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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Webberweather53 said:
Notice how well the first week where we are getting almost purely a jet extension (previous post), actually fits with the jet extension composite (top row). (It’s a +PNA pattern).

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It’s not really until we get close to and beyond Christmas when we start to approach the adjacent poleward shift quadrant that the warmth really overspreads North America.

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Poleward shift in the pacific jet coupled with an extension is usually how we get a big torch over N America. A jet extension on its own actually favors colder temps in the eastern US and is the kind of pattern we’ve seen most of Dec so far.

I just want to make the distinction here clear because there’s a huge difference in sensible impacts between a jet extension on its own and a poleward shift in the jet on its own. I think the jet extension (while accurate in this case) takes a little too much of the blame when these kind of patterns show up & most folks (including S2S forecasters) don’t pay enough attention to the latitude of the jet, which actually matters more in regulating the EPO. It usually takes more than a pacific jet extension by itself to get these kind of warm anomalies.

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Very good, simplified, explanation. Thanks!
 
What you really want to see is blue colors over Alaska. That coupled with a frigid Siberia and deep blue hues up and down western seaboard of North America. If you can get all of these things to come together just right you can then delete any weather model subscription you may have and kiss this winter szn goodbye
 
Idk about everyone else but I think it’s exciting to see just how long my own backyard can go with no snow. Will it go to 4 years? Five? Even 10? The ceiling is so high.
 
griteater said:
I’m getting concerned with these thread titles. Dud for December and now A/C for January

If the GEFS Ext is correct, we party like it’s 1999. If the CFS and Euro Weeklies are correct, it’s over soon after it starts

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Let's not kid ourselves, we knew that IF it even got to those phases it would race through before the pattern even has a chance to flip. At this point hope the CFS is wrong but fully expect it to be right.
 
SnowNiner said:
With all the sarcastic double reverse oofs, whifs, and golf, I can't tell what's really happening. Like trying to find the good guys in mission impossible movies, lol.
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Cold through christmas, warm up after how warm is tbd eps backed highs down about 4-5 degrees at 12z vs 0z last night, jet is retracting, most means have some degree of troughing in the east by 2 weeks, cold is somewhere in Mongolia so week 1 of Jan may look good on paper but not be overly cold, chance that we stack up a couple of cutters during this period at this time too, that's OK since they may help flex a temporary nao but should also help drag the cold in as the tpv relocates back into the Hudson bay region, if we are lucky we have probably 25 days or so to cash in but chances are that window is shorter to 15 to 20, SER starts to reapear in late January, most of Feb is probably not great unless we can do something like 2013. Think that covers it today
 
SD said:
Cold through christmas, warm up after how warm is tbd eps backed highs down about 4-5 degrees at 12z vs 0z last night, jet is retracting, most means have some degree of troughing in the east by 2 weeks, cold is somewhere in Mongolia so week 1 of Jan may look good on paper but not be overly cold, chance that we stack up a couple of cutters during this period at this time too, that's OK since they may help flex a temporary nao but should also help drag the cold in as the tpv relocates back into the Hudson bay region, if we are lucky we have probably 25 days or so to cash in but chances are that window is shorter to 15 to 20, SER starts to reapear in late January, most of Feb is probably not great unless we can do something like 2013. Think that covers it today
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If January actually produces I would keep the naming scheme going for February and name it Failbruary or something similar.
 
SD said:
Cold through christmas, warm up after how warm is tbd eps backed highs down about 4-5 degrees at 12z vs 0z last night, jet is retracting, most means have some degree of troughing in the east by 2 weeks, cold is somewhere in Mongolia so week 1 of Jan may look good on paper but not be overly cold, chance that we stack up a couple of cutters during this period at this time too, that's OK since they may help flex a temporary nao but should also help drag the cold in as the tpv relocates back into the Hudson bay region, if we are lucky we have probably 25 days or so to cash in but chances are that window is shorter to 15 to 20, SER starts to reapear in late January, most of Feb is probably not great unless we can do something like 2013. Think that covers it today
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You are the greatest forecaster ever! All hail Shane
 
LukeBarrette said:
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Studying for my synoptic final on tuesday. I really don’t need to be studying because I have a 97, but it’s my favorite class ever so I’m gonna ace it. I wish there was a way y’all could take this class it seriously is the best thing ever.
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Not to brag but i’m gonna brag because I called it
 
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