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Misc Cold Season Complaining

JHS said:
What this board needs weatherwise is a Jan 1988 repeat. That one nailed almost everyone along and north of I-20 from Mississippi to SC while also giving the Tenn and NC area a big hit too.
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Those days are likely long gone, the chances of seeing storms like that again are slim to none
 
Shawn said:
I'd hate to be a newbie here who is just wondering what's going to happen in their back yard.

This board has become one state dominant, as have all the rest of boards, and what looks good that way messes up the I-20 corridor.

If you live around I-20, east of the Midsouth, you want the weaker solutions and you don't want that thing they're talking about "coming out" completely and slowing the system down. You want it to come in fast when it's cold enough and weaker.

The 18z GEFS and the 18z Euro/EPS is showing the idea of what you want. The further North the heavy precipitation shield, the worse off you will be with mid-level temperatures.
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Thanks for keeping us all updated. Hopefully we can all win a little bit and avoid a bad ice storm to a lot of people
 
Running a community forum isn't exactly roses and peaches. Decisions are a lot harder than they seem on the surface.

Two important points about splitting the regions up are:
- You risk alienating members in much smaller regions. The catchall "outside the SE" thread proves this. It's basically dead.
- You hurt the user experience with so many threads all over the place. You end up getting lots of cross posts and wrong posts in the wrong place.

When forum communities have low engagement rate, the site dies. Lets say we have a NE Georgia section. What happens when it's just 4 or 5 quality posts a day during an event? It dies off and either the members go elsewhere or they post in a general pattern thread (kind of how we have it setup now anyway).

There are only two of us with any real activity in the Southeast as a whole. Us and AmericanWX.

AmericanWX can split and do what they need to do over all because they have a larger footprint across the entire United States, dating back to EasternWX days and all of that stuff. All of their regions will make up for lesser traffic regions and vice versa.

We chose to hyper focus on the Southeast, and on the back-end there are talks of maybe expanding one day. The thing about that is, we lose what makes the community centralized and unique. Many people have expressed they're against anything like it, even.

I thought about reopening a community just for South Carolina not too long ago. I realize the site will be dead. There are a good many members from SC sure, but overall the raw quality posters focusing on SC are nothing compared to NC for example. If I reopened a community based around SC, it would just be a lot of people posting pictures and asking questions and me having to give personal forecasts.

I've done it before and know how it goes. Hell, it took a long time to get @Stormsfury here, a guy who has no met tag but can run circles around most professional meteorologists in this area of the SE.
 
Broken024 said:
In the upstate your weather should be closer to the NC weather for CAD events
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In a CAD situation people in SC and GA would need to care a LOT about what is happening in NC. Case in point for SC. Back in 1987 a big sleet storm hit the upstate, but at dawn it was around 35-37 and rain here. At the same time GSO had 27 degrees and no precip falling. I pretty much knew it would get colder down here which it of course it did, going all the way down to 24. Now if GSO had been 35-37 our chance for winter precip would have been around 0% that day.
 
I can definitely say that my preferred outcome is probably closer to what the GEFS/EPS is showing at 18z, but I do have a feeling I know what's coming.

It's going to fit sadly if so (and would to the north of me) as I was joking about an ice storm striking when they "just finish up with storm cleanup" (they actually haven't though).

Needless to say, my preferred comp back to winter 2014 is definitely late January 2014 and not mid-February 2014.
 
Shawn said:
Running a community forum isn't exactly roses and peaches. Decisions are a lot harder than they seem on the surface.

Two important points about splitting the regions up are:
- You risk alienating members in much smaller regions. The catchall "outside the SE" thread proves this. It's basically dead.
- You hurt the user experience with so many threads all over the place. You end up getting lots of cross posts and wrong posts in the wrong place.

When forum communities have low engagement rate, the site dies. Lets say we have a NE Georgia section. What happens when it's just 4 or 5 quality posts a day during an event? It dies off and either the members go elsewhere or they post in a general pattern thread (kind of how we have it setup now anyway).

There are only two of us with any real activity in the Southeast as a whole. Us and AmericanWX.

