B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I measured 9.5 inches in my yard.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Wow. And people thought you were crazy for being so optimistic !
Did it overperform for you guys. ??
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, now looks like the models are showing more snow here tomorrow.
I could see up to 8” tomorrow in the mountains....over 4” east of the mountains. Placement is unclear but I sort of like the Statesville area. Even further north 2-4” could occur overnight through 10am Monday into Wilkes/Surry.
Jessy89
Member
Wouldn’t everything north of 540 line be snow?Trying not to get sucked back in for disappointment
Good grief. Another snowstorm tomorrow ? Or would it be considered the same storm ?
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Same storm.
Oh boy winds are starting to crank and power flickered....
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Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
RollTide18
Member
Not necessarily, for one modeled temps are warm in the 40s
Yeah that feb 2014 definetly overperformed for us, got 3 inches from it, this time looks like the same things are happening, guidance is picking up on it more and more, hopefully it can occur a little into daylight for slight diurnal heating allowing for more convective snow like last time
Snownut
Member
snowlover91
Member
Big gust here. Had 5” of snow but now about 2” of slop is left from all the cold rain. Here’s the wind chart for the gust that just hit. Came out of nowhere and you can see it pretty clearly.
Jessy89
Member
Tomorrow I wouldn’t be seeing surprised if somebody got under a winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow evening and night
No, I would never count on just the 540 thickness line to determine snowfall. The 540 line indicates rain/snow line 50% of the time, but not always. Of course, the lower the thickness value is, the colder it is. So, if the thickness value was like 534, the snow chance would increase.
Every time we get a wind gust here, the trees crackle/limbs snap, kinda worrying me a bit, we haven't had a ice event like this in a long time, it really just snuck up on us
Jessy89
Member
Thank you that was helpful
That ULL doesn't look that impressive on the models. But, I wouldn't be surprised if it dumped an additional 1-3" for the areas that did get the snowfall from the main low.
Kylo
Member
Horrendous luck. It really has been for your corner of Wake. Look at these near misses just to your SE over the past few winters. So it’s not just “climo”. The dam will bust soon and you will jack.
https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20110110/accum.20110110.gif
https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140211.gif
https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20180104.png
I’ll be a good sport and eat crow on that one. Nicely done, Brick
Thanks! Yeah we have been on a cold streak. Or a hot streak, depending on how you look at it. Getting some sleet mixing back in with the rain with this heavy downpour now.
Soo.. what's next ? Torchmas then same story every year... a winter storm sometime between jan 3-10 ? Along with brutal cold ?
Snowflowxxl
Member
Congrats to everyone on the snow! We have 3 more months, lets break records!
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like we lucked out with not getting much ice, too.
RollTide18
Member
The record here in Montgomery is 4 inches I believe we could shatter that record here.
NoSnowATL
Member
I think more than 50% of the SE will break snow total records this year.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
There are some areas where I don't think this will happen because of Feb. 1973 but what I'm hoping (and possibly wishcasting some) is with the factors that could play in this year, to see a good ole' Miller A that gives everyone that's realistic to see it a shot at some pretty wet snow.
Kylo
Member
NAM is nice for tomorrow. The UK had a lot of precip but was warmer.
olhausen
Member
Well no snow but i did get some freezing rain which is the 3rd day I’ve had winter weather this week. Nothing big but hey it’s only December! Congrats to all those who scored big in North Carolina.
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I'll give some credit to the Farmers Almanac for almost nailing the dates for snowfall in NC. This was for the 4th region for their forecast area, which includes NC. Sometimes their outlooks are right. I mean, they got the timing right for the ULL that's going to dump additional snowfall.
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Tidbits snow 4-8” in mountains..lots of moisture east too but temps on nam don’t allow the clown maps to respond. I really don’t believe in rain as currently modeled.
Round Oak Weather
Member
If I even saw half of the 16-18 inches that happened here in ‘73 this winter I would be the happiest person alive. Shoot if I saw a quarter of that I would be happy
packfan98
Moderator
NWS Raleigh is going for around an inch of accumulation tomorrow. Here are the expected and max potential maps:
got any of them perdy maps for the upstate?NWS Raleigh is going for around an inch of accumulation tomorrow. Here are the expected and max potential maps:
packfan98
Moderator
Afraid not. Doesn't look like the weather service thinks there is going to be any accumulation there. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw some flakes flying though.
this has a way better chance to overperform, but could whiff
packfan98
Moderator
Here's the NWS Raleigh Discussion: As of 350 PM Sunday...
Surface low has emerged off the SE Coast and will pull slowly east- northeast away from the NC coast as a series of shortwaves eject east through the base of mid/upper level trough trough in place across the SE US.
Per 18z/9 GSO sounding, the cold deep near freezing isothermal layer did indeed prevail across the far northern/northwestern Piedmont, in the heart of the cold air damming region in place east of the mountains. As of 20z, latest reports coming in across that region have a snowfall maximum of 14 to 14.5 inches across Forsyth and Person counties. However, impressive mid-level dry punch overspreading the area from the west signals the loss of saturation aloft and ice crystals aloft, which will largely end the production of accumulating snow and sleet, that is until the arrival arrival of the next shortwave later this evening and overnight. Thus, expect the snow/sleet across the far northern zones to change-over to light freezing rain/drizzle to occur within the next hour.
The approach of the upper wave late this evening and overnight will lead to re-saturation and cooling aloft. At the same time, weak cold dry air advection on the back-side of the surface low moving farther offshore, will result in near to sub-freezing temps across the the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. The re-introduction of lift and ice into the cloud will result in another period of light snow/sleet across spreading east across the area. Additional snowfall amounts are expected to be light, ranging between a half inch to 1 to 1.5 inches across the far northern zones. While the far SE counties could see some a mix wet snow and rain, above freezing temps in the mid 30s will result in little to accumulation.
Surface low has emerged off the SE Coast and will pull slowly east- northeast away from the NC coast as a series of shortwaves eject east through the base of mid/upper level trough trough in place across the SE US.
Per 18z/9 GSO sounding, the cold deep near freezing isothermal layer did indeed prevail across the far northern/northwestern Piedmont, in the heart of the cold air damming region in place east of the mountains. As of 20z, latest reports coming in across that region have a snowfall maximum of 14 to 14.5 inches across Forsyth and Person counties. However, impressive mid-level dry punch overspreading the area from the west signals the loss of saturation aloft and ice crystals aloft, which will largely end the production of accumulating snow and sleet, that is until the arrival arrival of the next shortwave later this evening and overnight. Thus, expect the snow/sleet across the far northern zones to change-over to light freezing rain/drizzle to occur within the next hour.
The approach of the upper wave late this evening and overnight will lead to re-saturation and cooling aloft. At the same time, weak cold dry air advection on the back-side of the surface low moving farther offshore, will result in near to sub-freezing temps across the the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. The re-introduction of lift and ice into the cloud will result in another period of light snow/sleet across spreading east across the area. Additional snowfall amounts are expected to be light, ranging between a half inch to 1 to 1.5 inches across the far northern zones. While the far SE counties could see some a mix wet snow and rain, above freezing temps in the mid 30s will result in little to accumulation.
SCweather
Member
Raleigh going to get in the action again tomorrow.... Would be nice if that backside snow would hit areas that didn't see anything during the main event. Buttttt yeh, i reckon it doesn't work like that.