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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Iceagewhereartthou said:
This is likely overdone; even the GEFS has way cooler temps for that entire week; pretty much mid 50s throughout.

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Euro has a similar look for that time stamp but a front is passing through so western areas aren't as war. Then the front passes through on the Euro and the rest of the week is much cooler than on the GFS as the front never passes on it.

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You just watch and see if it don't hit 70 around here first week of FEB.
 
Twister said:
You just watch and see if it don't hit 70 around here first week of FEB.
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I'm not saying it won't, it may very well. Just pointing out that other models are not showing as warm; and I personally wouldn't go all in on a 10+ day gfs op run.

Edit: There's already a noticeable change from the 6z gfs to the 12z. The 6z had the ridge in place from the 3rd through the end of the run; the 12z brings the front through on the 7th. Long ways out; who knows.
 
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Iceagewhereartthou said:
I'm not saying it won't, it may very well. Just pointing out that other models are not showing as warm; and I personally wouldn't go all in on a 10+ day gfs op run.
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Models underdo those sunny warm days, if the GFS shows 55 and sunny with light winds bet you hit 60-63. I’m interested in next wedensday, forecast has like 63, gfs euro sitting at 58, but ai says 65. Wonder if it handles these sunny warm days better
 
I’m going to cherish these above normal temps the next couple of weeks because I definitely think we make another go at snow and cold starting the middle of February.

I’ve gotten so much more restful sleep this week without watching the models. Been nice but I’d like to do it one more time.
 
With all the cold we had in Dec and Jan it's going to be  very disappointing if I end up with only 1.5 in of slop for the winter. That's why I always hate missing out on the opportunities we get; there may not be other ones.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
With all the cold we had in Dec and Jan it's going to be  very disappointing if I end up with only 1.5 in of slop for the winter. That's why I always hate missing out on the opportunities we get; there may not be other ones.
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You'll be ok, It's not the end of the world
 
I know some don’t want to hear it, but until proven otherwise winter is over for most of us outside of the mountains. And I mean that as it pertains to winter weather. I’m sure there will be some cold spells. But I’d be willing to bet we don’t even see anymore fantasy snows on the Euro or GFS from here on out.
 
Stevo24 said:
I know some don’t want to hear it, but until proven otherwise winter is over for most of us outside of the mountains. And I mean that as it pertains to winter weather. I’m sure there will be some cold spells. But I’d be willing to bet we don’t even see anymore fantasy snows on the Euro or GFS from here on out.
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I hope it is Over, Spring can't get here fast enough. As I've said before if I wanted winter weather like most on here, I'd move up north.
 
Again, what is the scientific reasoning behind these no more winter weather forecast spoken in literals?

I do NOT want to see these people hyping up or even talking about anything that potentially comes up this season. I want you to stand by your forecast and not act bipolar. Thanks.
 
Shawn said:
Again, what is the scientific reasoning behind these no more winter weather forecast spoken in literals?

I do NOT want to see these people hyping up or even talking about anything that potentially comes up this season. I want you to stand by your forecast and not act bipolar. Thanks.
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Saying winter is over in January unless proven otherwise is one of the wildest things I’ve ever read on here. If you’re going to cancel winter two months early, the burden of evidence is on you, not the other way around!
 
superjames1992 said:
Saying winter is over in January unless proven otherwise is one of the wildest things I’ve ever read on here. If you’re going to cancel winter two months early, the burden of evidence is on you, not the other way around!
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Imby, our biggest snows came after temperatures in the 70s in February.. even 1973.
 
Shawn said:
Imby, our biggest snows came after temperatures in the 70s in February.. even 1973.
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The problem is all the examples provided are many years ago. Things don’t work like they used to. Will we eventually get another big snow in February? Sure. March? I’m doubtful. Either way the way things have been going it’s much more likely that winter storms are over for most of us this winter.
 
Stevo24 said:
The problem is all the examples provided are many years ago. Things don’t work like they used to. Will we eventually get another big snow in February? Sure. March? I’m doubtful. Either way the way things have been going it’s much more likely that winter storms are over for most of us this winter.
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Things just worked like they used to back in the 1890’s along the gulf. Better, even. Things can still work like they used to.
 
Stevo24 said:
The problem is all the examples provided are many years ago. Things don’t work like they used to. Will we eventually get another big snow in February? Sure. March? I’m doubtful. Either way the way things have been going it’s much more likely that winter storms are over for most of us this winter.
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Maybe but we can't know that. Things may not work they way the used to but just last week the gulf coast got one of their all time biggest snows with FL more than doubling their all time biggest. There's been big cold outbreaks and record snowfalls the past few years, not just in the US but Asia and Europe too. What we have seen is that the models are pretty bad at forecasting more than about 7-10 days out, even for pattern recognition. You may well be right but you may be wrong too. We'll just have to see.
 
Stevo24 said:
The problem is all the examples provided are many years ago. Things don’t work like they used to. Will we eventually get another big snow in February? Sure. March? I’m doubtful. Either way the way things have been going it’s much more likely that winter storms are over for most of us this winter.
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February 2020. NC torched all February, then we got a decent winter storm on February 20th. I know that’d not quite YBY, but still.

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Stevo24 said:
The problem is all the examples provided are many years ago. Things don’t work like they used to. Will we eventually get another big snow in February? Sure. March? I’m doubtful. Either way the way things have been going it’s much more likely that winter storms are over for most of us this winter.
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whether that is true or not, New Orleans just got more snow than I've ever seen in an Atlanta snowstorm. So it should be abundantly clear that weather can always deliver an unexpected curveball. That's why we're here. We live for the non-zero chances.

If you got some well researched climatology, analogs, model data, etc. to back up "winter storms are over for most of us this winter", great! Otherwise, it's just a broad generalization that many of us already feel in our guts too, but we don't say the OBVIOUS thing. Cuz it's no fun to read it. And we don't need to be reminded.
 
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