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Misc Cold Season Complaining

I see tons of folks saying "like it used to". Depending on when they were born and how much snow they got in their childhood or around other life experiences, it's going to impact their memory around it. And of course older folks say this stuff and younger folks just latch onto it (confirmation bias) and take it at face value.

Unless you've looked at actual climate history and can back it up, just stop with the "like it used to". It seems clear climate change has some impact, but it's still too difficult to know how exactly. Extremes has always been mentioned as a possibility. Not just broad "expect warmer winters".
 
Shawn said:
Again, what is the scientific reasoning behind these no more winter weather forecast spoken in literals?

I do NOT want to see these people hyping up or even talking about anything that potentially comes up this season. I want you to stand by your forecast and not act bipolar. Thanks.
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Some of these folks assume "January thaw" was just a term coined a few years ago. I have heard the phrase all my life. It happens so frequently, there is a term married to that period during January. All of these proclamations of warmth until spring are simply passive aggressive trolling.
 
Maybe we should have kept brick around. Seems like a large portion here and he fit right in together, like peas in a pod.

I'm keeping track this time, to literally ignore anything they say in any upcoming storm thread, if there is one.
 
atlwx said:
I see tons of folks saying "like it used to". Depending on when they were born and how much snow they got in their childhood or around other life experiences, it's going to impact their memory around it. And of course older folks say this stuff and younger folks just latch onto it (confirmation bias) and take it at face value.

Unless you've looked at actual climate history and can back it up, just stop with the "like it used to". It seems clear climate change has some impact, but it's still too difficult to know how exactly. Extremes has always been mentioned as a possibility. Not just broad "expect warmer winters".
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There is actually plenty of data for GSP. I've done the research trust me. Double digit years used to occur here on average every 5 years. Even during the 30s 40s and 50s double digit years were very common even though there were some bad stretches in there. Now it's been 32 years since the last double digit season. CLT and RDU are doing better but I think each one of those are pushing 20 years now. That has never happened in any stretch dating back as far as records go. Now we can argue 150 years of climate data is nothing and that's fine. Maybe this has happened before. But we can't know. All we can know is what's recorded and snowfall averages are plummeting along I85 in the Carolina's. Can't speak for anywhere else in the country but it's bad here.
 
Stevo24 said:
I know some don’t want to hear it, but until proven otherwise winter is over for most of us outside of the mountains. And I mean that as it pertains to winter weather. I’m sure there will be some cold spells. But I’d be willing to bet we don’t even see anymore fantasy snows on the Euro or GFS from here on out.
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You are either being funny or you are stupid.... How much money do you wish to loose? Just let me know.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
There is actually plenty of data for GSP. I've done the research trust me. Double digit years used to occur here on average every 5 years. Even during the 30s 40s and 50s double digit years were very common even though there were some bad stretches in there. Now it's been 32 years since the last double digit season. CLT and RDU are doing better but I think each one of those are pushing 20 years now. That has never happened in any stretch dating back as far as records go. Now we can argue 150 years of climate data is nothing and that's fine. Maybe this has happened before. But we can't know. All we can know is what's recorded and snowfall averages are plummeting along I85 in the Carolina's. Can't speak for anywhere else in the country but it's bad here.
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This is the kind of post folks want to see. It’s interesting. And is an actual discussion and not just whining.
 
atlwx said:
This is the kind of post folks want to see. It’s interesting. And is an actual discussion and not just whining.
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It doesn’t take a bunch of numbers and research to know this is the case unless you are just blind or don’t live here. But I do appreciate @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy for taking the time to type it out so you can read it.
 
SD said:
I'd lean towards winter being extended this year versus an early spring
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if you're leaning, get to cleaning!

joking aside. I'm expecting whip-lash and a rough spring with severe threats. No evidence other than what made it to back of mind from what other, more knowledgable folks have said.

And prolly wet, but only cuz I'm having a house built. which is about as dumb as broadly saying "winter is over", but it would figure in my circumstance.
 
