ForsythSnow
Moderator
I remain skeptical for the next 24 hours. Once those are up I will make up my mind on whether to join you in the "We suck" camp or not. Weirder things have happened.
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Misc Cold Season Complaining
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Twister
Member
Models has already upped the cold push some from what we were looking at a week ago. We went From looking at 10° lows to now seeing 15-18° Highs in 30s instead of 20s we were looking at. I'm not trying to wishcast here cause I hope we don't get any of that Snow and cold
You’re helping me hold out hope.
I hate the way they advertise this Mickey mouse cold. This is not too cold to snow
This is the modern day cold standard
This is the modern day cold standard
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
I remember a few days ago when it was stated dozens of times: “suppression is the least of our concerns”
Bill Smith
Member
It's weird when posters from other regions come here to talk about this region. Maybe find a board for your region seems like they find joy in others missing out
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Really wish I had the faith that @rburrel2 did.
I'm slightly intrigued by the short range models, but y'all should've known that there was a big risk of "poof" here with it being very possible as recently as yesterday morning that this general area gets its best pure snow event since Jan 2014.
I'm slightly intrigued by the short range models, but y'all should've known that there was a big risk of "poof" here with it being very possible as recently as yesterday morning that this general area gets its best pure snow event since Jan 2014.
Bill Smith
Member
Heard on this board the winter storm products for this area were irresponsible and going to bust
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Bill Smith
Member
You are the professional!
It was
we don’t lose storms to our south especially with Mickey mouse cold in front of our moisture. My lowest low next week is 18 degrees. Whoopee brrrr I better buy a mink coat
If there's one silver lining, atleast the Ukmet has trended towards less precip even for the Gulf Coast. Hopefully other models fall in line. Losing storms to New Orleans or Savannah is far more humiliating than losing storms to Memphis,Little Rock, or even Shreveport.
NoSnowATL
Member
rburrel2
Member
I would kill to be in your spot right now. I think you do really well. No guarantees of course... but you really can't ask for a much better situation to be in. You don't even have any concern for temps! That's such a luxury, lol.
Yeah it'll be hard to fall that far. At least I hope it would, at least in our lifetime! But this decade is 1.8 do far which is actually less than CAE averages smdh
Storm5
Member
This place is gonna be lit soon
Not sure they have done "badly" just correcting along to what's going to actually happen. Now if they are wrong in 'outcomes' you might want to write some reflective analysis on that.
Twister
Member
Lit soon? Hell I think half the members in here has been lit for a while now
I would never write an analysis about these models.
The report would literally read:
They're all really bad outside 24 hours, use Hi-Res short-range instead.
I’m going to keep hating on -- but I’m a fan. Dude is better than good
Maybe for your backyard. We have a NWS map with the 7" chance on it and a local office that says "we have no idea, we wait for short range hi res to come in"
Hell I'm sure these areas have been the screw zone more than once for a winter. But what I can guarantee is it hasn't ever been the screw zone after 2 snowless winters. Why? Because 2 snowless winters had never happened and now we follow it up with this! That's why it's so painful smdh
Or the report could read: Models suck. When's the next storm coming?
I’m pulling for y’all.There’s not even much of a pivot showing up anymore so totals that high aren’t going to be easy for anyone
buckinbronco
Member
Interior Southeast botching this one when all the ingredients were seemingly right there for taking…
This one will sting for sure, but glad to see the coastal regions will most likely cash in for a rare event.
This one will sting for sure, but glad to see the coastal regions will most likely cash in for a rare event.
Or the report could read: Models suck. When's the next storm coming?
I've been guilty of always saying "not again" when it comes to these events. I am going to have to do some self-discipline to not look at weather forums and discussion about models until 1-2 days out from now on.
I think part of me, for some reason, liked be able to get what I needed to be prepared before the rush on the stores and all of that. Those days are mostly over with Amazon and now social media posting weather models so far in advance these days.
So hopefully, when this thing inevitably screws everyone over in such a great setup, with just really bad timing, then I can just do what Allan does and just stay away until it's literally on radar about to happen.
Edit:
Phase one is complete. I have removed the NBM shortcut link on my browser and other long range crap models like experimentals etc. They're not needed. I will have everything I need in just the short-range bookmarks.
RDUHeatIsland
Member
Banger euro incoming 
EastmanGAWX
Member
The NAM absolutely obliterated my location, I just want at least an inch and will call it a winter. However, those NAM totals depicted for Central Georgia are right up there with the two historical storms that are the gold standards for this area..1973 and 1914.
RollTide18
Member
My first time being under a Winter Storm Watch in 11 years
Pretty cool
Pretty cool
I was thinking about this yesterday and not sure when it changed. I’m 55 and grew up in Cary and can say I’ve been fortunate to have been through most of the storms we talk about.
Feb ‘73 - don’t remember
Match ‘80
Jan ‘88
March ‘93 - was living in Marietta, Ga
Jan ‘00
Jan ‘02
The first 30 years I saw some great storms but the last 25 has been beyond a snow drought. I did join my first weather forum in the 2006/2007 timeframe so that could have something to do with it.
Steady snow here at Beech. Snow globe material, hopefully can luck out and bring to the Triangle.
JHS
Member
The models were great 5 days out and all the way to verification time for Helene. I knew that Sunday night we were going to be hit, and we were. The models locked in that far out and never made any major changes. They are awful for winter though.
These best/worst case scenario graphics being put out are so misleading. I bet 99% of the general public has no idea what they mean.
LickWx
Member
Co2 is much much higher than it was in 2014, 10 years from now a setup like this weeks maybe gets us highs in the 40s only , by then I-81 in Virginia is the new I-20
Plus UHI, just think how much of your area got built up since 2014
Trending a little drier for the Gulf Coast. Still will be a very significant for them unless models really trend dry for them at the last minute. Atleast us inland area along I-20 and I-40 corridor are no longer at risk of losing this storm to Savannah or Charleston since they are trending towards cold and dry as well.
Rburrel keeping the hope alive. I’ve gotten the white flag and am waiting on the eps before I potentially raise it in the air.
LickWx
Member
I as someone rooting for it not to snow knows better, not till we are under 24 will I concede it won’t snow
NCSNOW
Member
Another PV drop pattern and another whiff. Wash rinse repeat