Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[scroback]

With this much fgen at 6z the idea of a virga storm to me is bs

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That's a deep layer of dry air though. 2.5km of it that needs to be moistened before precip can reach the ground. Plus note the dry NE'erly flow associated with the CAD. The HP is still pumping in dry air

 

[scroback]

Even though the precip output says otherwise, the end of the 3km NAM run verbatim is a wet snow sounding for Charlotte with a deep isothermal layer extending up to 800 hPa and surface temps barely above freezing. As soon as warm air advection kicks in aloft, this would go over to sleet here.

View attachment 8627

Just wait for that 15mb thick above freezing layer at 825mb to have you go to sleet right away

 

[scroback]

Crazy dry nose developing on the nam at 850. It then develops a sharp 850mb front near the SC /Ga border. This means moisture inflow is stopped and we are relying on moistening from h7 down to generate precip.

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You beat me to it lol

 

[RollTide18]

Wonder what the GFS will do with the trailing wave.

 

[scroback]

Wow, gonna need to edit the colorbar on this map...11" of sleet

 

[deltadog03]

GFS is a little slower with the surface low, and also a little bit weaker as well.

 

[packfan98]

HP a little weaker on the gfs. Looks to be an unfavorable trend at this point.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Last night I was 10 miles away from an inch of ice now it’s back in NE GA. That trailing energy looks nice tho

 

[WeatherLC]

Wow, gonna need to edit the colorbar on this map...11" of sleetView attachment 8630

will you post a zr map

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Low looks a bit north and 850s are warmer

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

850s colder on GFS through 60

 

[scroback]

will you post a zr map

Also included the snowmap with most of the sleet removed. ZR is probably significantly overdone here

 

[Webberweather53]

CAD is stronger this run but I wouldn't call this one run change a trend, it's well within the noise overall.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Yea colder air comes down quickly as the storm arrives.

 

[snowlover91]

It's worth noting that the 3km NAM at hour 60 and GFS match up very well on dewpoints.

GFS

3km NAM

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

At 66 850s much colder. 850s below freezing in Ne GA and they were not at 6Z.

 

[Jessy89]

Would that green in upstate. Be snow on gfs. I know how the TT sometimes doesn’t show it

 

[WxWatch]

I like how the 12z GFS pushes the low southward as the low tracks east. That's realistic. It's being pushed southward due to the strong sfc high.

 

[ATLwxfan]

So far a nice chilly rain for GA. Not sure if the ULL will deliver. But by all means subtract the ice and give us at least a flizzard.


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[Tarheel1]

CAD is stronger this run but I wouldn't call this one run change a trend, it's well within the noise overall.
View attachment 8634

The high popping in PA , is a great thing!