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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Webberweather53 said:
Again, we do not actually know how it's impacted by temperature & humidity yet. Yes, it's in the same family as those other viruses but every virus behaves differently and is in a state of perpetual mutation, thus it's premature to conclude that (this version) of the coronavirus will significantly be affected (negatively) by the kinds of changes we see in temperature & humidity over the next few months without any actual evidence to support it. Yes, a virus will be hindered at very high temps and humidity but does this particular virus begin to be adversely affected at 60, 70, 80, or 90F or 70, 80, 90, or 100% RH? Those are very important questions that have massive implications wrt impacts here and we simply do not know the answer to any of those, assuming we kind of already do without a shred evidence to substantiate it is rash. Sure, I agree that at a certain point, coronavirus spread will be hampered, but I highly doubt will be soon enough to forestall its spread into the United States given that many other countries with comparable or warmer climates than the SE US are dealing w/ an outbreak of Cov-19, which the CDC deems as highly likely at this point.

"
Q: Will warm weather stop the outbreak of COVID-19?

A: It is not yet known whether weather and temperature impact the spread of COVID-19. Some other viruses, like the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months. At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer. There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing."
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I'm sure you know my background but for others, I'm a doctorate level medical professional. I've taken undergraduate and doctorate level courses in microbiology. I do know a little about virus function and behavior, so I get what you're saying but my statements aren't premature or rash and it's interesting you're going toe-to-toe with me on this.

Yes, it's correct that we haven't had the time to specifically test COVID-19 and whether or not it's somehow resistant to high temperatures when all other viruses are susceptible, but that doesn't mean it's premature to make a generalized statement about how viruses in general behave. It's perfectly OK to make a statement about virus function in general when referring to COVID-19. The probability of COVID-19 viral structure being that much different than SARS or MERS on an order of incredible magnitude thus making it immune to higher temperatures is slim. I'll stand by this statement.

As for the bold part: The flu spreads well into the spring and even summer months, people get the Flu in June, July, August. That wasn't my point... I see probably 1 case of flu and 1 prescription for oseltamivir in the month of May. Currently, I'm getting multiple prescriptions daily. Of course it will continue to spawn cases into warmer weather, but the overall rate of spread will wane. I never said warmer weather will all of a sudden put a wall up around the USA and save us all. It's going to help. The fact that it's late feb is going to help. The fact that we have seen a relatively low fatality rate is a good thing. I don't think this is some super virus that is going to outdo the average US flu deaths over the last decade. I just don't see the reason to think otherwise and believe the hype at this point until we are told otherwise. By "hype" I mean the doom and gloom, I already said we should prepare and be ready.
 
Jon said:
I'm sure you know my background but for others, I'm a doctorate level medical professional. I've taken undergraduate and doctorate level courses in microbiology. I do know a little about virus function and behavior, so I get what you're saying but my statements aren't premature or rash and it's interesting you're going toe-to-toe with me on this.

Yes, it's correct that we haven't had the time to specifically test COVID-19 and whether or not it's somehow resistant to high temperatures when all other viruses are susceptible, but that doesn't mean it's premature to make a generalized statement about how viruses in general behave. It's perfectly OK to make a statement about virus function in general when referring to COVID-19. The probability of COVID-19 viral structure being that much different than SARS or MERS on an order of incredible magnitude thus making it immune to higher temperatures is slim. I'll stand by this statement.

As for the bold part: The flu spreads well into the spring and even summer months, people get the Flu in June, July, August. That wasn't my point... I see probably 1 case of flu and 1 prescription for oseltamivir in the month of May. Currently, I'm getting multiple prescriptions daily. Of course it will continue to spawn cases into warmer weather, but the overall rate of spread will wane. I never said warmer weather will all of a sudden put a wall up around the USA and save us all. It's going to help. The fact that it's late feb is going to help. The fact that we have seen a relatively low fatality rate is a good thing. I don't think this is some super virus that is going to outdo the average US flu deaths over the last decade. I just don't see the reason to think otherwise and believe the hype at this point until we are told otherwise. By "hype" I mean the doom and gloom, I already said we should prepare and be ready.
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It's encouraging that we haven't seen a big spread in areas that are warm right now. But that could be for a number of reasons not weather/climate related, also. There are just a lot of unknowns. What we do know, at least based on the data we have so far, are the following:

1) It's much more infectious than the flu
2) It has a higher serious complication rate than the flu
3) It has a higher CFR than the flu
4) It is not being tested for as ubiquitously as the flu
5) There are no vaccines like there are for the flu
6) Antivirals have shown limited positive results, unlike with the flu
7) There is no herd immunity like there tends to be with the flu

The coronavirus and the flu are comparable because they are both viruses. But at least with what we know today, that's pretty much where the comparisons end.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
My doctor said it’s just the flu to get vaccinated people over there didn’t got sick. He said Wilkes health department is all over it and will get people flu shots to prevent coronavirus.
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Does the flu vaccine work all the time? No! So do you think a vaccine if created will work? No!
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, I understand that. It's just quick, while everyone is scrambling to figure out a potential vaccine. Complicates things.
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Yeah, not having a vaccine may be scaring most people. What is important now is focusing on treatment and not vaccines. Vaccines are imperfect and take time to develop and take 2 weeks to work even after vaccination. Hell, people don't get flu vaccines BY CHOICE yearly and many people die from the flu every year -- no one bats an eye.

We need to streamline antiviral treatments, some of which have already been published and demonstrated to work on COVID-19 in some of the harsher areas hit in China. I have no doubt we'll be able to control this eventually, it's just a matter of when. We've already seen cases diminishing in the areas first struck by COVID-19 due to the quarantine efforts.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's encouraging that we haven't seen a big spread in areas that are warm right now. But that could be for a number of reasons not weather/climate related, also. There are just a lot of unknowns. What we do know, at least based on the data we have so far, are the following:

1) It's much more infectious than the flu
2) It has a higher serious complication rate than the flu
3) It has a higher CFR than the flu
4) It is not being tested for as ubiquitously as the flu
5) There are no vaccines like there are for the flu
6) Antivirals have shown limited positive results, unlike with the flu
7) There is no herd immunity like there tends to be with the flu

The coronavirus and the flu are comparable because they are both viruses. But at least with what we know today, that's pretty much where the comparisons end.
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The problem is that it's unknown and the unknowns surrounding the virus is what scares people. The CDC's job is to warn the American people of the possibilities. They HAD to make the statements they made yesterday soley based on those said unknowns. It doesn't mean that the wost case possible of those unknowns will end up verifying. As I stated in my first post, we should take precaution.
 
Jon said:
I'm sure you know my background but for others, I'm a doctorate level medical professional. I've taken undergraduate and doctorate level courses in microbiology. I do know a little about virus function and behavior, so I get what you're saying but my statements aren't premature or rash and it's interesting you're going toe-to-toe with me on this.

Yes, it's correct that we haven't had the time to specifically test COVID-19 and whether or not it's somehow resistant to high temperatures when all other viruses are susceptible, but that doesn't mean it's premature to make a generalized statement about how viruses in general behave. It's perfectly OK to make a statement about virus function in general when referring to COVID-19. The probability of COVID-19 viral structure being that much different than SARS or MERS on an order of incredible magnitude thus making it immune to higher temperatures is slim. I'll stand by this statement.

As for the bold part: The flu spreads well into the spring and even summer months, people get the Flu in June, July, August. That wasn't my point... I see probably 1 case of flu and 1 prescription for oseltamivir in the month of May. Currently, I'm getting multiple prescriptions daily. Of course it will continue to spawn cases into warmer weather, but the overall rate of spread will wane. I never said warmer weather will all of a sudden put a wall up around the USA and save us all. It's going to help. The fact that it's late feb is going to help. The fact that we have seen a relatively low fatality rate is a good thing. I don't think this is some super virus that is going to outdo the average US flu deaths over the last decade. I just don't see the reason to think otherwise and believe the hype at this point until we are told otherwise. By "hype" I mean the doom and gloom, I already said we should prepare and be ready.
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If you’re a medical professional, shouldn’t you already know not to immediately jump to conclusions like this without any actual evidence to back it up unless you somehow know more than literally everyone here on the topic, then enlighten me and the rest of us here about how CoV-19 responds to changes in temperature and humidity and more specifically how the seasonal changes here in the SE US will be significant enough to combat the virus when it comes calling
 
Jon said:
The problem is that it's unknown and the unknowns surrounding the virus is what scares people. The CDC's job is to warn the American people of the possibilities. They HAD to make the statements they made yesterday soley based on those said unknowns. It doesn't mean that the wost case possible of those unknowns will end up verifying. As I stated in my first post, we should take precaution.
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I agree with this 100%, which is why it baffles me that leaders all over the world are always in a reactionary mode with things like this. It always ends up leading the population to chaos, panic, and erroneous thinking. The messaging needs to be much more direct, continuous, and matter of fact, along with communication around what action the public should take, based on the information.

