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Misc Cold Season Complaining

@griteater trying to talk me off of the ledge. Thank you! You saved me till18z.


Jump Jumping GIF
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The longer I sit here the more I wonder if the models have really pegged a coastal/gulf snowstorm 6-7 days out..doubt it
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Honestly to me, as someone who grew up in the Sandhills and has also lived on the coast for a long time this has really got a coastal plain/sandhills snowstorm look to it. I definitely don’t think it’s going to work out for immediate coastal regions (ILM) though I’d love to be wrong. In Southern Pines this is exactly the look I’d always fantasize about. Idk maybe I’m just being a weenie but I’m considering heading there for this.
 
J1C1111 said:
No shocker there. They obviously think they know more than any of us all looking at the models. They are going to ride cold and dry until the bitter end and only forecast winter precip until they have to. I guess they have to have every model showing something but they are always so conservative when It comes to winter weather. I hope they can get brought back down to earth one day with a good snow storm.
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to there defense i swear they used to be bullish on everything and have to walk back down the ladder alot. Here lately either theyve got some new ppl or something idk.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'd like to say the nw trend still applies, but it's been so long since we've been able to test that theory with a modeled storm so far South idk anymore. It clearly still applies when it screws us, not sure about this case
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Still a few things that can keep it north. Full phase, any sort of ULL interaction out of the pacific, cold press moderates, and our last line of defense; precip shield should be more expansive.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Still a few things that can keep it north. Full phase, any sort of ULL interaction out of the pacific, cold press moderates, and our last line of defense; precip shield should be more expansive.
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Yeah I know we've watched our share of n/s dominant storms the last several years. They all seem to dig more sw at this range every cycle until about a day or two out. And the cold is definitely usually overdone. But man I can't imagine missing south now after what we've dealt with the last 3 years and how last week evaporated right before our eyes
 
Shawn said:
The fact that the nws in cae is saying even the central Midlands could be dry should give pause to anyone talking nw trend
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Agree re: pause for anyone who surmises we'll see a NW trend. With that said, CAE NWS, IMO, tend to be rather conservative.
 
A split of the Canadian ensemble (handles this kind of air mass/baroclinic better) and the EPS is what I think happens.

That's the one to put in your blender @bouncycorn. With the EPS weighted higher of course.

I'd assume mby gets 6 or 7 inches in that scenario and I'm all in
 
If you don’t see it snow did it really snow? The enjoyable part for me is watching it. I’m pulling for a day time snow. Not overnight.
 
Disco_Lemonade said:
Honestly to me, as someone who grew up in the Sandhills and has also lived on the coast for a long time this has really got a coastal plain/sandhills snowstorm look to it. I definitely don’t think it’s going to work out for immediate coastal regions (ILM) though I’d love to be wrong. In Southern Pines this is exactly the look I’d always fantasize about. Idk maybe I’m just being a weenie but I’m considering heading there for this.
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I agree, I have lived around the Fayetteville area a very long time and it's these types of setups where we can score a good winter event. We can get some good ones (although rare) as we are close enough to the coast for events like this potential one coming up yet far enough that temps don't become as much of an issue.
I have installed some security cameras and excited to use them when on snow watch, it beats running to a window or door and looking by a light!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
The truly sobering part of this is that, if next week's storm doesn't deliver, we would have gone through Jan and much of dec below normal, with almost no snow to show for it. Hard to deal with that is that ends up reality.
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It's harder to deal with because of how the last 2 years have been. It's unfathomable to go 3 years here with 0.5 inches of snow. But at this time that's a real possibility because next week doesn't look good here regardless of what some may tell you.
 
I for one am NOT cheering for a suppressed solution at this point in time. Time for the storm to move back home. If it ends up amped and we rain/sleet/ice so be it but it’s hard for me to watch storms go north and south of me but especially SOUTH.
 
Safe to say I jumped the gun on cancelling this storm system on Monday/Tuesday. Things are trending up for someone in the SE to get significant snowstorm out of this. It may simply be a matter who get it or if we can somehow turn this into a near broad wide snowstorm, which would be amazing. Things could change back to being no storm at all, but that appears unlikely as of now.
 
Shawn said:
Ah yes the wishcasting cae out of snow and into sleet continues

so close to deleting my account here 😂
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I’m hoping that no matter what we can get mostly snow maybe a little sleet. I know it’s been a long time single C Ga and CAE have had a big storm. 2018 we did pretty good but 2014 was really the last time my area got a good one.

I guess we all get a little greedy when a big ones on the line 😂
 
EastmanGAWX said:
I for one am hoping that any semblance of a NW trend stops, I'm standing right now to break a near fifteen year streak of not receiving a snow fall of one inch and could care less about locations being upset that have a climatology that basically favors snow every year.
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Hey I totally get it man. I've been telling people here we'll have other storms but im scared for y'all being the bullseye this far out too. We weren't even supposed to get snow 5 days out

Maybe the Arctic air will buck the trend here but I dunno
 
Brent said:
Hey I totally get it man. I've been telling people here we'll have other storms but im scared for y'all being the bullseye this far out too. We weren't even supposed to get snow 5 days out
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Being in the bullseye 5 days out never works out does it ?
 
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