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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Snowluvr said:
Does it put Atlanta back to cold rain?
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Atlanta was and is more than likely going to have a cold rain. Areas along and especially north and east of Lake Lanier are the only places in Georgia that will flirt with a shot of impactful winter wx. Don’t let the occasional smash job on the FV3 or the NAM lead you to believe that the immediate Atlanta area (ITP) is going to get burried in snow or ice. Hasn’t ever been the case with this storm.
 
accu35 said:
fv3p_asnow_eus_26.png
What the heck? No good? Well maybe you didn't get 50 inches so y'all can settle for 33 inches
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I’ll be saving this one too.
 
Love reading this forum and learning from you all.

Can somebody explain the FV3? Is this a new model? Are we just testing it on this storm, or has it been around? I'm a bit confused by it.
 
Looked like the eastern NC coast was going to get in on it at one point with the trends farther offshore but of course that has stopped. Guess we will have to be jealous of literally everyone else in the state
 
TerryInTucker said:
Love reading this forum and learning from you all.

Can somebody explain the FV3? Is this a new model? Are we just testing it on this storm, or has it been around? I'm a bit confused by it.
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It’s the new version of the GFS. It’s in beta now. It is expected to go live and replace the current GFS in January. Hope that helps!
 
Storm5 said:
Me too cause the mid Atlantic misses out . Now that is a MASSIVE Victory . I bet it’s meltdown mode over there


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Well they seem to be able to pull a rabbit out there hat at the last minute when they need it. I remember the Jan 2010 winter storm, it was looking like a SE crush job, well it shifted north inside 24 hours on the modeling, we mixed like crazy and the MA got 4-8" when they were seemingly out of it. I never forget that. And of course we all know what happened for the next 4 weeks after that. I wouldn't be surprised if the DC crew gets more snow than people Raleigh to Charlotte. I think a last minute shift NW inside 36 almost always happens.
 
Jon said:
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06z NAM slightly weaker CAD than 00z and slightly warmer 850s


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That’s what I was concerned about yesterday evening and why I made the comment about the 18z runs being probably about the best we will see. May end up wrong, but trends toward less cold solutions need to be watched and are quite typical around here.
 
I am concerned about trends today. As bad as I want them to hold steady or go south I know they probably won’t. If we see another south jog it be last minute
 
Jon said:
feee610b99d381d4254fb18f6cead7bc.gif


06z NAM slightly weaker CAD than 00z and slightly warmer 850s


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HP 1mb weaker but more important ever so slight latter, drag if you will getting into favorable position. watch the axis center over Wisconsin on your loops. The position and timing of HP is as important as it strength in Cad setups. That will be the part to keep an eye out for . If your in SC or NE GA, you want it to get in position a smidge quicker so it can funnel the lower DPs down and have in place before moisture falls. helps the ole wet-bulb better.
 
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