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Misc Cold Season Complaining

rburrel2 said:
I'm sure you've analyzed it closer than me for CAE... but I don't see how you guys avoid a warning criteria ice event.
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It's a fight between 32-33F and 29-31F on modeling. KCAE literally keep saying they don't know.

I expect a Winter Weather Advisory at minimum to be issued around 3PM for CAE/Lexington and the I-20 corridor proper.
 
Don’t want to clutter up the other thread with this drivel, but I really really don’t understand 1” for the 90th percentile snow total for RDU. I’d certainly go 0” for the 10th percentile, but for 90th percentile I’d have to go for a few inches. Just seems there is legit model support for more than 1”, to the point where I don’t see how 1” is the max potential amount, essentially. But they don’t pay me the big bucks for this, so what do I know lol? I could easily see RDU getting 2” even if they mix. Sleet can still give you 2:1-3:1 ratios.

/end vent 😂
 
superjames1992 said:
Don’t want to clutter up the other thread with this drivel, but I really really don’t understand 1” for the 90th percentile snow total for RDU. I’d certainly go 0” for the 10th percentile, but for 90th percentile I’d have to go for a few inches. Just seems there is legit model support for more than 1”, to the point where I don’t see how 1” is the max potential amount, essentially. But they don’t pay me the big bucks for this, so what do I know lol? I could easily see RDU getting 2” even if they mix. Sleet can still give you 2:1-3:1 ratios.

/end vent 😂
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I’m the same way in rock hill our 90th is <1. Don’t see that being the 90th probably a few here as well. I think it’s just major uncertainty across the board
 
It's like they think if they under predict and correct higher as the event is starting, they were never wrong.

superjames1992 said:
Don’t want to clutter up the other thread with this drivel, but I really really don’t understand 1” for the 90th percentile snow total for RDU. I’d certainly go 0” for the 10th percentile, but for 90th percentile I’d have to go for a few inches. Just seems there is legit model support for more than 1”, to the point where I don’t see how 1” is the max potential amount, essentially. But they don’t pay me the big bucks for this, so what do I know lol? I could easily see RDU getting 2” even if they mix. Sleet can still give you 2:1-3:1 ratios.

/end vent 😂
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rburrel2 said:
It's like they think if they under predict and correct higher as the event is starting, they were never wrong.
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Yeah, I just think these probabilistic maps are the maps where they should be “honest” (and maybe they are being). Then again, a bunch of smooth brains would probably take the 90th percentile map and start spreading it like that’s their actual forecast. Maybe I’m just a delusional weenie. 🌭
 
rburrel2 said:
lmao, what's wrong with this guy? I can't tell if he's just a cynical snow weenie or if he just has a fetish for trolling snow lovers.
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ya'll are ruthless with Brad. He's just being real and setting expectations. I imagine it's no fun to be on the receiving end of a whiffed forecast that overpromises. I know it ain't what folks want to hear, and I'd be pretty flamed too (if I lived up that way). But I get it. I respect him for it.
 
atlwx said:
ya'll are ruthless with Brad. He's just being real and setting expectations. I imagine it's no fun to be on the receiving end of a whiffed forecast that overpromises. I know it ain't what folks want to hear, and I'd be pretty flamed too (if I lived up that way). But I get it. I respect him for it.
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Get the torches!
 
J.C. said:
KFFC should wait to issue warnings or advisories until after the storm passes, that way they can be 100% correct.
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Dead. And prolly will die again soon. The gathering of torches have also been called for me defending Brad. lol
 
I really hope this ends up with more snow and sleet for my area rather than ZR. Could get real nasty if ZR overperforms.
 
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Johnston County is under a Winter Storm Warning. You've got to be kidding me. The HRRR flips me to rain for several hours after the initial frozen slopfest with little to no accumulation. I guess they aren't fans of the HRRR.
 
Clouds starting to move into AL. the longer they hold off for GA,SC, NC, the better. We want them to arrive right before dawn, but that may be asking too much.
 
One of my favorite things about the storms threads, especially when a storm gets close, is the fussing and/or excitement about the watches, advisories, and warning. Man, people get so mad if they aren't under one and so pumped when they are. I've always felt like being under one is a jinx, especially when put out so early for a storm that is far from a stable forecast.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
My NWS forecast is steadily going down yesterday 3-5, this morning 2-4, then 1-3 and now 1-2. If it would just stop there I would be ok but I know where it ends up.
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Update now my local NWS forecast here just went down to up to an half inch. They are seeing things get worse not better. And rain mostly on Friday.
 
This is the most uncertain I’ve been 12-15 hours out from a storm lol. So many outcomes seem possible. A little worried that the biggest trend is towards more ice. Mainly just hoping for enough snow up front (I’d be happy with 1”) for my boys (7yo) and I to have some fun with. We’ve been talking about snow every winter since they could talk.
 
Shawn said:
Clouds starting to move into AL. the longer they hold off for GA,SC, NC, the better. We want them to arrive right before dawn, but that may be asking too much.
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Cirrus near us, stratus coming at us.
 
I feel FFC is being super conservative in their forecasting, probably in response to their mishandling of that storm a couple years ago where they predicted several inches and we got next to nothing.
 
SD said:
I live .2 miles away from the dollar general sorry if this is banter but do you think that I'm going to get less snow because of the parking lot?
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As a certified heat island expert I’ve determined the DG parking lot and your driveway to be massive UHI sources
 
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