Anyway, there are way too many unknowns. I, for one, am not panicked about it at all. But lots of possibilities are on the table here, and swinging the pendulum wildly in the other direction (which I know you aren't), severely downplaying this, is a mistake.

Right now, as best we can tell, we have a highly contagious virus that is bad for about 20% of people, killing about 10ish% of that subset, usually the elderly or those with other illnesses. Those numbers aren't exact, but they're pretty close. This can change, but this is how it is now. The better that's understood, the better people can be advised to react.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you’re a medical professional, shouldn’t you already know not to immediately jump to conclusions like this without any actual evidence to back it up unless you somehow know more than literally everyone here on the topic, then enlighten me and the rest of us here about how CoV-19 responds to changes in temperature and humidity and more specifically how the seasonal changes here in the SE US will be significant enough to combat the virus when it comes calling
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I can speak generally about virus behavior as it relates to the seasons and not be wrong. That should be fairly understood. As I said, of course we don't know exact numbers, but some assumptions can be made for all viruses. I don't know how else to explain this. It's a fairly common belief in the medical field.

In my very first post where I made this statement, I recall saying to prepare. The problem is all of a sudden my comments about seasonal expectations are being twisted and taken out of context, as if I said something I did not.

"More specifically how the seasonal changes here in the SE US will be significant enough to combat the virus when it comes calling"

When did I say this?

I'm not going to backtrack on my general statement of virus behavior. It's in any microbiology 101 book and is accepted by experts around the globe. I don't really want to continue the back and forth, I think we can agree that a lot of unknowns of this virus are getting to people it seems at an emotional level. So at this point continuing to post on it is of no interest to me.
 
I find it hilarious that San Fran has declared a state of emergency yet they say the virus is not in America. Trump telling nation tonight it’s under control. So when it is released it’s here. He will be blamed for incompetence.
 
As long as we're on the subject of prepping, the Dept. of Homeland Security's Ready.gov website has a section devoted to pandemic preparedness:

Pandemics | Ready.gov

Learn what to do if a pandemic is declared and how to stay safe when a pandemic threatens. Prepare for Pandemic Stay Safe During Stay Safe After Associated Content A pandemic is a disease outbreak that spans several countries and affects a large number of people. Pandemics are most often caused...
www.ready.gov www.ready.gov
 
I actually read before it really became bad in China from a virologist that in most cases viruses become less deadly as they mutate. If 60 percent get this virus and 20 percent is serious that means around 30million seriously ill in the US? 3 million die? Is my math right?
Rain Cold said:
I agree with this 100%, which is why it baffles me that leaders all over the world are always in a reactionary mode with things like this. It always ends up leading the population to chaos, panic, and erroneous thinking. The messaging needs to be much more direct, continuous, and matter of fact, along with communication around what action the public should take, based on the information.

Anyway, there are way too many unknowns. I, for one, am not panicked about it at all. But lots of possibilities are on the table here, and swinging the pendulum wildly in the other direction (which I know you aren't), severely downplaying this, is a mistake.

Right now, as best we can tell, we have a highly contagious virus that is bad for about 20% of people, killing about 10ish% of that subset, usually the elderly or those with other illnesses. Those numbers aren't exact, but they're pretty close. This can change, but this is how it is now. The better that's understood, the better people can be advised to react.
Click to expand...
 
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Rain Cold said:
I agree with this 100%, which is why it baffles me that leaders all over the world are always in a reactionary mode with things like this. It always ends up leading the population to chaos, panic, and erroneous thinking. The messaging needs to be much more direct, continuous, and matter of fact, along with communication around what action the public should take, based on the information.

Anyway, there are way too many unknowns. I, for one, am not panicked about it at all. But lots of possibilities are on the table here, and swinging the pendulum wildly in the other direction (which I know you aren't), severely downplaying this, is a mistake.

Right now, as best we can tell, we have a highly contagious virus that is bad for about 20% of people, killing about 10ish% of that subset, usually the elderly or those with other illnesses. Those numbers aren't exact, but they're pretty close. This can change, but this is how it is now. The better that's understood, the better people can be advised to react.
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Great post.

