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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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I might listen to some of that video later, but I've already said that if you have a problem for the 2nd time, that what I'd likely try first would be asking for people that are higher risk to shelter in place. Maybe in the case of Georgia, it turns into just extending that "higher risk shelter in place" (though knowing how this virus trends, we might see a real downtrend soon before an uptrend).

That idea does admittedly have some problems though. You might be up in the millions with regular, healthy, people that live with higher risk people. But this path I think is worth a try, as long as it's made clear.
 
Not sure why WRAL's 7 day rolling avg is so off for NC. It's pulling the numbers from NCDHHS...I plotted the raw numbers from there site, graphic below. From WRAL's numbers, which they use NCDHHS stats, NC has had 1400+ positive cases past 3 days. I don't think that's correct.

Looking at the bottom graphic I would think it's going to be tough to sustain numbers below 250 a day with a state population of 10+ million.

Screen Shot 2020-04-26 at 11.45.59 AM.png
Screen Shot 2020-04-26 at 11.47.41 AM.png
 
They ship if you don’t live in Wilkes. Click the image to contact them via messenger.
 
So, you think this is hilarious?? Granted, I think it's quite ironic, but hilarious, not so much. On a side, when this is all said and done, A LOT of people are going to have had the virus.
ANYBODY can social distance whenever they want, if they are out and about. This doesn't need to change whenever the restrictions are slowly lifted. IF you are scared to go out, then stay home.
 
So, you think this is hilarious?? Granted, I think it's quite ironic, but hilarious, not so much. On a side, when this is all said and done, A LOT of people are going to have had the virus.
ANYBODY can social distance whenever they want, if they are out and about. This doesn't need to change whenever the restrictions are slowly lifted. IF you are scared to go out, then stay home.
Please tell that to the 15 folks, 2 of whom started sneezing, who piled on the elevator on the 2nd floor up when I went in to my office from the lobby today to pick up files (yes, I am practicing law from home) ... it is a 2 way street and going forward likely a lot of folks will be going in the wrong lane ... possibly out of an I don't give a poop attitude ... regrettably ...
 
Look, I don't agree with these "open up" protesters and understand why federal/state/local governments acted as they did because elected leaders have to show like they're doing "something" to protect citizens, but... can someone explain why Sweden has had, relatively, so much success fighting this virus without taking anywhere near as drastic actions as we took...

The Predicted Coronavirus Catastrophe Hasn’t Arrived In Sweden. What’s Next?

Population of Sweden is 10 million; roughly the same population as North Carolina. Stockholm is a larger city than both Raleigh and Charlotte. Their hospitals haven't been overrun (far from it) and there is capacity available to tread the sick. I realize hindsight is 20/20 so I'm not criticizing any public official for decisions they made in the public's best interest (which, politics aside, I hope we can agree that's why decisions to 'lock down' were made), but I would also hope that as we see other countries having success at handling this virus by taking different approach that we'd be receptive to adapting our policies accordingly. That's probably naive, but...

People are also overstating the lack of actions Sweden is taking, they have done things like closed schools etc....they also push social distancing.....and have closed a few bars and clubs that were not enforcing the social distancing....so the government is strongly pushing social distancing etc.

Second since you compared them to NC as we have similar populations, NC has around 10k total cases and 330ish deaths, Sweden has over 18k cases and over 2k deaths....which per million is higher than a lot of other countries. The people are also doing a lot of things on their own regardless of the official government policies.....


"Many Swedes support and are complying with the policy, which contrasts with the strict mandatory lockdowns imposed in many EU countries and has been heavily criticised by some scientists. The country’s death toll per million, while far lower than Italy’s and Spain’s, is also many times higher than those of its Nordic neighbours.

Some of the country’s leading medical professors and academics have been fiercely critical of the decision not to follow much of the rest of Europe into strict lockdown, publishing open letters and petitions calling for an urgent change of course and highlighting a death toll which, at 2,194, is three times the per-million tally recorded in Denmark and Germany and more than six times that of Finland.

Linde said Sweden’s relatively high death toll was “certainly not part of the plan” but conceded that the exceptional number of deaths in care homes, which so far account for more than half of all the country’s deaths from the coronavirus, was “one area where we have failed”.

