic Friday of next week. CMC shows this and other models not too far off. I think it trends colder given what’s likely going to be on the ground and nearby to the west.
 
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