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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Yikes

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png
 
Someone at the other board said the NAM doesn't match its ensembles.

Also looks like the Canadian is snowier for NC.
 
Backside energy looks good to me on H5 but the 850s don't look good at all outside far northern GA or the northern half of AL. At least so far.
 
Well, maybe the models are doing a 180 today. Only waited about 60 hours out.
 
Wow, my local NWS has bumped up rain and snow into the grids starting Sat. night through Monday night. 100% chance of rain/snow Saturday night they're calling.
 
The one discernible trend that's occurring with the GFS in the short range when trends actually mean something instead of noise, is the s/w near the Baja is becoming much sharper and the downstream s/w ridge axis over Texas is bigger and the s/w in the upper midwest & Manitoba is slowing. If this continues translating forward in time, we'll end up w/ a more amped wave.
gfs_z500_vort_us_fh24_trend (2).gif
 
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