Stevo24 said:
It doesn’t take a bunch of numbers and research to know this is the case unless you are just blind or don’t live here. But I do appreciate @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy for taking the time to type it out so you can read it.
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Yes. I don't live in SC. But I am in the SE (next door, really). But you said "winter storms are over for most of us this winter".

I get the frustration. I was going through the same thing, what, 3 weeks ago now? And yes, it does seem like things are different. I just haven't taken the time to do that level of looking for the Atlanta area. And I don't fully trust my memory.

Clearly, you don't really believe it's over. You'd have moved on already. We know damn good and well that I, you, and others will be here until mid March, regardless.

Would love nothing more than to see you buried before the winter is over (and everyone else who has missed out).
 
atlwx said:
I see tons of folks saying "like it used to". Depending on when they were born and how much snow they got in their childhood or around other life experiences, it's going to impact their memory around it. And of course older folks say this stuff and younger folks just latch onto it (confirmation bias) and take it at face value.

Unless you've looked at actual climate history and can back it up, just stop with the "like it used to". It seems clear climate change has some impact, but it's still too difficult to know how exactly. Extremes has always been mentioned as a possibility. Not just broad "expect warmer winters".
Click to expand...
From what I’ve looked into, there is some validity to saying it “doesn’t snow as much as it used to” but it also isn’t nearly to the degree many people think. White Christmases have always been an extreme rarity in our areas, for example, despite some people thinking they used to happen with some regularity. A lot of us remember some big storms from our childhoods and fill in the gaps of our memory and assume every winter was like that when it just wasn’t. Anecdotally, I remember a lot of snow from my childhood, then I look at the actual data and realize the 1990s were a snowless hellhole aside from the Superstorm and the Blizzard of ‘96.

The data clearly show there’s some oscillation of snowfall with cycles, too. While the long term trend has been for our snowfall averages to go down, there’s no reason the 2030s or 2040s can’t be snowier than the 2020s. Even if snowfall trends down in the long term, the shorter term fluctuations can still overwhelm them.

The 1900s decade wasn’t good for snowfall in NC, for example, even though on average it snowed more in the early 20th century than it does now.

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superjames1992 said:
From what I’ve looked into, there is some validity to saying it “doesn’t snow as much as it used to” but it also isn’t nearly to the degree many people think. White Christmases have always been an extreme rarity in our areas, for example, despite some people thinking they used to happen with some regularity. A lot of us remember some big storms from our childhoods and fill in the gaps of our memory and assume every winter was like that when it just wasn’t. Anecdotally, I remember a lot of snow from my childhood, then I look at the actual data and realize the 1990s were a snowless hellhole aside from the Superstorm and the Blizzard of ‘96.

The data clearly show there’s some oscillation of snowfall with cycles, too. While the long term trend has been for our snowfall averages to go down, there’s no reason the 2030s or 2040s can’t be snowier than the 2020s. Even if snowfall trends down in the long term, the shorter term fluctuations can still overwhelm them.

The 1900s decade wasn’t good for snowfall in NC, for example, even though on average it snowed more in the early 20th century than it does now.

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yes. and betting a similar story here in Atlanta/north Georgia. Would be interesting to see those oscillations. I know they don't have a "pattern". But would be cool to see it put together in a way that lets you see it easily. I may or may not ever get around to that, but I'll definitely post it if I ever do.

But this all fits with my lifetime of experience here (Atlanta born, raised and lived all my life aside from a year in the UK). We broke a 7 year drought (on more than a meager dusting), and it seemed an unusually long time. Previously, it seemed like the longest was somewhere around 3 years. And you could almost count on not going more than 1 or 2 years without snow. And definitely felt like you could always count on some flurries every year (even that seems rare). And it seems like y'all up in NC ALWAYS had something going on every winter. So much so, I considered moving there numerous times 10+ years ago (back in the TW glory days).

Hoping this year was not the odd one out (for Atlanta). Would be nice to go into another one of those oscillations. Think it's totally reasonable to believe the shorter term fluctuations will continue despite a long term downward trend. But only time will tell.