This virus, while behaving differently and there are a lot of unknowns, does have similarities to other viruses...especially the ages in the mortality group. >65 and over is a GOOD thing. The minute I say that, however, someone will link an article about a young chinese doctor dying. There's always exceptions and they are often used to spread propaganda and fear. That's my overall point but no one wants to hear that. They want to hear its bad, to worry, that all your children will die. That's more believable, that's the world we live in...false and fast information at your fingertips when you're the most vulnerable.

The CDC teleconference was bad, and not in a "the virus is bad" way, but sometimes the most intellectual minds have a very, very hard time conveying important information to the public...and that CDC teleconference is Exhibit 1 in every textbook of what not to do.

I just want people to take a deep breath. I'm seeing the ramifications of panic on the front lines already. People asking for masks that are sold out everywhere, asking if we can order them. People are in a panic. It may be water cooler talk to some but if you work in the healthcare field, panic isn't good...and the CDC did nothing helpful yesterday. Absolutely nothing.
 
Matthew70 said:
I find it hilarious that San Fran has declared a state of emergency yet they say the virus is not in America. Trump telling nation tonight it’s under control. So when it is released it’s here. He will be blamed for incompetence.
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The fact that we're seeing/hearing these things means it's already here. I think I said this yesterday, but I bet within 2 weeks (maybe even a matter of days), it will pop up out of the blue in at least one major US city. My money is on somewhere in CA.
 
No way am I panicked or gloom and doom. I am a realist to always know your surroundings and definitely don’t trust the govt. Aside from all the sickness and deaths. The economic impacts could be staggering. That’s what people just ignoring don’t understand and are just naïve. Prices will increase in basic necessities and supplies. From pharmaceuticals to gas. There could and most likely be shortages. What happens when that family member has pneumonia and there is no antibiotics to fight it? A simple hurricane causes gas shortages to a smaller area. This is over a much larger area. How can anyone think there will no be complications?
 
Jon said:
I can speak generally about virus behavior as it relates to the seasons and not be wrong. That should be fairly understood. As I said, of course we don't know exact numbers, but some assumptions can be made for all viruses. I don't know how else to explain this. It's a fairly common belief in the medical field.

In my very first post where I made this statement, I recall saying to prepare. The problem is all of a sudden my comments about seasonal expectations are being twisted and taken out of context, as if I said something I did not.

"More specifically how the seasonal changes here in the SE US will be significant enough to combat the virus when it comes calling"

When did I say this?

I'm not going to backtrack on my general statement of virus behavior. It's in any microbiology 101 book and is accepted by experts around the globe. I don't really want to continue the back and forth, I think we can agree that a lot of unknowns of this virus are getting to people it seems at an emotional level. So at this point continuing to post on it is of no interest to me.
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You're making a lot of somewhat far-fetched assumptions here and broad brushing the response of the CoV-19 to its external environment without actually definitively knowing anything about how this particular virus responds to a given amount of temperature and humidity variability. Everyone agrees that the virus will be dampened by high heat & humidity. Previously stating this is the case doesn't actually answer the question on if the increasingly warmer weather in the SE US will "definitely help", and even that is definitely a stretch given the following:

1) We're coming off one of the warmest winters on record here. If we move into a cooler than normal spring or even average spring which isn't likely but reasonably probable, the impact seasonal warming in the spring against a very warm winter will have on the virus will be lower than "normal", or potentially even a non-factor in an extreme cases depending on the timing of Cov-19's arrival and the observed spring temperatures.

2) You also have to know when the virus is going to reach the CONUS and begin infecting people en masse, and I'm certain absolutely no one knows when that'll happen. If that occurs in March, April, or May actually matters a lot because background temperatures and humidity change appreciably here over the course of the spring and even just one of these months individually. It's important to also keep in mind that data from the CDC and other nations is 2+ weeks old due to the CoV-19's incubation period and lags wrt test results for the virus

3) Each virus is different, sure it's similar to "x" viruses but that does not mean it's going to respond to environmental conditions in exactly the same way as SARS, MERS, & even influenza, etc.
 
Heelyes said:
I made a mess of that last post. Can someone fix it or delete it?
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I think I fixed it. Take a look and let me know.

When you start typing too fast before the quote that you're quoting loads, part of your sentence that you just typed will be outside the quote and the rest of it will get put inside the quote, once it loads. It's a little glitch.
 
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