AmericanWX can split and do what they need to do over all because they have a larger footprint across the entire United States, dating back to EasternWX days and all of that stuff. All of their regions will make up for lesser traffic regions and vice versa.

We chose to hyper focus on the Southeast, and on the back-end there are talks of maybe expanding one day. The thing about that is, we lose what makes the community centralized and unique. Many people have expressed they're against anything like it, even.

I thought about reopening a community just for South Carolina not too long ago. I realize the site will be dead. There are a good many members from SC sure, but overall the raw quality posters focusing on SC are nothing compared to NC for example. If I reopened a community based around SC, it would just be a lot of people posting pictures and asking questions and me having to give personal forecasts.

I've done it before and know how it goes. Hell, it took a long time to get @Stormsfury here, a guy who has no met tag but can run circles around most professional meteorologists in this area of the SE.
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I agree with all of this great post. You 1000% right about stormsfury too. He has no met tag but knows as much as many of them do. He is someone you listen to.
 
SnowNiner said:
Lol, @1300m was Dr no on the last storm. He's the DGEX on this one. Will he go 2 for 2?? Yes, yes he will.
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I'll definitely admit I hated the last setup and I love this one. Abundant Arctic air with a massive surface high to deliver it to us. And now ensemble trends are moving in a favorable direction inside D7. Handoff to the ops being more meaningful for determining the finer details starts around D4 and then we get into the short-range guidance inside 48 hrs. The train has left the station, let's hope there's no detours!
 
SimeonNC said:
Maybe it's just fatigue from tracking the last storm for two weeks and all the emotional swings but I'm not feeling the mojo quite yet for this one.
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I dunno it could be because I've already been to Colorado and Kansas City to see a blizzard and seen snow here in the last month but like I'm not even upset we may miss out because in the past I would be 🤣

I guess I just feel like the way this winter is going well have another storm sooner or later... Heck Thursday wasn't even supposed to be our storm and it just happened
 
Twister said:
No I wouldn't cause I could care less about the weather in NC. Upstate usually gets weather coming from GA, So all I care about living in upstate is here and GA. Why the hell would I need to know what NC weather is?
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It's not about that. I know you don't care about NC specifically (nor do I beyond hoping they get something too. want everyone see snow!). It's about who would post to GA (or other regions). Watch who posts the model images and where they are located. If we had a spread of experts and reliable posters, I'd totally be on your side of this. But we don't have that. Meanwhile, maybe just use the ignore button?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Dang we got @JHS in! @Stevo24 it's gonna get mighty lonely down here if the best model on the planet is right. When you consider climbing up let me know! Might have you throw me a rope
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If things are looking good by Saturday evening I will start my climb to the top. I will sling the rope your way about 24 hours till go time. But I’m gonna douse it in kerosene just in case the wheels fall off.
 
Probably a repeat of Dec 1989 coming here and then probably a major warmup. Feb and March could very well be a repeat of 1990.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I just deleted the post because I seemed to upset quite a few people with that post. You're welcome.
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Folks don't like to be called... well... you remember the last sentence. But it's all good! Everyone's nerves get a little shot out (especially when models go wonky and the illusion of "a sure thing" disappears). Hope you and everyone sees some wintery fun!
 
Here's the ridiculous thing that shouldn't have to be said, but if you are a met or very seasoned weather enthusiast (and we have some good ones), guess what, their specialty is going to be where they live. If that happens to be one area over another then work harder to get skilled individuals in your area to join the board or post more. Stormlover post maps for the Al crowd all the time, I don't get upset about that at all, glad he's doing it. Geez people
 
I just want everyone to sit back and think about this. Since you have been doing this how many times have you been in the bullseye at day 5, 6, 7 but ended up SE of the bullseye or in rain? Then think a little more how many times at day 5, 6, 7 have you seen a storm to your SE but it moved north in the last 96 hours.
 
SD said:
I just want everyone to sit back and think about this. Since you have been doing this how many times have you been in the bullseye at day 5, 6, 7 but ended up SE of the bullseye or in rain? Then think a little more how many times at day 5, 6, 7 have you seen a storm to your SE but it moved north in the last 96 hours.
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You are using that thing called logic and experience again….
 
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