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Misc Cold Season Complaining

The can kicking involves energy that was initially forecast to cause a large Winter storm (post hr 240) to cutting it off and leaving it to rot until post 300 hours now.

I define that as a can kicking.
 
Shawn said:
The can kicking involves energy that was initially forecast to cause a large Winter storm (post hr 240) to cutting it off and leaving it to rot until post 300 hours now.

I define that as a can kicking.
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No, that would be you locking into a fantasy run every time you see it. Which I imagine (at least I hope) you aren't.

There was never a set storm after this weekends storm, there is only a set window of time (which is large I would add) to watch for a storm system with cold already in place. That timeframe has always been there. And the storm you are referring to is still there, it's just suppressed which the old saying around here is "That's a good thing at this range". Can kicking doesn't apply here.
 
Mitch West said:
No, that would be you locking into a fantasy run every time you see it. Which I imagine (at least I hope) you aren't.

There was never a set storm after this weekends storm, there is only a set window of time (which is large I would add) to watch for a storm system with cold already in place. That timeframe has always been there. And the storm you are referring to is still there, it's just suppressed which the old saying around here is "That's a good thing at this range". Can kicking doesn't apply here.
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Well the be fair there was better opportunity snow in the 5th-9th range which has greatly diminished. We are now looking at 11th-13th which was always more or less there as well and hopefully will still be there by this weekend.
 
CaryWx said:
Well the be fair there was better opportunity snow in the 5th-9th range which has greatly diminished. We are now looking at 11th-13th which was always more or less there as well and hopefully will still be there by this weekend.
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The 5th-7th was never a great opportunity, it was an opportunity for some on here but not the storm that was going to work out for the majority of us.
 
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weatherfide said:
The period we've all really been watching is 1-8 to 1-15. If it doesn't happen in that week, well, it's probably just not going to happen.
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Something tells me disappointment is coming sooner than later outside NC, TN, and VA.

My area needs an Arctic front already in place with a storm system tracking across North Central FL and strengthening across and off the SC coast.

The only way I'm seeing that is during the pattern relax, that will inevitably come.
 
Mitch West said:
No, that would be you locking into a fantasy run every time you see it. Which I imagine (at least I hope) you aren't.

There was never a set storm after this weekends storm, there is only a set window of time (which is large I would add) to watch for a storm system with cold already in place. That timeframe has always been there. And the storm you are referring to is still there, it's just suppressed which the old saying around here is "That's a good thing at this range". Can kicking doesn't apply here.
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You have to admit though 8 times out of 10 the storms do not come back. And haven’t for a long time. No matter how you slice it it’s not a good look to have everything backing off of the snow totals and fantasy runs. Could they come back and we get a storm a few days out? Sure. Is it likely even in a pattern like this. Well let’s just say I’ll believe it when I see it. And it’s been years since I have.
That being said the mountains are absolutely going to get snow in this pattern so let’s get that out in the open I’m not referring to them.
 
Well the 12z CFS now cuts the low up to the lakes (like GFS) for the Jan 6th storm. It's not a great model but it's now another that agrees with that solution.
 
Stevo24 said:
You have to admit though 8 times out of 10 the storms do not come back. And haven’t for a long time. No matter how you slice it it’s not a good look to have everything backing off of the snow totals and fantasy runs. Could they come back and we get a storm a few days out? Sure. Is it likely even in a pattern like this. Well let’s just say I’ll believe it when I see it. And it’s been years since I have.
That being said the mountains are absolutely going to get snow in this pattern so let’s get that out in the open I’m not referring to them.
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This is mostly because of the pattern. It's why many of us are focused on the window of opportunity and not specific systems. The only specific system worth attending to is the January 6ish one. There is not, nor has there been any specific threat beyond that.

Sure the ensembles had big hits and snow means. And now they're showing fewer hits and snow means. That's normal stuff. It's what happens when you have 300 model runs out to 15 days, and it doesn't indicate anything about threats that may appear in the medium range.

Watch what is happening with the overall pattern and see how that is trending. If it starts to trend poorly, then we may have a problem.
 
If it gets as cold as some of these models are suggesting, I may turn off and run the water out of my pipes for a few days. Hey it'll be fun, we can all pee and poop outside like nature intended. 🤪💩💩💩
 
Shawn said:
The can kicking involves energy that was initially forecast to cause a large Winter storm (post hr 240) to cutting it off and leaving it to rot until post 300 hours now.

I define that as a can kicking.
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There are never any cans to kick if you never look past 180ish hours, unless it’s an ensemble.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is mostly because of the pattern. It's why many of us are focused on the window of opportunity and not specific systems. The only specific system worth attending to is the January 6ish one. There is not, nor has there been any specific threat beyond that.

Sure the ensembles had big hits and snow means. And now they're showing fewer hits and snow means. That's normal stuff. It's what happens when you have 300 model runs out to 15 days, and it doesn't indicate anything about threats that may appear in the medium range.

Watch what is happening with the overall pattern and see how that is trending. If it starts to trend poorly, then we may have a problem.
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I agree but those wicked cold projections are in the longer ranges as well. Not in the medium. Looks somewhat moderated there, but I may be incorrect
 
GoDuke said:
There are never any cans to kick if you never look past 180ish hours, unless it’s an ensemble.
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That's the thing, I'm not sure I've seen a real threat be identified clearly over a week's time other than maybe 15 years ago. They all seem to come into focus around 5 days when they're legit, because something starts trending in the right direction. It's been a long time, but that's what I remember.

If we can succeed with cold frigid air for stretch, and the trough isn't too far east, I bet something sneaks up on us that we haven't really even seen yet.
 
SnowNiner said:
That's the thing, I'm not sure I've seen a real threat be identified clearly over a week's time other than maybe 15 years ago. They all seem to come into focus around 5 days when they're legit, because something starts trending in the right direction. It's been a long time, but that's what I remember.

If we can succeed with cold frigid air for stretch, and the trough isn't too far east, I bet something sneaks up on us that we haven't really even seen yet.
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Are you trying to tell me that our weather observation network isn't perfect, so we can't see all of the energy floating around until it's closer to an event?

NO. I DON'T BELIEVE YOU. THE MODELS MUST HAVE THE EXACT STORM AT LEAST 10 DAYS OUT JUST LIKE FEBRUARY OF 2010 OR IT CAN'T HAPPEN!
 
Shawn said:
Are you trying to tell me that our weather observation network isn't perfect, so we can't see all of the energy floating around until it's closer to an event?

NO. I DON'T BELIEVE YOU. THE MODELS MUST HAVE THE EXACT STORM AT LEAST 10 DAYS OUT JUST LIKE FEBRUARY OF 2010 OR IT CAN'T HAPPEN!
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Somehow, in-person, this girl didn't look like she did on the interwebs.
 
Steve Harvey Reaction GIF
 
Woah now guys as you all know I’m the #5 Meteorologist on here and I’m stepping in to say let’s all relax take our L for this winter and move on.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No can kicking from what I can see over here. I didn't really like the vibes I was seeing w/ the first week of the month overall.
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Historically the 2nd week of January has been the best per climo around here anyway to score. January 2011 was a good example of that.
 
Guys, stop replying about the argument.

And just a reminder, in anticipation of what just occurred, we just posted rules the other day about escalating arguments in the open forum.

You can argue via PM as much as you like.

And also, we're not going to use reactions as a method of provoking. If that is happening, we will turn them off for certain posters.

Just ignore someone if you don't agree with them or politely debate them. That seems like a reasonable and proper approach to me.
 
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