Honestly, I went into this winter expecting that 7 year drought to continue and become 8. It did seem a reasonable thing to think (as some others continue to think who haven't been as lucky). But wow. That assumption was wrong. Maybe not as much snow as hoped, but it still wound up being 4.75" I never expected. But outside of maybe piling on one or two times where everyone just lost their cool in frustration, I don't just say "winter is canceled" cuz a storm didn't go my way.
 
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atlwx said:
yes. and betting a similar story here in Atlanta/north Georgia. Would be interesting to see those oscillations. I know they don't have a "pattern". But would be cool to see it put together in a way that lets you see it easily. I may or may not ever get around to that, but I'll definitely post it if I ever do.

But this all fits with my lifetime of experience here (Atlanta born, raised and lived all my life aside from a year in the UK). We broke a 7 year drought (on more than a meager dusting), and it seemed an unusually long time. Previously, it seemed like the longest was somewhere around 3 years. And you could almost count on not going more than 1 or 2 years without snow. And definitely felt like you could always count on some flurries every year (even that seems rare). And it seems like y'all up in NC ALWAYS had something going on every winter. So much so, I considered moving there numerous times 10+ years ago (back in the TW glory days).

Hoping this year was not the odd one out (for Atlanta). Would be nice to go into another one of those oscillations. Think it's totally reasonable to believe the shorter term fluctuations will continue despite a long term downward trend. But only time will tell.

Honestly, I went into this winter expecting that 7 year drought to continue and become 8. It did seem a reasonable thing to think (as some others continue to think who haven't been as lucky). But wow. That assumption was wrong. Maybe not as much snow as hoped, but it still wound up being 4.75" I never expected. But outside of maybe piling on one or two times where everyone just lost their cool in frustration, I don't just say "winter is canceled" cuz a storm didn't go my way.
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Growing up in North Georgia in the '90s I was so envious of North Carolina because they always got snow that's for sure.
 
Chazwin said:
What? The 90s were horrible overall for snow in most of NC.
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lol. I’m pretty sure there were some rounding errors here in GA. We didn’t differentiate NC regions so much. All I remember is NC maps had more pretty colors than we ever did.
 
Pops said:
We had our fun fellas..now let's warm up and deluge!!!
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Deluge sooner than later please. Kill the colors on the drought map. Then just go normal so I’m not dreading construction delays. I’m so done with this house we have been renting. I can’t take another full summer with the junky AC situation here.
 
atlwx said:
Deluge sooner than later please. Kill the colors on the drought map. Then just go normal so I’m not dreading construction delays. I’m so done with this house we have been renting. I can’t take another full summer with the junky AC situation here.
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Building a house?
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Lots of snow in North GA in the Early 90s
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Yes they were. Late 90s we’re pretty bare. We managed to get some about every year but nothing like the early 90s. Early 2000s continued that but 2010-2018 were awesome. Multiple double digit seasons. The Halcyon days of snow.
 
atlwx said:
yes. and betting a similar story here in Atlanta/north Georgia. Would be interesting to see those oscillations. I know they don't have a "pattern". But would be cool to see it put together in a way that lets you see it easily. I may or may not ever get around to that, but I'll definitely post it if I ever do.

But this all fits with my lifetime of experience here (Atlanta born, raised and lived all my life aside from a year in the UK). We broke a 7 year drought (on more than a meager dusting), and it seemed an unusually long time. Previously, it seemed like the longest was somewhere around 3 years. And you could almost count on not going more than 1 or 2 years without snow. And definitely felt like you could always count on some flurries every year (even that seems rare). And it seems like y'all up in NC ALWAYS had something going on every winter. So much so, I considered moving there numerous times 10+ years ago (back in the TW glory days).

Hoping this year was not the odd one out (for Atlanta). Would be nice to go into another one of those oscillations. Think it's totally reasonable to believe the shorter term fluctuations will continue despite a long term downward trend. But only time will tell.

