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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Brent said:
I keep telling myself the GFS sucks but it's gotten way too consistent with a snow hole over me which would be about perfect for the last 3 years here 😜
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You are right...the GFS sucks. It's the Dallas Cowboys of the weather models. Creates a lot of hype but always falls flat.
 
Apparently the 6z GFS suite is the one that is going to tease the system I have the most interest in panning out...but it's already too warm in this case for me.

I saw some interesting slides on the GEFS, but honestly mostly whiffs... although whiffs to the south mainly, which is probably fine.
 
KyloG said:
You are right...the GFS sucks. It's the Dallas Cowboys of the weather models. Creates a lot of hype but always falls flat.
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I rem the other day when the EPS had the highest mean ever and everyone was excited bc it is the best model.

Sum: Doesn't matter what any model is showing past D7. At all, other than the general pattern.
 
I see the GFS is back on board for the 1/11-1/12 storm.

Choo Choo Reaction GIF by IFC
 
KyloG said:
More day 10+ fantasy snows modeled...bummer we lost the EPS. It had a nice signal for the 10th and now poof...gone. Maybe Feb we can get a flake or two...or maybe it hits 70F.

View attachment 158002
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I have to admit, seeing the EPS and the EURO suite now tuck the wave in the SW was killer. Big letdown for me on overnight runs, after an encouraging GEFS run. I want to say the EURO's playing into its bias but that's just weenieism. It's an option that may come to pass as the ridge just has that orientation that it wants to lean over and tuck. I wish it was the other way around and the GEFS was dry.

I don't know. Great cold pattern, we'll see if we can get a storm to form that's not squashed to oblivion.
 
We also have another storm showing up way out around 1/16. Lots of potential for sure. Just have to see if we have the team to get a win.
 
First in with : the shortwave hasn’t even been sampled yet!
Big run to run shifts possible! 1735655992916.png
 
1300m said:
I really don't understand where this is coming from. I have NEVER said that anything after 1/3 - 1/6 wasn't favorable. I just said 1/3 to 1/6 was the first window to watch. Everything with webber has to turn into a personal battle. I challenge anyone to go back and find a post where I've not said the period AFTER 1/3 to 1/6 is actually more favorable. A receding -NAO is when RDU usually scores, that doesn't mean you don't watch every chance.

Crap like this makes me really wonder why I even bother posting on here.
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Greatly appreciate your insights. I think a lot of people (in general) see a good, educated debate—one of the best things about having meteorologists on this forum—and decide that it must mean one person believes one thing is definitely going to happen while another believes it’s definitely not going to happen. No ifs, ands, buts, or god forbid, nuance! It doesn’t matter how many qualifiers you put in front of it or how much that is not actually the case.

I think a lot of people still cling to this idea that they want a meteorologist to “make a call and stick to their guns.” (Which is the same in LOTS of sciences, including social sciences!) I’m not saying many or any people are doing that here, but I think people take that framing and distill complex discussion into a tit for tat war of wills. The discussion between you and Webb isn’t a daggum cat fight, it’s a thoughtful debate on a short-ish-form platform .

I’m also probably way over-analyzing behavior on an internet forum, but point is, I greatly appreciate yours and all the other meteorologists on this board’s discussion. It brings so much real value, and I’m sorry that how we frame things or react to discussion may dissuade more intelligent, educated voices from contributing to platforms like this.

(This is also not to throw shade at anyone for reacting or responding in a certain way).
 
TarHeelSnow said:
Greatly appreciate your insights. I think a lot of people (in general) see a good, educated debate—one of the best things about having meteorologists on this forum—and decide that it must mean one person believes one thing is definitely going to happen while another believes it’s definitely not going to happen. No ifs, ands, buts, or god forbid, nuance! It doesn’t matter how many qualifiers you put in front of it or how much that is not actually the case.

I think a lot of people still cling to this idea that they want a meteorologist to “make a call and stick to their guns.” (Which is the same in LOTS of sciences, including social sciences!) I’m not saying many or any people are doing that here, but I think people take that framing and distill complex discussion into a tit for tat war of wills. The discussion between you and Webb isn’t a daggum cat fight, it’s a thoughtful debate on a short-ish-form platform .

I’m also probably way over-analyzing behavior on an internet forum, but point is, I greatly appreciate yours and all the other meteorologists on this board’s discussion. It brings so much real value, and I’m sorry that how we frame things or react to discussion may dissuade more intelligent, educated voices from contributing to platforms like this.

(This is also not to throw shade at anyone for reacting or responding in a certain way).
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This WHY & HOW, *Science* came about, with, hypothesis, testing & replication.. Of course,,, Debate..

Each & every one of ya'll Mets, is what make this Board great..
To have Actual "debates", (Not cat fights)..

take this as a plus @1300m
 
coldfront22 said:
Brad is in the much to about nothing mentality on this upcoming pattern. He is a good one in reality most of the time. . Let’s hope we see his snow meter before January is done. Agree a little less cold may help the number 2 storm.
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brad is no better than a roulette player sitting at the table going all in on a red streak. It works and it makes you look smart until it bankrupts you in one spin
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
brad is no better than a roulette player sitting at the table going all in on a red streak. It works and it makes you look smart until it bankrupts you in one spin
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It's not a bad approach to a certain extent I guess. If 98% of the roulette wheel is red, I am betting red every time until I lose all of my chips.
 
I need people to post banter and off-topic crap in here and not the main thread people are watching for model runs.

I'm not in the mood to run a daycare, you've been warned.
 
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