bouncycorn
Meteorologist
First system on ECMWF cuts.. second system is suppressed into the middle of the GOM.. great.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Meanwhile 00z UKMET looked like it was setting up for a monster. Initial "cutting" low so far north that it would help push a secondary low at hr 144 south towards a boundary near the gulf coast.. classic miller A setup there if it went out past 144 hrs.
griteater
Member
I joked the other day that I never worry about suppression (after all, we have like, what, 10-15 days a year when it's even cold enough for wintry precipitation), and I mentioned that if I saw lows running from Mexico City to Havana, it wouldn't bother me a bit. Well, the Euro just did that, lol. But it really wasn't that far off from the GFS here. Just give it a touch more spacing and room to breathe and it's good to go. It's a good position to be in 10 days out
griteater
Member
CMC Ensemble Mean has a cold Miller A look
griteater
Member
00z Canadian Ensemble Members on Christmas Day
griteater
Member
Euro Ens Mean also has a cold, suppressed, Miller A look here.....good by me
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
MMFS may be about to drop another monster on us... hopefully it doesn't cut.
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I just don’t know how much faith I have in storm #2. My gut feeling is sorta like the euro with it - I think the immense amount of cold air is going to suppress it into oblivion.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Not digging enough this run and instead we get a cutter..
6z GFS worse. Weaker first system (Wed night-Thursday), didn't dig the second system, and still waiting to see what the x-mas system does.
Here's the second one's totals (still not bad for some of us):
Here's the second one's totals (still not bad for some of us):
~noon on Christmas:
Pac ridge slightly flatter 1st system, nod to the Euro and Ukmet. Don't like the trends at all with that one. On to the next one
The above image (I posted) is at hour 225. This is at 252 (27 hours later):
GFS turning the Christmas day system into a long duration overrunning event before slp gets cranking..... mercy
Still going, also tons of ip and zr on SE edge of the snow
Yep. Here's hour 264 (39 hours after the first image):
This would look like the 1996 storm for RDU (sleet fest).
Met1985
Member
Ill take my 30 inches and be happy.
Take with huge grain of salt but this looks fun
With this depiction, RDU would have nearly 36 hours of heavy sleet. Would be fun...