Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[1300m]

UK looks a little SE off the coast at hour 72 than it’s 12z run. FV ticked SE a hair too.

If we can get a Euro/UKMET/FV3-GFS consensus I'll feel pretty good about getting the NAM onboard, and it's profile should fall inline (hopefully). Don't forget, the Euro is actually higher resolution (9km) than the 12km NAM we've been looking at thus far, so it shouldn't be totally out to lunch with pytpe and I'd certainly trust it with strong support from the EPS over the NAM at this point.

 

[Jessy89]

Can someone post the ukie

 

[Kylo]

Yeah seems like there's a trend to move it more ots rather than bending the coast line. Certainly good for Central NC peeps

Yes, if we could get the NAM to model the GFS track would be interesting. Maybe 12z tomorrow.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

FV3 out to 30 is south

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Your saying no

Woodruff Road north is prime for some
Snow and sleet. Should be a fun storm. I’ll be south towards the golden strip so I’ll be in the battle zone. I’m thinking a heavy IP/ZR with backend 1.5” snow Sunday night/ Monday morning. North of 85 should see at least 4”. What area do you live in?

 

[Jessy89]

Woodruff Road north is prime for some
Snow and sleet. Should be a fun storm. I’ll be south towards the golden strip so I’ll be in the battle zone. I’m thinking a heavy IP/ZR with backend 1.5” snow Sunday night/ Monday morning. North of 85 should see at least 4”. What area do you live in?

Between liberty and Pickens close to the airport

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Where's Mack ???

Him and JB are sloshing in the bathtub. @Tarheel1 did you give up on us?? 12k NAM tried to lolipop us with 3.25” of cold rain :weenie: Best run of the day

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Ukie, GFS, FV3 all south so far tonight. They all seemingly drag the 850 line a good bit south

 

[Tarheel1]

I just want to toss this out there for GSP peeps! If you have any hope of seeing anything besides rain, pay attention to temps tomorrow! Forecast high of 53, that’s bad enough, but if there’s more sun and fact that it’s ahead of the front, upper 50s are possible. I don’t care what the DPs are, when you wake up Saturday morning and it’s in the mid 40s, you can wetbulb your ass off and only get to mid/upper 30s. Don’t say you havnt been warned!

 

[TheBatman]

I can feel emotion are running high tonight. Remember guys it’s just December 6th. It’s still technically fall..

 

[WxWatch]

I can feel emotion are running high tonight. Remember guys it’s just December 6th. It’s still technically fall..

It's the most wonderful time of the year!

 

[deltadog03]

If we can get a Euro/UKMET/FV3-GFS consensus I'll feel pretty good about getting the NAM onboard, and it's profile should fall inline (hopefully). Don't forget, the Euro is actually higher resolution (9km) than the 12km NAM we've been looking at thus far, so it shouldn't be totally out to lunch with pytpe and I'd certainly trust it with strong support from the EPS over the NAM at this point.

Great points .I forgot that the euro op is 9km

 

[CyclonicFury]

I can feel emotion are running high tonight. Remember guys it’s just December 6th. It’s still technically fall..

I don't think this will be the last winter storm threat. We still have the rest of December, January, February, and even March to go.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

FV3 is notably south of its last run at 48!

 

[Jessy89]

I just want to toss this out there for GSP peeps! If you have any hope of seeing anything besides rain, pay attention to temps tomorrow! Forecast high of 53, that’s bad enough, but if there’s more sun and fact that it’s ahead of the front, upper 50s are possible. I don’t care what the DPs are, when you wake up Saturday morning and it’s in the mid 40s, you can wetbulb your ass off and only get to mid/upper 30s. Don’t say you havnt been warned!

Very valid point I’ve seen it happen

 

[Jessy89]

What’s the chances the models get colder and more south tomorrow?

 

[Tarheel1]

FV3 is notably south of its last run at 48!

Pretty soon Roxboro will be out the game! That’s a win!

 

[1300m]

FV3 is notably south of its last run at 48!

Just the trend we wanted to see.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Holy fv3!!!!!!! Colder 850s more south

 

[Snowflowxxl]

NC posters will need shovels after that FV3 runs! BOOM