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Misc Cold Season Complaining

1300m said:
Sure that will play a part later on, but we already have a stout -NAO developing for the 1/6 system. If it can remain suppressed there might be just enough cold to get the job done.
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Wouldn't that system not cutting and getting as wound up in a good place kind of mess things up down the line?
 
Shawn said:
Wouldn't that system not cutting and getting as wound up in a good place kind of mess things up down the line?
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IMO, no. That's one of the beauties of a locked in, -NAO is that it (the trapped TPV) basically is going to continue to feed on anything that wraps into it and continue to have energy rotating around it. If a strong piece rotates around in a favorable time, especially with a tall western ridge like is currently being modeled, that's when the big dog, potential phased Miller A bombs can happen. 18z GFS almost was a grand slam without the 1/6 system getting wound up.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh72-240 (1).gif
 
1300m said:
IMO, no. That's one of the beauties of a locked in, -NAO is that it (the trapped TPV) basically is going to continue to feed on anything that wraps into it and continue to have energy rotating around it. If a strong piece rotates around in a favorable time, especially with a tall western ridge like is currently being modeled, that's when the big dog, potential phased Miller A bombs can happen. 18z GFS almost was a grand slam without the 1/6 system getting wound up.

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Yeah, it's just not a simple if/then scenario this time. There is a lot going on here -- a very complex picture. Fortunately, as you stated, a strong, favorably placed block widens our window and keeps us from having to have a deep snow pack to our north or having to have a preceding system get wound up in order to establish something. There's more room to navigate.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Need a gfs south shift like i need air
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I don't think the south shifts are over ....... just my opinion, based on past experiences when strong high latitude blocking gets involved. We all have seen that movie before. Question is ..... how much more will it shift? Look for the track to settle down somewhat at about 72 hours out. Then look for only subtle changes. That being said, I have seen the short-range high-resolution models make some big swings in times past. Bottom line .... you got to like where we are right now, if you are a winter weather fan.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I don't think the south shifts are over ....... just my opinion, based on past experiences when strong high latitude blocking gets involved. We all have seen that movie before. Question is ..... how much more will it shift? Look for the track to settle down somewhat at about 72 hours out. Then look for only subtle changes. That being said, I have seen the short-range high-resolution models make some big swings in times past. Bottom line .... you got to like where we are right now, if you are a winter weather fan.
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I don't either and someone had said here that the last storm tracked more south 🤔

Plus well if the Arctic air is flooding in
 
It's sad really... The GFS has more snow here than the entire winter last year 🤣 and there's no impressive snow on it
 
Whatever winter weather we get or extended cold we get we have already paid the price for it with our previous winters. So maybe this year AND the next few will work out for most of us
 
I never would of thought moving from south Alabama to north Alabama near the tennessee state line the chances for me seeing snow imby would be this tough especially with seeing the models consistently showing hits south of me ugh don’t pay this post any attention i’m just stressed after seeing no snow in 4 years
 
Snowlover34 said:
I never would of thought moving from south Alabama to north Alabama near the tennessee state line the chances for me seeing snow imby would be this tough especially with seeing the models consistently showing hits south of me ugh
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Yep moved from talladega to Florence 13 years ago ..granted I have gotten snow more often than they but it has snowed there plenty of times when it didn’t here
 
BullCityWx said:
I miss when I could look at the MOS snowfall number and if it was an 8, you knew you were gonna get killed
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I won the 08-09 WxChallenge at NCSU my junior year prior to taking synoptics (first student ever to beat our synoptics professor for the year at the time) and one of my secret weapons was NGM MOS for the highs (especially in the colder climates).
 
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