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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Shaggy said:
In all the back and forth debate about whether to shut down or reopen I think we lose sight of how lucky we are getting.

All this new antibody data shows the possibility that infections are as widespread as feared that led to the lockdown policies.

What was unforeseen was asymptomatic rates. This may be the biggest bullet we have dodged as a nation In all of this.

Just imagine 2.7 million more sick people in NY and what mayhem that would have caused.
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Here is the thing, I told this to my wife, parents and parents in law ect. This is our test for how we react and what out government will do and act. We now know by sight and not by just studies, how fragile our supply chain is, how incompetent the world governments are and how their fix is about just throwing money at something.

We need to take this as a lesson.
 
EmersonGA said:
Unfortunately, given the lag in our testing it will be days if not a week or more before the jump is seen. Our daily results are typically for tests taken a long time before.
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The more I've been thinking about it recently, the more I'm realizing that the reporting lag of 2 weeks+ is really making it difficult to follow things in Ga and elsewhere on a daily basis. For example, regarding infections with first symptoms as of today (4/24), we really won't have a good handle on that number for at least 2 weeks and maybe not til 3 weeks. And then when one considers that it can take a week from getting infected to showing first symptoms, it is even more complicated to analyze trends.

So, today's increase in reported cases at the main GA website is largely going to be from folks first getting infected way back near the start of April! Do folks realize this?
 
GaWx said:
The more I've been thinking about it recently, the more I'm realizing that the reporting lag of 2 weeks+ is really making it difficult to follow things in Ga and elsewhere on a daily basis. For example, regarding infections with first symptoms as of today (4/24), we really won't have a good handle on that number for at least 2 weeks and maybe not til 3 weeks. And then when one considers that it can take a week from getting infected to showing first symptoms, it is even more complicated to analyze trends.

So, today's increase in reported cases at the main GA website is largely going to be from folks first getting infected way back near the start of April! Do folks realize this?
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No. most probably do not. Great articulation of a point, Larry!
There is little good current sourcing of info.
However, here's a link to a "one stop shop" that is about as "good" as I have been able to locate ... at least it is better than looking and relying on just one data set ... https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/maps-visuals
 
GaWx said:
The more I've been thinking about it recently, the more I'm realizing that the reporting lag of 2 weeks+ is really making it difficult to follow things in Ga and elsewhere on a daily basis. For example, regarding infections with first symptoms as of today (4/24), we really won't have a good handle on that number for at least 2 weeks and maybe not til 3 weeks. And then when one considers that it can take a week from getting infected to showing first symptoms, it is even more complicated to analyze trends.

So, today's increase in reported cases at the main GA website is largely going to be from folks first getting infected way back near the start of April! Do folks realize this?
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I don't think many people do. I did not until I heard Erik Erikson talking about it on the radio.
 
What is also concerning about the lag in cases is that when we see the drop we will feel like it is getting better in real time. When actually the drop will have applied to when everyone was doing the hardest socially distancing (the past week or two). Because of this, people will see the improvement as safety and be more willing to venture out, thus starting the cycle once more....
 
ontherocks said:
What is also concerning about the lag in cases is that when we see the drop we will feel like it is getting better in real time. When actually the drop will have applied to when everyone was doing the hardest socially distancing (the past week or two). Because of this, people will see the improvement as safety and be more willing to venture out, thus starting the cycle once more....
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Are you forgetting that as time goes on it will be harder for the virus to spread due to warmer weather ?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Are you forgetting that as time goes on it will be harder for the virus to spread due to warmer weather ?
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Although accurate that the virus’ ability to suspend in air and live on surfaces decreases with the increase in heat and humidity, that is surely not a cure all. There are many places globally right now that have higher temps and humidity than we are even going to see struggling with this, so the sun is not a magic bullet.
 
ontherocks said:
Although accurate that the virus’ ability to suspend in air and live on surfaces decreases with the increase in heat and humidity, that is surely not a cure all. There are many places globally right now that have higher temps and humidity than we are even going to see struggling with this, so the sun is not a magic bullet.
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Screen Shot 2020-04-24 at 5.00.57 PM.png
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Are you forgetting that as time goes on it will be harder for the virus to spread due to warmer weather ?
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Heat and humidity may mitigate the threat slightly, but it's not like people are going to be constantly outside. They'll be inside in an air conditioned environment where it'll spread just as easily.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Heat and humidity may mitigate the threat slightly, but it's not like people are going to be constantly outside. They'll be inside in an air conditioned environment where it'll spread just as easily.
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Florida? June? July? August? September (if we have power)?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Im guessing a lot of those hot and humid places are also very poor with inadequate healthcare.
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Honestly some of those places aren't exactly hot right now either. Ecuador just as an example, at about this time period, at least one person said their average is not exactly mid 80s+ right now but more like in the 70s, and although the upper 70s and sun can even be uncomfortable, it sounds like that's not enough. Seems like it has to be mid 80s+ with a certain amount of humidity to get the virus to decay.

You know, I just put "Ecuador temperature" in google and it has the highs in the 60s for the time being in one area. Mexico might be a better example than Ecuador if there's problems (and even Mexico's climate can be mixed).

I haven't paid attention with Australia anymore but I remember that their initial wave was largely travel based and I "think" they had started to plateau relatively quickly initially when they put in restrictions, but in the case of them, they're going into winter too, so they could have seen a rise recently. But if Australia had started to plateau initially, they might be a potential summer example.
 
Pick your poison ...
Today ...
and 13 more today in Alachua County alone ...
This is the 6:00 PM update for the State ...

Screen Shot 2020-04-24 at 6.22.19 PM.png

and for the County ...

Screen Shot 2020-04-24 at 6.24.47 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-04-24 at 6.24.58 PM.png
 
Past - "This can't be compared to the Flu" (even though it really wasn't; there was an effort to do some statistical evaluations/comparisons.) Folks were hammered for even attempting to bring a bit of clarity and common sense to the situation..

Present - As more and more studies are done showing the true infection rates are dramatically higher. oh, wait; now it's ok to compare to the Flu but only because it's worse and the death rates are 2-4x times higher than the Flu; an extremely convenient forget the past..

Future - Who knows however unless there's a miracle the economy is toast and people will suffer. We can be pretty sure whatever is said in the future will fit the narrative of the moment though..

We really should've focused on the most vulnerable and of course China should've disclosed the proper information at the very beginning however we can't go back yet we still hear about going back except we can't go back but now for the present it's kindof amazing how the very recent past is conveniently forgotten now that the narrative can be twisted yet again.

weeeee…….
 
These antibody test results are on shaky ground. So they are allowed by FDA without official approval and without any prerequisite other than telling the FDA they are validated?

I'm hopeful but my hopes are tempered back a bit after reading some articles on these tests.

www.nbcnews.com

What we can (and can't) take away from New York's antibody testing results

The data are particularly crucial as a national debate has emerged over when and how to begin to ease lockdowns.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
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