• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

NickyBGuarantee said:
Eh I would say the opposite looks like many have some snow but the track is much further west on many of them giving a lot of us rain.. maybe some backside snow. This is what I’m afraid we will see more of over the coming days. As this is more climo. I hope I’m wrong though
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be surprised if the first system cuts north/west and the second system (25th-26th) is the real blockbuster storm.
 
First storm is a 2 prong level for success. Need the TPV to get out ahead of our wave and situate itself over the GL, need the ridge out west to really pump and help the wave dig to get the moisture cranked up. I’m 50/50 on the first event. There’s clearly enough noise for the possibility but as others have alluded to, it’s an extremely fine line between that and an apps cutter and CAD cold rain. The 2nd system you’re going to have Arctic air in place and the first system as confluence with an already pumped up western ridge. I’m more like 75/25 that it will succeed right now.
 
something i thought was interesting is that the amount of variance in the ensembles actually went up in how it handles the trough dropping into the plains. this is surface pressure but since surface pressure is just going to reflect what's going on in the upper atmosphere i think its a fine enough proxy. seems like there's a forecasting problem upstream that's giving the GFS a hard time, thus causing differences in the timing/position of that trough. main point- don't think any solution is off the table, this will require some patience, you know the drill, etc.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh132_trend.gif
 
ILMRoss said:
something i thought was interesting is that the amount of variance in the ensembles actually went up in how it handles the trough dropping into the plains. this is surface pressure but since surface pressure is just going to reflect what's going on in the upper atmosphere i think its a fine enough proxy. seems like there's a forecasting problem upstream that's giving the GFS a hard time, thus causing differences in the timing/position of that trough. main point- don't think any solution is off the table, this will require some patience, you know the drill, etc.

View attachment 126912
Click to expand...
Sub 150 hours to even start getting an idea like usual.
 
I’m with you guys. I think we’re pulling for the bomb out of the Arctic to set the table for a big overrunning event. That’s our wheelhouse. Wave dives in bringing the Siberian express, bombs out underneath that -NAO, slowly pulls out as a big 50/50 low, strong high pressure builds in then a new low rides that boundary out.
 
iGRXY said:
GEFS is stronger but has more WAA
Click to expand...
It is indeed warmer this run on the GEFS Mean, but man, this is a really good looking setup. Here is a comparison of last night's GEFS vs. tonight's. More western ridging, better -NAO couplet, and that negative anomaly over LA/MS (the storm wave) is in a really good spot (well south). On top of that, we have the big storm going up into the northeast that drags the baroclinic zone / surface cold front all the way into the Gulf and SE Coast waters, so that's a great starting point for storm #2's surface low track. The setup is there. Just got to see it all come together

TuJFePa.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top