Its still the long range so it may trend warmer, is the nam ever too warm?
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
There have been many cases where it's totally failed here even in CAD situations. What worries me is that someone with knowledge said a recent update from the NAM tends to be too dry in regards to QPF it seems lately. If that's the case, evaporative cooling could catch everyone off guard down this way as heavier precip moves into the area with a wedge actually flowing in strongly.
I wouldn't worry...it will change probably a colder solution at 12z NAM
I'd like to add to my above post, that you can see when the heavier precipitation enters the Midlands area, on both the 00z and now 06z, that is when you see the quick change over.
Does anyone have hourly NAM model frames?
Does anyone have hourly NAM model frames?
Wow. Hopefully by the tonight Jim Gandy will have more of an idea for Columbia Shawn.
FWIW: 6z Icon is also suppressing the system even more and is also colder by 3 to 4 degrees.
Even for Atlanta or your area?
Icon model really have no idea how to handle wedge at all. 1036 High and the temps stay close to the upper 30s for midlands wow.
Something else thats not being talked about thats is concerning to me is the potential for moisture to be rob by thunderstorms along gulf coast.
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06z Gfs almost identical to 0z maybe a little colder.
could only get hrs 50-60 on the gif as the file is to big for anything else
Wow let’s hope Wedge build in deep like what the Nam is showing.
packfan98
Moderator
6z FV3 GFS is a little more amped up. It results in a little further north and warmer solution.
Gfs shifted south.!
packfan98
Moderator
On several of the critical time periods it didn't. What were you referring to? The track of the low, surface or column temps, footprint of snow map, etc...???
It shifted south a little and I see now that it came closer to the coast.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah just minor changes well within what we should expect at this time period. It is always stressful for those living on the southern end of the potential. As long as the Euro/UKMet has no big shifts over the next two runs, we can start nailing down the details using the hi-res nam.
Isn’t their a 6z Euro now or CMC
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, looked like the GFS, Euro, FV3, and NAM all crushed NC last night from Raleigh westward. I don't think I have ever seen all the models do that before.