The government passed early binding legislation banning visits to care homes for elderly people, she said, “but still the virus got in and a lot of deaths have occurred. We don’t know why this is – perhaps because some homes did not observe regulations, perhaps because staff’s jobs were not secure so they felt they could not afford to take sick leave … We’re investigating.

There is plenty of evidence that most people are falling in line, she said, citing a 96% fall in reservations at the country’s two most popular domestic holiday destinations after the government repeated its advice to stay at home over the Easter break. "
 
I never said Sweden took no steps to mitigate spread, only that they took a much softer approach. They closed universities, but elementary and secondary schools remained open.

You’re correct Sweden has experienced more deaths, to date, than North Carolina... but, the assumption, is that they’re also a lot closer to achieving herd immunity.

I thought the primary point of the lockdown was to limit the chances that our healthcare system gets overrun and slow the spread. Short of a vaccine, we’re not going to “stop” the spread of the virus (lockdown or not).

Do you believe that all the folks we “saved” by enforcing lock downs will never end up being exposed to and/or contract the virus and die from it? I don’t.

One could argue the faster a population achieves herd immunity the less deaths they’ll see overall as compared to countries where the virus spread occurs, albeit at a slower pace, over a longer period of time. Time will, ultimately, tell which approach proves to be more successful, but I think folks are misguided to simply disparage Sweden’s more pragmatic approach to handling the crisis.
 
Based on the numbers im looking at, shouldnt NC be one of the first states to open up ? 320+ deaths out of 10 million people. NC seems to have fared far better than GA.
 
Based on the numbers im looking at, shouldnt NC be one of the first states to open up ? 320+ deaths out of 10 million people. NC seems to have fared far better than GA.
NC shut down with 1/10th the cases GA did if I remember correctly. I'm not sure about NC's numbers but I know for GA's numbers it's a little early.
 
I never said Sweden took no steps to mitigate spread, only that they took a much softer approach. They closed universities, but elementary and secondary schools remained open.

You’re correct Sweden has experienced more deaths, to date, than North Carolina... but, the assumption, is that they’re also a lot closer to achieving herd immunity.

I thought the primary point of the lockdown was to limit the chances that our healthcare system gets overrun and slow the spread. Short of a vaccine, we’re not going to “stop” the spread of the virus (lockdown or not).

Do you believe that all the folks we “saved” by enforcing lock downs will never end up being exposed to and/or contract the virus and die from it? I don’t.

One could argue the faster a population achieves herd immunity the less deaths they’ll see overall as compared to countries where the virus spread occurs, albeit at a slower pace, over a longer period of time. Time will, ultimately, tell which approach proves to be more successful, but I think folks are misguided to simply disparage Sweden’s more pragmatic approach to handling the crisis.

The problem is the faster it spreads the more likely you are to overwhelm services, even in Sweden they estimate that only as much as 20% of the country has been infected though there is no real way to determine that so it could be higher or lower, but assuming 20% is correct it means they still need 30-40% of the population to get the virus to achieve herd immunity. So they are likely no where close to herd immunity ands it going to take a long time to get there...these figures are also with Sweden using a lot of social distancing and other rules that while not as strict as other places still goes a long way to reducing contact between people. There are people on this forum and certainly in this country that want things to go back to normal immediately and that is foolish....

I would disagree with the second bolded section, the faster this spreads the more people will die period.....the entire point is allowing people to get sick at a rate that allows the hospitals to provide critical care rooms to the 5-10% of the cases that will require that care. Its simple math, the more people that have it the more people that need ventilators and hospital rooms etc...Lombardy in Italy is a prime example, the same with NYC, we are fortunate that those type of situations have been minimal but that is only because of the more extreme methods put in place.....the math does not figure, faster spread equals more death than slower spread period.

Sweden's going to lose more people in their approach than they would if they had gone with stricter measures.....of that I have no doubt.

Its never been about keeping people from getting the virus its been about slowing the spread to something that allows the system to provide critical care to those who need it. It has worked the numbers overall in the US are showing the fruit of those actions IMO.
 
Please tell that to the 15 folks, 2 of whom started sneezing, who piled on the elevator on the 2nd floor up when I went in to my office from the lobby today to pick up files (yes, I am practicing law from home) ... it is a 2 way street and going forward likely a lot of folks will be going in the wrong lane ... possibly out of an I don't give a poop attitude ... regrettably ...
Yeah, I agree, that's a tough situation, no doubt. Unfortunately, there are going to be cases like this. All in all, the social distancing is working and should continue, IMO, wearing face masks, as well. We're not going to be able to stop COVID-19 no matter what we do, but we can sure slow it down, which has been the case.
 
