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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

DadOfJax said:
This is just epic....going from feet to sleet to rain for most. Hang on to whichever model gives you hope, but at the end, this is going to be a meltdown like we haven't seen in a while. Perfect example of why the NWS offices are conservative....it usually pays off.
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I was joking about this yesterday...this has been going on for years
"Wow global models looks great and they are trending better"
*nam comes in warm*
"It's the NAM, it's probably not right"
*hrrr comes in even warmer than NAM*
"Eh, the hrrr doesn't handle winter weather or CAD well"
*rains all night*
 
In this case, trends are not your friends if you want snow. Perhaps RAH will be right after all? Still need the NAM 3K to be a little closer in time to be sure
 
All I have gotten from today’s runs so far is the CMC has come in line with the other globals. UK looks similar to 0z.
 
DadOfJax said:
This is just epic....going from feet to sleet to rain for most. Hang on to whichever model gives you hope, but at the end, this is going to be a meltdown like we haven't seen in a while. Perfect example of why the NWS offices are conservative....it usually pays off.
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FFC is not being very conservative in terms of forecasting. I mean where is the support for this?
Plotter.php
 
scroback said:
I was joking about this yesterday...this has been going on for years
"Wow global models looks great and they are trending better"
*nam comes in warm*
"It's the NAM, it's probably not right"
*hrrr comes in even warmer than NAM*
"Eh, the hrrr doesn't handle winter weather or CAD well"
*rains all night*
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And you started out so good.... (slowly backs away from the ban button). ;)
 
Kylo said:
All I have gotten from today’s runs so far is the CMC has come in line with the other globals. UK looks similar to 0z.
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GFS still showed a good storm for most of NC. Usually we would love to get totals like it showed the last run.
 
like I've been saying and won't likely change, this looks like a major IP fest for clt and now even north clt areas and rah
 
ForsythSnow said:
FFC is not being very conservative in terms of forecasting. I mean where is the support for this?
Plotter.php
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Yeah that doesn't make sense at all, the only thing that I've been saying is the northeastern parts of this state need to watch for ice because of how CAD can go in the models. I don't see the snow outside of the far, far northeastern part of the state or with backside flurries, and the sleet might just be at the onset.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
But its trending in the wrong direction, right ?
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Yes...general trend is not good....still time to change though...complex scenario with a lot of moving pieces. My gut is that this trend continues though and this becomes a major sleetfest for western half of NC, some snow for the mtns, and a cold rain for the rest of us.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
They have to think models are underestimating the CAD
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They might be. At the same time, there could be pockets where the column supports it as the NAM and other models show some small break off 850mb freezing pockets, so perhaps they could go further up too. Maybe this is where they are getting the snow part because otherwise sleet seems more reasonable. However as the low approaches that risk goes to almost 0 when the 850s skyrocket and the surface dives. At the same time, I expect their forecast to be different in a few hours showing mostly rain and a little sleet. If they keep it, I have to wonder why since it's going downhill for GA per the models fast today.
 
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