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Misc Cold Season Complaining

What's funny and not funny, is models fooled the NWS again too. Couldn't believe Rah had snow in my forecast already this far out.
 
I can’t believe we’ve lost February again. It really isn’t a winter month anymore. Us in the SE have really been limited to just a couple weeks of winter now.
 
Pass on an early spring btw, I learned the hard way that the air system in my car can't regulate itself anymore.

It might be an easy fix, or the car might have to go away before summer for real.

I do still think that we're going to see plenty of days in which nobody wants in March btw. CAD when it's useless as it just makes a 70 degree day a day where it barely gets into the upper 50's.
 
February is going to February. It really is a spring month now.

Strat split = nothing = unicorn for the east. I did think that phase 8 would do work, but so far it's meaningless in February. I'll give it another week, but if mid month I still see a SE ridge, I'm calling it a winter. And I don't want to hear the March bologna.

Sorry, just venting another February let down, 2 years in a row.

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It’s time to put this winter to bed at least we did get winter weather in the southeast and deep south so i guess that’s ok. overall winter grade C
 
Final Winter Grade - C

Longest stretch of BN temps in recent memory, didn't get even an inch of snow to show for it.

Here's to several months of allergies, bugs, not being able to do anything outside without sweating and uncomfortable sleep lol
 
shoot me now


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Pilotwx said:
All models are now in line , no winter storms this week . Snow to sleet to FZ to just cold rain, next it will be 60’s and T’storms. Please take this pinned thread down, it jinxed us.🥶🥵
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I used to feel rather strongly about this myself. Got myself banned on another board (which I'm sure more than a few remember) for getting in an all out verbal (written?) war about it once 😇. But I understand now it's more of a board management issue than a calling our shot thing. If all the discussion in the monthly thread is about one specific time period, no one can talk about the broader monthly patterns without it getting completely and totally buried. And now all the moaning and gnashing of teeth from the apparent rug pull would be sullying up the discussion in the February thread this morning.
 
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1300m said:
I used to feel rather strongly about this myself. Got myself banned on another board (which I'm sure more than a few remember) for getting in an all out verbal war about it once 😇. But I understand now it's more of a board management issue than a calling our shot thing. If all the discussion in the monthly thread is about one specific time period, no one can talk about the broader monthly patterns without it getting completely and totally buried. And now all the moaning and gnashing of teeth from the apparent rug pull would be sullying up the discussion in the February thread this morning.
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Plus, it's much easier to find these potential events that don't pan out if they are documented into dedicated threads. Also, there will be an extra day or two of model runs to reflect on for events that do happen.
 
1300m said:
I used to feel rather strongly about this myself. Got myself banned on another board (which I'm sure more than a few remember) for getting in an all out verbal war about it once 😇. But I understand now it's more of a board management issue than a calling our shot thing. If all the discussion in the monthly thread is about one specific time period, no one can talk about the broader monthly patterns without it getting completely and totally buried. And now all the moaning and gnashing of teeth from the apparent rug pull would be sullying up the discussion in the February thread this morning.
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This is really it.
 
1300m said:
Well I've worked with many of them and presented/trained some of them on winter weather global patterns (NAO/PNA etc.) so I have a pretty good idea of who knows what. Take it for what you will. Badgett / Locklear / Blaes / Petro / Strickler are the ones you want to follow IMO.
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I don't know those guys, but when I was a kid the guys who wrote words like "trof", "northern branch" and "bufkit" seemed to always be better. 😂

Bring back Visual Basic 6, we don't need these CAM models etc.
 
1300m said:
I don't want to air too many personal stories (I've got some that would absolutely be shocking to people) but one of NWS RAHs best, Phil Badgett, relies heavily on just 500 mb heights and slp. Others are using dynamic tropopause and all sorts of fancy AWIPS features and at least one would get so frustrated that Badgett produces many of the most accurate forecasts with the most basic analyses (to them).

There is so much power in understanding the basic principles of the QG Omega equation and not relying so heavily on NWP output but some at NWS RAH are guilty of relying to heavily on models IMO. I will also say that most on this forum look at way more NWP output than NWS RAH does for a specific event. Many there didn't even look at the CMC / RGEM and most relied quite extensively on the basic GFS / ECMWF combo.
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I'm horrible at forecasting, but I was never ever impressed with 500mb for this event and I really wish there were better 500mb maps for the AIFS so people could have seen there was nothing to actually stop the ridge from ruining pytypes at best case scenario (zr, sleet fringe job)
 
packfan98 said:
Plus, it's much easier to find these potential events that don't pan out if they are documented into dedicated threads. Also, there will be an extra day or two of model runs to reflect on for events that do happen.
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Also declaring a potential threat is over for everyone 6 days out is as foolish as thinking a 10 day threat will verify.
 
Well, as bad as it can be forecasting with the models in the east, it’s got nothing on forecasting for the west. For the week that I was in Tahoe (heading back home tonight). The Euro and GFS has multiple runs a day showing over 2 feet of snow (even close to lake level 6,200 feet or so). The short term models (ie 3KM NAM and HRRR) said nah, freezing level will be around ~7,000 to 8,000 feet. This is for 2 different systems. In the end got 1” of snow. Ya you read that right. Frustrating to say the least.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, as bad as it can be forecasting with the models in the east, it’s got nothing on forecasting for the west. For the week that I was in Tahoe (heading back home tonight). The Euro and GFS has multiple runs a day showing over 2 feet of snow (even close to lake level 6,200 feet or so). The short term models (ie 3KM NAM and HRRR) said nah, freezing level will be around ~7,000 to 8,000 feet. This is for 2 different systems. In the end got 1” of snow. Ya you read that right. Frustrating to say the least.
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Dang man, that's awful luck. lol.

When I was out there a few years back it looked like we were gonna get a couple inches overnight and I woke up to 18 inches of fresh powder.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, as bad as it can be forecasting with the models in the east, it’s got nothing on forecasting for the west. For the week that I was in Tahoe (heading back home tonight). The Euro and GFS has multiple runs a day showing over 2 feet of snow (even close to lake level 6,200 feet or so). The short term models (ie 3KM NAM and HRRR) said nah, freezing level will be around ~7,000 to 8,000 feet. This is for 2 different systems. In the end got 1” of snow. Ya you read that right. Frustrating to say the least.
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Brother that sucks... Sorry to hear that man
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
yeah, was supposed to have a high of 53 today, changed to 59. It's 65 outside.
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None of these ppl know anything anymore. Get rid of all these models and go back to using a pencil and pressure maps and sticking a windsock on top of your building and youd prolly be more accurate. I mean this with all do respect mets and Sports Handicappers are literally the same field just different subjects. Compile mounds of data, compare with history, forecast an outcome. Obviously one is more scientific and neither is "Luck" idc what ppl say Handicapping is a skill
 
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