Based on the numbers im looking at, shouldnt NC be one of the first states to open up ? 320+ deaths out of 10 million people. NC seems to have fared far better than GA.
Yes, NC has gotten through this thing pretty well so far, and in theory should be one of the earlier states to “open up”. However, it looks like some other states may be jumping the gun. IMO. To be fair, TX and TN, which are some of the states now starting to open up imminently, has fared even better than NC, though. GA, not so much...
 
Sweden's going to lose more people in their approach than they would if they had gone with stricter measures.....of that I have no doubt.

Its never been about keeping people from getting the virus its been about slowing the spread to something that allows the system to provide critical care to those who need it. It has worked the numbers overall in the US are showing the fruit of those actions IMO.

Sweden's daily per capita deaths are presently the second-lowest among the major European nations, behind only Spain - and what a turnaround the last couple of weeks have been for Spain!

1588034801571.png
 
I got data too....

Confirmed deaths (absolute)Population (in millions)Deaths per million
Belgium 7,09411.42621.08
Spain 23,19046.72496.32
Italy 26,64460.43440.9
France 22,85666.99341.2
United Kingdom 20,73266.49311.81
Netherlands 4,47517.23259.71
Ireland 1,0874.85223.96
Sweden 2,19410.18215.45
Switzerland 1,6108.52189.04
United States 53,846327.17164.58
Portugal 90310.2887.83
Denmark 4225.872.79
Germany 5,97682.9372.06
 
Sweden's going to lose more people in their approach than they would if they had gone with stricter measures.....of that I have no doubt.

You may be right, but saying you have no doubt that the “full lockdown” approach is the absolute only way to reduce overall deaths over the term of the ENTIRE pandemic (until vaccine) is presumptuous at best.

There’s no modern playbook for handling a pandemic... Spanish flu was in the 1910s... hygiene, medicine, and society have changed tremendously in 100 years. Sweden’s healthcare system hasn’t come close to being overwhelmed. Period. NYC is the most highly densely populated city in our country. It’s 25 times more densely populated than Charlotte. Why do we assume that the mitigation approach employed by NYC is the same needed in Charlotte, Raleigh, or Wilson?

I’m not intending to be combative here, genuinely just trying to play devil’s advocate and question why everyone feels like a significant lock down is the only way to combat this virus for every state/county/city. Maybe it is, but I’m just not sure and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with questioning it. As a reminder, two months ago none of us knew anything about how to handle a pandemic, but now everyone is an expert? Come on. I’ll admit I don’t know how this all plays out, but also feel anyone claiming they definitively know that one approach is absolutely the only way forward seems... well... questionable at best.
 
You may be right, but saying you have no doubt that the “full lockdown” approach is the absolute only way to reduce overall deaths over the term of the ENTIRE pandemic (until vaccine) is presumptuous at best.

There’s no modern playbook for handling a pandemic... Spanish flu was in the 1910s... hygiene, medicine, and society have changed tremendously in 100 years. Sweden’s healthcare system hasn’t come close to being overwhelmed. Period. NYC is the most highly densely populated city in our country. It’s 25 times more densely populated than Charlotte. Why do we assume that the mitigation approach employed by NYC is the same needed in Charlotte, Raleigh, or Wilson?

I’m not intending to be combative here, genuinely just trying to play devil’s advocate and question why everyone feels like a significant lock down is the only way to combat this virus for every state/county/city. Maybe it is, but I’m just not sure and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with questioning it. As a reminder, two months ago none of us knew anything about how to handle a pandemic, but now everyone is an expert? Come on. I’ll admit I don’t know how this all plays out, but also feel anyone claiming they definitively know that one approach is absolutely the only way forward seems... well... questionable at best.

Its not debatable IMO, SIP and social distancing work better than any other method.....period full stop.... and its a totally logical thought process as to why. It might not be the best economically etc but when it comes down to saving lives it is better and nothing can logically be argued to suggest that is not the case.

I got no problem with questioning anything but bring data and facts to support it.....there is tons of solid logical reasoning and science to show social distancing works better than any other method when no vaccine is available.
 
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