Honestly, I went into this winter expecting that 7 year drought to continue and become 8. It did seem a reasonable thing to think (as some others continue to think who haven't been as lucky). But wow. That assumption was wrong. Maybe not as much snow as hoped, but it still wound up being 4.75" I never expected. But outside of maybe piling on one or two times where everyone just lost their cool in frustration, I don't just say "winter is canceled" cuz a storm didn't go my way.
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Yeah, I received ultimately probably about 3" more snow than what I was realistically expecting at my house (I have no clue what the total was with January 10th, but it was probably more like 0.5 instead of the 1" at the airport, and then I may well have had up to 2.5" with last week).

While I'd like to have the possibility of tracking a big one that isn't so suppressed, I'll be fine if we do ultimately move on to spring (which I have some doubts of since January has been so cold, I think we warm up for a week, but it probably won't be as sticky).

I really didn't expect to see the type of powder snow I saw back in January 2014 again and honestly don't expect to see it again for another 10 years or so unless I travel to Breckenridge or something in the winter.

You can put me down as another person who thought the 2010-2015 winters were awesome, and they were for differing reasons here in each case.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
There is actually plenty of data for GSP. I've done the research trust me. Double digit years used to occur here on average every 5 years. Even during the 30s 40s and 50s double digit years were very common even though there were some bad stretches in there. Now it's been 32 years since the last double digit season. CLT and RDU are doing better but I think each one of those are pushing 20 years now. That has never happened in any stretch dating back as far as records go. Now we can argue 150 years of climate data is nothing and that's fine. Maybe this has happened before. But we can't know. All we can know is what's recorded and snowfall averages are plummeting along I85 in the Carolina's. Can't speak for anywhere else in the country but it's bad here.
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I live in the southern Upstate, and grew up in the 60s and 70s and I would say that's likely correct, although I'm going by memory. I definitely can associate at least one significant winter storm, mostly snowstorms with every year of school starting from forth grade, and that alone is nine consecutive years. Hmmm...... Do we have nine consecutive years anymore of significant winter storms?
 
Just grab a county map and pop it in any art app or tool these days. I prefer Photoshop, but it costs. A free alternative would be PAINT dot net or Gimp.
 
superjames1992 said:
From what I’ve looked into, there is some validity to saying it “doesn’t snow as much as it used to” but it also isn’t nearly to the degree many people think. White Christmases have always been an extreme rarity in our areas, for example, despite some people thinking they used to happen with some regularity. A lot of us remember some big storms from our childhoods and fill in the gaps of our memory and assume every winter was like that when it just wasn’t. Anecdotally, I remember a lot of snow from my childhood, then I look at the actual data and realize the 1990s were a snowless hellhole aside from the Superstorm and the Blizzard of ‘96.

The data clearly show there’s some oscillation of snowfall with cycles, too. While the long term trend has been for our snowfall averages to go down, there’s no reason the 2030s or 2040s can’t be snowier than the 2020s. Even if snowfall trends down in the long term, the shorter term fluctuations can still overwhelm them.

The 1900s decade wasn’t good for snowfall in NC, for example, even though on average it snowed more in the early 20th century than it does now.

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That's true but we've clearly lost the big years. The averages are dropping because the double digits seasons are gone. That started in the 90s in GSP and by this chart in CLT it did also. There was the one exception in 2004 for CLT. But it's clear how common big years were all through history up until the 90s. Looking back at GSP double digit storms have always been uncommon. The big years were multiple hits. Some had hits in Dec, Jan and Feb to get those numbers. I know wall to wall cold has probably always been uncommon but it is clear the pattern oscillated more back then and gave multiple windows all though winter. Now its clear we can hold favorable patterns long anymore. This year has been an anomaly, not the normal. Where the old days winters like this were much more common it seems
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SD said:
Would be nice to know what programs are used by those that make maps
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Yeah it's hard trying to figure this all out. There are no real resources that go over tools or how to adopt them for the weather world. People just seem to know how to use all these things. I've always used Paint, but it doesn't look nearly as good as some of these other images that are put out.
 
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